CoastalWx

All the whacking to stratospheric wind reverses and weeklies don’t show much NAO ridging. Love it. Gradient flow it is.

Both progs are really cold in Canada. I see Eduggs is in Jersey so I see why he might be looking for something a little different. I don’t mind being near the battle ground with SE Canada BN in temps.

The euro stuff he had. I think some gfs stuff is out there.

On both of those ensembles, the EPS and the AIEPS, I see a ridge off the West Coast and part of a trough dipping into the southwest corner of the US. I don’t really see any red flags? If anything that trough over the southwest will help shoot some impulses northeast because otherwise if we didn’t have that, I think we might have suppression working its way down.

The ensembles show our source region in Southeast Canada cold. We haven’t seen anything like that in years. I’m not looking for a KU pattern just something that often chances and I think this one will.

None of those models had a trough coming in and a massive SE ridge. On the means anyways. I’m not losing sleep over op runs.

After day 13 or so temps cooled off with what looked like potential storm chances down the road. What are you looking for specifically?

Let’s get the Mansfield stake down to 0”

EPS and EPS AIFS looked fine to me at the end after the cutter. I’ve been after the first week train anyways.

I mean, it’s possible we don’t, but everybody gets so mad if I mention that. It’s always like the EPO will bring down the cold. It will squish everything… But that’s how these patterns initially go. It’s literally climo. There’s nothing wrong in saying that.

I always try to include some nice “visions” in my posts.

I miss having access to Ventrice’s MJO stuff. All I have are those wheeler diagrams. Better than nothing I guess.

I know it’s an op run, but 12z Euro AI has the depiction I had in mind for this whole regime shift. Early December shut ‘em down type cutter with frigid temps into TX while Kevin is wearing his plum smuggler running shorts for his morning run. Then it shifts east.

A collective boing can be heard to your south.

I just mean as things transition. Look at the gfs for example. Something like that on 12/3.