It could waffle north and warmer too. I guess the one good thing is that the whole thing is weak and more or less a frontal boundary before the real good dynamics ignite rapid cyclogenesis and move the low north. So if it is weak, you can push that boundary south. On the other hand it could come close to the SNE coast and make this rather uninteresting for many. I'd pay attention north of the pike and NW of 495 for now, but verbatim that is some ice into 128 I think. Just not sure the NAM is correct.