CoastalWx

No, I expect some Ying and yang that far out but what I’m trying to tell Wolfie and others is that I want to see consistency in a decent pacific. So let’s see this 12 Z run hang on and either stay flat or improve as we go forward in tim. That 12z EPS depicts a way better pacific. You now have a more classic negative EPO Ridge, which dumps cold air into the plains and out west, but that allows it to be #1 a very sharp cold blast and #2 would eventually spill east after stem winder. I think it’s still points to something after the first week, that hasn’t changed. I just want to see those types of improvements continue, and also it’s possible we squeeze in something over the interior perhaps around December 1.

It’s been ying and yang run to run. I mentioned yesterday I want consistency, but again it also points to after first week for more sustained stuff. Maybe we sneak something interior near 12/1 or so.

Big changes in EPS. We take.

Nice interior NoP GFS run.

I don’t expect it but if the above happens as you said I’m out until the first 70F dews.

Euro has some QPF too. Temps are borderline though. I dunno, been steadily inching north. Maybe higher spots above 400’ or so get something? Interesting to see what happens.

Need Tip to describe them.

Cloudburst with cloudflare

I do actually. However those a have lower accuracy scores.

That’s my point

GEFs are better with the PNA rising, but it’s the GEFS. I don’t understand why everyone is in a rush. We know how these go.

Do note that it doesn’t mean interior could get something minor and have it melted a day or two later, I’m talking about more consistent stuff.

I think that is very reasonable output from that model.

We don’t look at that. Especially for you, wait until after the first week.

AI ensembles similar too.

Weeklies better come through. lol.

Still a strong -PNA at 12/3 on EPS. As we said, gonna need to be after first week of Dec I think. That ridge is too far west in the Pacific.

Uncle Leo!!

Yeah probably. Kevin is all distraught but it doesn’t have to be 15F either.

Meh let it torch. Give everyone some good weather to travel.

So you’re saying it could be earlier? If anything you lean this occurring later than models have. Especially when you need a cooperating Pacific.

Yeah that’s been my target. Late in, or after first week. Some are having trouble accepting that.

I would just like to see the PV more towards Hudson Bay to spread the cold a little bit further east. I think there might be a better chance for more eastern Canada cold after the 5th like you said.

Yeah, that far out ensembles can be wrong, but I think that applies especially getting details like low pressure locations, etc. versus a 500 MB pattern. However, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with accepting that it could be mild next week. This is your classic EPO dump that always goes out west and in the plains first, and that implies a ridge over the east. So you also have Climo on your side along with the ensemble prediction. I don’t think that is unreasonable.

What a breathe of fresh air.