CoastalWx

Yeah agreed. Although, given all the circumstances with this including a tropical...that certainly could change one way or another.

12z GFS looks a little more phased at hr 96 compared to hr 102 of the 6z run. The lead weaker s/w from Zeta zips out quick, but a piece of energy diving in at that time tries to phase with the bowling ball that is moving up from the south. I'd like to see that really blow up the low as it exits stage right. I believe it's the better chance for snow in SNE.

The whole premise supposedly is that winter following the Oct snow myth, is basically mild and less snowy. But some years just had bad luck. 2009 was the Mid Atlantic winter. 2003 was also the PV winter where NYC had more siggy snows. So are we saying October snow results in both suppression, and warm winters? It makes no sense, and when you sample a place like ORH which has had more October snows compared to BOS...there isn't a correlation as far as I am aware of. ORH had lots of October snows in the 60s. I'd say those were decent winters. 2008 had October snow in NJ. We just had trace amounts (maybe a little more in CT?)..so just missed having that as a checkmark for October snow and getting a good winter to follow.

Marion, don't look at it!

Not even a transition, Just right to winter, until you read the November thread.

This reminds of of those srn stream systems with the crazy nrn edge fronto bands.

Powder up the nose with that model.

Maybe put the last few posts from the other thread in here? Diff between this storm and October 2011 is quite significant. 2011 had the airmass in place. In this case cold is draining into it, so a lot of the QPF is liquid for awhile. CNE/NNE different story potentially. At least in 2011, only the euro showed it this far out. This time around all guidance has something. Thread the needle as many have said, but it's not out of the question many see their first flakes and have at least their first accumulation. Otherwise, winter '11-'12 on its way.

They are nuts here too.

That was so yesterday.

The Para looks way too cold. Mid 20s to HVN?

It's a legit airmass for sure. It drops to like -2 to -4C a 925 depending on guidance. That is cold.

Is there a sounding for the op run on that awful webpage?

The interface is terrible. I can't find anything in a timely manner.

Agree, maybe a glancing cool shot early on, but Nov looks to be mild most of the month. Verbatim no pig on the EPS, but a more -PNA pattern will have us more on the mild side later in the first week or so.

Well he is in Omaha.

Gotta watch the s/w that really intensifies it offshore.

It’s within 4-5 days now though. Op runs have more value. Anyways, getting more interesting. I do think I’d want to be more CNE/NNE. But maybe SNE can end it as some snow as gfs and euro show.

Yeah I think the snow is more CNE/NNE.

Was nice. We accept and take.

High of 48 today. We chilly.

You guys are using op runs when you should be using ensembles anyways. EPS was always bullish on rain. I don’t care what op runs say 6-7+ days out like many did yesterday and beyond.

Have this as well.

Euro is pretty far west. That will also effect the outcome of anything late week. Still highly questionable as to what happens.

Would be pretty cool to have a Zoom room from like 9- midnight within a couple days of a big threat as the models roll in That sounds like a good idea! I had company over as well so I missed this, but sounded like it was a good time. Anthony sitting in the cruiser eating takeout?