CoastalWx

Both NAMs figuring it out now. Not trying to bury it immediately towards WAL.

Hrrr trying to wrap this towards Wallops Island lol. That’s cute.

OKX should have a high wind warning for LI and maybe even srn CT. JMHO.

I don’t think it will get convection near the center type deal. It will have some tropical characteristics, but this is more of a hybrid transitioning to a more classic nor’easter. These happen right into October. It’s unusual though to have something like this so early.

Well you are right, cyclogenesis is complicated by nature. But when the stakes are high, it makes it seem more complicated then it is. If that makes sense.

Well in this case there’s a ton going on. System with tropical characteristics within and upper level low.

This is tough to resolve on guidance.

2-3” there

Sorry, was busy. Yeah comes north a bit more than euro before peeling west which is better gradient from CT to here.

Gfs is good

Nam may be doing Nam things along with the other hi res. It’s also putting a low where there is no low currently. It’s northeast of where models have. Not sure if that means much yet.

I’ll slap some sense into him.

I will say the euros was a long duration coastal battering. Tides get higher until Monday too.

Stalls east of Jersey and then goes NE over SE MA.