CoastalWx

Is it ever?

I laughed hard at that.

Tblizz was looking at the first low that 6z NAM had, but that kind of is the reason we get porked. 12z NAM got rid of that, and yes the low is SE..but that was a change we needed.

500 is a rather sizeable change.

NAM may be better? I like how it doesn't have that lead low that 6z had.

Snow-storm...compared to '78, Eastern mass wx blogged about it...and fizzled the next day It's a 3SD of the R-N-A It's a jog west on the euro, 50 miles too late. Isn't ironic, don't you think?

Yeah that first s/w kind of induces the low and then that low scoots northeast. That nrn stream digs plenty enough, but lead s/w messes that up. These things happen all the time, it’s just that with this winter.......it’s getting more scrutiny.

Tough to say. They both weren’t exactly cold, although GEFs were more supportive for winter wx. They weren’t vastly different.

I’ll take a few inches then. It’s going to be cold regardless.

Didn’t realize FZFG was a potential this morning.

Stop with the voodoo

NAM was decent for Ray.

Yeah you guys still likely are in it, but with less bitter cold. It was cold in January, but we didn’t have that bitter stuff. Sort of stopped at the mtns. I know some of it was radiational cooling too, but like you said with BTV, they put up big departures too. We’ll see. I was hoping to squeeze in a few more decent events, but doesn’t seem like much on the horizon here. Maybe we can get one or two later this month and in March. GEFS seem to support that, but it seems like they caved a little to the EPS.

Yeah I’m sure the typical ACATT will come in and get all mad, but given the long range pattern, it doesn’t seem that wintry. But we know it can still get cold, and snow. Maybe March has a last hurrah.

Did you see my last sentence?

Long range is mild. Back broken. Doesn’t mean we can’t have snow though.

Yep

The base needs to be a little sharper though.

If I try to compare, still would like that stream of vorticity in front of it to have less space in between.

NAM looked like it would go boom after hr 84. I don’t have a laptop to compare from 18z, but that nrn stream looked seemed potent.

No, lol. If a low were to develop along the front that would naturally turn into a blob of QPF moving in.

It’s sort of anafrontal too. So despite the low offshore they’ll be a ribbon of snow behind the front. Naturally you’d want that to turn into a CCB

I mean it was still weak sauce, but I thought better. Anyways, we need to see some good improvements at 00z and not ticks.

I thought that was a lot better than 12z. The mean.