CoastalWx

6z euro op is real nasty here. 6z AI about the same as 00z. Euro op continues to flop around.

It’s possible the storm might try to move west twice. Once late tonight and tomorrow, and then it moves kind of northeast and then starts moving north then Northwest south of Block Island. But that angle of approach will matter. The other question I have is the rain squalls. There definitely might be some squally rains with this models aren’t really all in agreement in terms of how much but it should be a good drink across most of southern New England.

I think I did mention that a couple days ago in a post. But honestly to me that doesn’t matter in terms of sensible Weather. I’m just trying to figure out where the storm is going and what the winds and rain will be. It may briefly attain tropical characteristics, but once it gets towards 40 north, it’ll definitely become more subtropical.

I think so. Consensus seems like a loop south of BID, maybe west to south of ern LI and then lifting NE from there. Seems like biggest question is angle or approach before loop. That will dictate best winds and potential coastal flooding.

Euro trying for nj again. Lol

Dude trust me. Scotty knows

I’d say it’s more designed for mesoscale stuff like convection. It’s better for that, just meant not good for this stuff. Like showing 3K NAM for tropicals.

This will be nothing like October 2021. That was moving west and then west-southwest with the best gradient overhead. It had like 70kts+ at 950 overhead. Pretty good inversion above 925mb here with 61F SSTs.

Not IBM anymore and that model isn’t that good.

Clown maps

2-3”+

Euro op a good thrashing. And it jumped NE again. That model has had issues.

I think I saw someone post it on stormvista? It was just 6hr QPF that i saw.

AI is taking over. It can’t resolve mesoscale stuff yet, but the euro AI stuff is becoming what most Mets incorporate now and the google deep mind model weathernext3 is showing that it may be the deterministic model of choice.

Dude it’s bad. I’ve seen the scores. There’s no investment. AI version blows too. Anyways it makes life easier since I don’t need to incorporate it. We only foreign models now.