CoastalWx

Time to embrace the torch.

Deep down he’s probably good for a siggy icing event. Unless 00z runs come in as a furnace.

I mean Kevin is on the edge there, so confidence higher NE.

The person who hypes everything and anything? Yep.

Typically union north.

As usual, because you aren’t in a good climo big ice spot, it’s good to put you in a lower confidence area.

I agree Tip. I mentioned that yesterday and how it wasn’t a fresh airmass. The 09z RAP and 12Z NAM did change that and allow more of a press and ageo flow into SNE, but other models backed off. So while I’m not as warm as some of the guidance, they might be hinting at something. Which is why I think highwr confidence in ice might be NW CT into ORH on N and NE. But it’s possible guidance trends a little colder. This isn’t like the day before MLK 2019 event where we had Ray at 12F and the Arctic hounds ready to storm eastern areas.

3” ice

I reserve the right to change that.

So you locking in upper 20s and ZR the whole time?

Let’s go gfs

They just did break freezing.

I guess we hope for Thursday after Tuesday's mess.

He’s probably in a good spot for now.

Yeah I’ll side on a track SE of Reggie too.

Ukie is about as good as the Navgem.

Reggie pretty warm. Brings low right over my head.

That’s been an issue for verification for us. We usually do reviews for larger winter events and I had to remind the group about not just going back and counting the 6hr I group.

Hate to say that.

Easy E

All these networks are going to show model outputs that are either too aggressive, or show weird holes and bullseyes because they can’t resolve certain mesoscale aspects. I honestly wouldn’t pay much attention to those graphics.

6 years ago kicked off part 1 of the icing on the cake of epicosity. Make winters great again.

That makes more sense though compared to previous NAM runs. At least to me. I don't know why it wasn't showing the drain. I didn't think interior was warming, but this may change the game near 128 and maybe even BOS.

Also means heights ahead of developing low higher/warmer.