CoastalWx

Upper 40s here. No fake. Been nice to use least amount of energy as possible. Haven’t come close to needing heat.

The only way we see a change to snowier outcomes here is if the tropical forcing changes which may coincide with the shift west of Nino. Otherwise it’s warm all over and around the El Niño regions. Not sure how much it matters if it shifts west as long as the MJO shifts too.

January on the JMA is vomit worthy.

Could be a good drink tomorrow night. Maybe some thunder south coast.

Looks like Mehsaias.

Those winds near PNS are from the second wind max there. Really interesting feature.

I mean 98 for Ian?

Ian 98 lol. Thats laughable.

Some of those had anny’s fail though. Or, may have not captured the real core winds that can be small scale.

PNS might have better mixing, but almost looks like a second wind max there on both radars.

It’s doing as modeled. Degrading quickly now.

Dry air really getting at the center. Right when models had it. Interesting deep convection on the western side of the western eyewall. Wonder if dry air is causing more instability in the mid levels as it impinges in from the west and southwest.

If there is a time for further strengthening it’s now through 18z or so. Definitely good venting helping out.

If it weakens right before landfall and the core erodes like some models have, best winds may be found in the convection modeled on the NW side of the center. Would make it more difficult to maximize best winds in that area accounting for forward motion. You really need good mixing to maximize your best winds at the surface. That’s why it makes all the difference when a storm is intensifying as it makes landfall vs weakening. I’m not minimizing this, just stating what we know with these storms.

Andrew intensified rapidly before landfall in south florida from the east. Stick to making bad sports takes.