CoastalWx

Lol not me. Not unless this moves 40 miles north.

Gfs definitely better. Decent event s coast.

RRFS is a warning event pretty much on S coast lol.

That’s assuming it comes more north. Because right now I don’t see that.

I’d like to see Reggie hold. I know it’s more aggressive.

It’s more about the arm of confluence. As long as that can lift north it will help bring that snow shield north. But it’s only going to shift so much. I’d like it to shift more since I think some dry air will try to work into this area.

I wasn’t taking QPF literally just looking at overall structure. Another nudge would put you in the game. 3K is probably about 3” at your house.

Yep exactly how I felt.

3K Nam a little beefier. Congrats Chief Wiggum on that.

It looked better overall to me. But it was also the most paltry at 12z.

Boosted the mid levels I think to give the S coast a decent event.

Close to a south coast smash

AI and EpS ensembles both in good agreement after the 20th. So weird to see a bulging ridge in the Midwest like that, but they have it. Definitely clipper and/or overrunning potential. Also can’t rule out a cutter too. Why can’t we get that 1500 miles more west lol.

A lot of those events just didn’t have the confluence that we have with this one. It would start out as a wave moving off of NC and just tickle NW each run.

That was freaking ravaging.

I guess an inch would look festive.

Both 6z euro op and euro ai were decent at 6z. Euro needs to hold serve because seeing hires models outside of Reggie kind of meh makes me nervous.

12z euro AI very close to 6z.

Except the last one

Went from a coating to maybe an inch on gfs.

Nope

You definitely get the golden weed whacker award for this period. I’ve had the honor of holding that for a few years now.

Reggie cut back just a bit but still aggressive. Tough to buy in.

It’s the one thing that’s been bugging me and for some reason it’s going right up my tailpipe. I can’t believe we’re gonna waste this awesome airmass that we’ve had for over two weeks.

Well, there’s no doubt I’ve let my opinions out on this pattern. However, after the warm-up next week, I think there is a legit shot of some overrunning before Christmas. I was just looking a little bit more at the ensemble and you can definitely get a sense based on the members and six hour QPF that there’s some semblance of moisture trying to run into some of the cold area that we’ll have in place or at least trying to leak down from Canada. It could easily cut, however I think if there’s any shot it’s probably like the 21st to the 24th or something like that.