CoastalWx

Phones off at school

That’s funny you posted that. In between bands it definitely seemed more mixed.

In this case you want to be on the north and northwest side of this storm. it’s way different than Sandy which was moving WNW and had a high to the east causing strong SE flow.

Can look at it on Weathernerds. It’s labeled GFM and then the one that has been superior is called weathernext. It’s labeled as GDMWNV3

6z deep mind more clustered south of ACK and MVY then bending west.

SSTs are 61-63 offshore. Already cooling.

Winds overall would be less in that scenario, but perhaps more prolonged.

6z euro op is funny. Retros pretty far south, stalls south of LI then was about to wobble back NE at hr 144.

I don’t think that strong. 925 would need to be 80-90kts and I don’t see that. Mixing barely to 925 as well. Unless this deepens more.

6z euro AI is nasty. Will be interesting to see when we get into hi res territory with the LLJ. Unlike previous storms there will be days of NE fetch. I’m gusting to 25mph and the seas are rough. It’s only Tuesday.

That would be pretty dam epic.

I think he misses some of the things I taught him.

GFS is so bad. It’s what this administration did to the funding.

Deep mind with a bunch of members near ACK and then members south of BID and eastern LI. Euro retros south of the islands and then peels SW towards SE NJ. Ensembles still split. Either way a good storm seems more likely from SNE to Long Island. Don’t expect much coastal impacts towards NYC as the winds are more north. But strong winds and some rain look to happen there too.

There’s an article about how they developed this model. Pretty insane for not using any of the physics we incorporate in current models. I had ChatGPT summarize it lol.