CoastalWx

Yeah Steve is right. It can be underdone a bit.

Nah not yet here lol. But all good. I’d probably open them a little more inland. Maybe even Ray as long as he didn’t rip them off the wall last night.

It’s all an interesting mental game. Weenies generally adhere to those posting favorable thoughts. They hate when you talk about caution flags or anything unfavorable.

Yeah it’s dicey here, but good to see the improvement. If it ends as some snow, I’d take it and run. Hopefully a trend there.

EPS looked good I thought. If you compare it to the 12z EPS, that vorticity lobe we all spoke about develops quicker as it ejects out, under SNE.

LookS good to me.

EPS had it backing up too. Good to see.

Note graphics may be fuzzy at times.

Don’t forget the sun angle is increasing.

Probably a pattern more for you into NNE next two weeks I think. At least that’s what I would favor.

He might be right

But yeah I see what you mean, Will. Maybe timing issues.

Oh I don’t mean a closed block or anything, just a semblance of a ridge....some sort of curvature. Even with a smoothed out mean. I think we have ridging, just not sure how strong.

Yeah that’s what I hope, we get a decent block there. Going to need strong blocking too until Pacific gets better.

Well I explained it a few days ago. But basically the warm pacific air causes the heights to be well above normal. So as a result you get those big reds and whites that look like Massive + anomalies. But, you can tell it may be sort of masking what may be occurring, because there is no anticyclonic curvature. The key to seeing this, are the more zonal looking height lines as shown below. Ryan also said this too. Imo, there is ridging, however I’m not sold on it looking as strong as it shows based on those height anomalies. This actually is common in El Niño’s. So we’ll see as we get closer. I know it may be a smoother out mean beyond 10 days, but I am keeping an eye on it. Just something to watch.

Getting back to the blocking, I’m still thinking the pacific air may be creating a false blocking signal, or at least making it look stronger than it might be. On the EPS, I still don’t see a big stout anticyclone up near the Davis Straits. I’m not saying it’s completely gone, just that I’m not sold on a big block yet. The Pacific, however, is improving quite a bit.

18z nam a little more snowier near MA/NH border.

I kind of hope even if it’s rain here, we flip to a couple of inches of paste. Would be a win.

Yep, agree with you guys. The first half of January looked pretty tough from a ways out. The fact maybe some areas in SNE can score would be a bonus.

Well either way, get the snow where it needs to be first. Lay the foundation down when we get the blocking (hopefully) and Scooter HP nosing in that cold over the natural refrigeration.

Not so much here.

Ironically the airmass for the mixed deal is better than this one to start out.

EPS still has the s/w pretty far west and the low tied to the baroclinic zone near the EC. It does try for that lobe to eject out with cyclogenesis south of LI. But we may toast 850 on down for awhile.

Another shit airmass.

Or perhaps guidance like the op run is just not going to figure out this s/w dance for a couple of days and we’ll have some more run to run changes.