CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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We'll see how this works over the next day in terms of intensification and wind field expansion. I'm not sure there has ever been a storm this small and moving this slow near our latitude.
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Still a chance it holds. LOL.
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That will be more western LI into western CT and Berks now.
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EPS into ern LI and into CT. LBSW as Ray says.
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I don't really see a big Et transition on any guidance though. It just sort of gets tugged NW and then rapidly weakens. Wind fields still tight.
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The hook west still has a small wind field. It's not the ET transition quite yet. Also, most models are minimal cat 1.
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Lets get another 8"+ for Kevin.
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Yeah into RI from about EWB on 6z euro. So west of that is going to have serious water issues.
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Right. I mean think of Sandy and even Irene. You had 50-70mph winds 200 miles E and NE from center. This might be more 40 miles from center.
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HWRF would be nasty for srn CT.
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Here is the 925 windfield which is a good proxy to core of winds. You can see even at this latitude it remains tight. It also weakens quickly before landfall. If this were other tropical systems that were ETing and accelerating...the wind field to the east would be much more expansive. This is why I think any wind of relevance is near center and just to the east of it. It's a much smaller area than what we would typically see.
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I outlined the trough in red and the ridge in black. Those are the key players and whether a lobe of vorticity can capture and sling Henri to the NW.
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That's the trough I am talking about.
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It's not even close.
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Quickly weakens though. Landfall western LI.
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What?
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150 billion?
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I think we touched on that. Both the ridge to the east and trough to the west are not typical for us to get canes. So you don’t have that massive pressure gradient like in previous storms. So it’s sort of on its own as far as analogs. I think that is why wind field appears much tighter compared to other storms in the past.
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Maybe 150mph?
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However if Henri rapidly strengthened to a cat 2, I’d be a lot more concerned.
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The winds on guidance don’t really show this. Maybe because normally we have a deep trough and low pressure west of the storm and a ridge to the east. This causes the pressure gradient to really tighten up on the east side. Sandy, Irene, Isaias etc all had this. We don’t have that with Henri. Henri looks to be a low end cat 1ish weakening before landfall as it slows over cooler waters.
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If this hooks into LI and NYC most of the area sees very little outside of CT and RI coasts. There is no ET transition and wind field is tight and not expanding. Kind of yawn solution.
