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CoastalWx

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. If it went south again it would be closer to the GFS, but more like a 70/30 compromise to the euro right now.
  2. I did. I just don't like how it flattens out as it moves overhead. It may not mean much as the low is already matured and won't really weaken...but I don't see how it produces that much QPF in a larger area. JMHO.
  3. Yeah the Ukie amounts aren't happening. Not with a dampening s/w and occluded low.
  4. Make sure you aren't accounting for the snow today. Should do like 24 hr snowfall, not cumulative total.
  5. I say this without seeing the other guidance like CMC, Ukie, Euro so could change.
  6. It is, which is why I was sort of satisfied with the low finally off ACY unlike other runs.
  7. Ginx can still go sledding on 3" of fluff. Grandkids hitting rocks and sent to hospital with concussions.
  8. It did keep the persistence with the low east of ACY vs the other runs. I think a step in the right direction. That looks more like other models.
  9. Spoiled weenies. Wait until you all go 4 years without a 10" storm. 12" moderate.
  10. I think people expect 8-12" events to grow on trees after the last decade, but in reality they don't have a return rate that is frequent if you look at climo. When I look at that, I consider 8-12 (especially 12") to be a major event.
  11. Since when is like 8-12 with lollis to more a MDT event?
  12. Might get a lot of lingering -SN on guidance near the coast after it ends.
  13. Yeah I think 8-12 would cover many areas, maybe a narrow area getting it more where the mesoscale fronto is. I still think those north of pike may get into decent fronto. Even you Ray.
  14. NAM goes nuts for a variety of reasons..lol. I do think That area near UNV on N and E get smoked due to the mid levels closing off and going to town. That is jack zone IMO.
  15. I looked at hr 60 on 12k and 3K nam and don't see any appreciable difference.
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