CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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When should I gas up the snow blower? You have me worried about this train.
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With 51 members I’m sure they’ll always be some interesting members.
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As Larry Cosgrove once said, deal with it.
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It’s not even December.
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My guess it averages AN. But given how early it is, you’d want to have a better airmass vs what is modeled. Maybe you get lucky and sneak something in with a serviceable airmass inland as long as we have some blocking. I think people are getting a little antsy and not looking at the calendar too. It’s really early folks.
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Probably AN on average.
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It’s still not a good look. I never it’s a torch either….but the pacific does look crappy. I can’t really get specific two weeks our other than saying it looks meh. If the blocking happens then maybe we can sneak something in. If it does not happen, then we will be milder and probably rather quiet.
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I don’t know what else it might be. It’s not a torch look or a cold look…..just kind of mundane lol.
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The look ahead: Ironically GEFS have the worst looking pacific but better blocking. EPS has a few days mild stretch after the 28th, but then cools off later in first week of December. I’ve yet to really see a clear signal that is either torch, or a pattern that looks hostile, but could offer chances. Hopefully we can sneak in something before it hopefully gets better after the 10th or so .
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It’s gone for most of us. Obviously mtns up north have a chance.
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Ensembles should be used at this range anyways. Actually nice to see differences vs having them look alike. That’s the idea of ensembles so they are working as they should with solutions that are more dispersive compared to the op. Both gfs and euro op are tossed.
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I’d say 98% of us.
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It’s done other than for a few moose.
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Euro was semi tropical with that low. Tossed to the moon.
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Lol I wouldn’t go that far yet.
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Not yet haha. It’s not the worst pattern, but it’s not good. If the blocking showed up you could make chicken salad out of chicken shit……but verbatim we would need more blocking.
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That’s not a good look George. I wouldn’t say a lot of blocking either. Need more ridging into the Davis Straits. It’s gonna come. That’s been modeled. Hopefully it improves after first week.
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Take a moment and watch that gif.
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He kind a looks like Thomas the train.
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Hey there’s another option for later Friday. A Fropa lol.
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Yeah a few were duds. It is funny though that when I was a kid in the 80s, all I heard was we don’t get Winters like we used to. And then I actually got to see the data and realized that just wasn’t some made up fabrication lol. Then the 90s happened.
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Oh so we can expect those winters? Sweet!!
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I think it’s been the overall tenor that people are mentioning. I think it’s been pretty boring, but we’ve been spoiled by some fun falls. The warm weather was nice.
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We should see a Nina look after the first week of December I think. We are sort of in the doldrums with a lack of a true forcing signal. I don’t know where some of the torch talk is coming from, but in order to get that you really need a SE ridge. That’s not really shown on guidance at this time.
