CoastalWx

Kevin thanks again for filling in the numbers for those of us who do not. I’ll look back at the log in info and try to do that myself. I like the addition of details like what Dave did.

It worked. That’s sweet.

What were your totals in other storms? I know you had 25” on the first. That’s dam good.

The natural human behavior to use any reasoning above as a way to deny or prove CC just shows you are dumb we are as a society and that we live in the dumbest time possible in our lives. We’ve become polarized with this topic and it’s become a with us or against us mentality. It’s really sad. I just want to know what is happening without being polluted by agendas. Unfortunately it’s tough Get non-biased information these days. But I digress.

How much there, Will? edit saw your text.

A lot of the mesoscale models really drove the warmth well into Maine which I found peculiar. I’m not sure why that’s the case or perhaps they didn’t give the ageostrophic component enough respect, but even a loft they looked just a little bit too warm once you get into Maine. I will say I remember thinking in my head that a small area may do well. You could see it was a long duration storm.

Yep there is no question it’s been warm and things like that are likely related to CC. I’m just approaching from a social science standpoint. It’s easy to have recent confirmation bias and blame CC. Small scale things however (like a time scale of a few months) really drive the bus.

I think there is a point, but you’ll need like 50 years of data to really see. It may be effect things like ENSO analogs etc, but you can’t pinpoint things to specific winters. The climate is very complicated and small scale things will always Trump background AGW for the near future. For example, the winters of 13-14 and 14-15 were brutal in the US. People blamed a warm pool in the GOA, but those warm pools do little to effect the pattern. Naturally cold water that is a few degrees above normal has little power to disrupt hemispheric patterns. However, if you dig deep..you would see that we had a low frequency standing wave pattern with the MJO that was conducive to 500mb ridging over west coast US. That in turn led to warm GOA sea temps. We all rushed to blame CC, but the real answer seemed to be in the tropics. Now can CC effect MJO? Perhaps and you’d need to spend some time on that. So, CC tells us to expect more things like warm temps and storms, however small scale details like ENSO, solar, PV placement etc really drive the bus.

You really have no evidence to point the finger at climate change for the reason of this winter or that winter. It is way more complicated than that, but it’s human confirmation bias that naturally allows us to do that.

It’s tough to say. On paper it’s dam ugly. But we’ve seen setups that were ugly, shift subtlety with day to day changes to something more favorable. Who knows. Prepare for boredom and hope for the best. All you can do. Hopefully the 7-8 works out.

Without really looking hard, I think the narrow area where the warming halted or did not come as far north as predicted combined with the secondary and extended snows was an excellent combo. Guidance was warming past Lewiston. I remember thinking that would be hard. I’m curious as to what you find.

Guidance was really bad with furnacing to Winni last night. It actually warmed a bit inside 495 up to Ray, but the drain was certainly in the interior. I thought we did well calling that out.

Yeah another wet year for sure. Think I’m similar for precip Steve.

Yep and with today many areas will just be AN for December. Hey Kev...how about that?

We 14.2 with another 0.1” sleet.

EPS looks pretty tough in the extended.

8-10” in york county? Over a foot seems likely.

Is Alex the blue ghost?

How do you do W.E.? How do you melt it down? I thought about doing it, but I feel like it’s futile around here with drifting.

Just like in Plymouth when you see the only place not getting snow.

We coast. Embrace wind.

It must be pounding at lava rock. Dam.

That’s impressive. What were your totals previously before this one? I forget if you cracked 22” in the early month one.

It should. Hrrr wants to flip you but I’ll be curious to see how that progresses.

How much? 1”?