Yeah. I think frontogenesis stuff jacks west and low level stuff with low pressure developing is further East. I’m not confident, but that’s my guess. However this is not like someone get stiffed with like .15” in between. Water for all.
I think we see two jack zones. Out west and then somewhere in the ern CT into adjacent MA and Ri or so..maybe parts of SE MA. Models sort of all over where the second batch comes in....could be a narrow zone that gets doused. Either way, I think widespread 0.75" to 1.5" with some areas maybe over 2".
I think some of those other runs were going nuts with QPF there too. Probably tried to get dynamics involved. Looks like that shifted NE on this run verbatim. Should be cool to see Saturday morning up there.
How would April and May be better predicting the NAO? I don't understand that logic. To me, that is more of a product of late winter strat warming, where we are in QBO ascension, descension, and also ENSO state.