mob1

Whatever...

I'm going to Killington on Saturday (through Tuesday) so these subtle shifts east are encouraging as it gives them a tiny bit of wiggle room to trend back NW and still be mostly snow. Worst case scenario, they'll get some upslope snow as the storm departs. 

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Can't get any better than 12z EURO... about 2" QPF with perfectly placed thermals. Decent snow growth column.

It's nice to see some models showing this. I was afraid of an all-out rainstorm for VT (which might still happen). I will likely be at Killington on Sunday but will change it to Whiteface if it trends NW. 

I'll be at Killington this weekend, I hope at least part of the storm is snow there. Any small shift west and it's yet another blinding rainstorm for all of ski fountry

It's impressive that Central Park is still at 32 degrees. Rain is pretty much over here and it's up to 33 degrees, it's pretty cool to watch large lines of ice fall from trees and power lines. 

Everything caked in ice, temperature actually dropped over the last 30 minutes or so and is back down to 31.7 

Models were mostly too cold aloft and too warm at the surface. NYC and LGA are at 31 as well. 

Looking at their webcam, it's absolutely puking snow at Hunter Mountain. I'll be there on Sunday so I hope they can avoid any mixing. 

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

You should be the one bringing up other people's posts. Pot meet kettle.  I could write a novel of your posts that were embarrassingly incorrect. I wrote that because it showed stupid amounts north of 84, like 3 inches for Albany and 1 for Poughkeepsie. It has since corrected to a more reasonable output especially in the Capital District. It is still the warmest of the models and did the storm happen already? We will see what verifies. 

It was definitely too amped but that's a well documented bias of the NAM. At some point yesterday it had sleet into central VT but has since come south a fair bit. On the flip side, some models were too far south. They ultimately met in the middle. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Rain

There are many people in this subforum that get frozen precipitation there. There's a world outside of Brooklyn (and it's beautiful). 

We need to monitor the wet bulb temperature as precipitation commences. If it's low enough for the city to get down to about 28-29, they might stay below freezing for a while as low level cold is hard to scour out and is often not modelled correctly. Right now (as of 1 o'clock) Central Park was 32/7, obviously the dp will rise a lot as clouds thicken but if they're something like 34/24 when the precipitation moves in they'll probably stay below freezing a bit longer. 

Given the borderline temperatures, the difference between freezing rain and sleet will be huge, as sleet will accumulate in pretty much any temperature while freezing rain won't be a big deal in anything over 29 or so. 

Just now, Tatamy said:

18z Euro with Kuchera

Wow. Good for the Catskill ski resorts who have taken an absolute beating over the last 2 weeks. Hope it's right. 

18Z Euro continues to be well south of the NAM, actually has the majority of the storm as snow for far northern posters here (Sussex into Orange County). 

This could be a really ugly storm for northern NJ, especially since cold level cold is often undermodeled. I doubt anyone north of I-80 even touches freezing before meaningful precipitation moves out. 

Fairly large area of a 10 percent hatched tornado contour added to the 2 day outlook. 

2.5" here in SI, definitely more than I thought I would get a few days ago. This puts me over 20 inches for the year. Light snow now. 

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The latest RGEM also ticked east.

How bad? Post it please if you can. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Lol, it was a completely miss in the morning on the RAP. 

OMG! I don't want to get too emotionally invested but the trends today have been awesome. 

The Euro is printing out something insane for Boston. 

3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

5.8 in NoVa about three days before Irene. 

Complete coincidence, there's absolutely no correlation between the 2. Besides, 1.4 is not even noticeable, and they're not even remotely unusual. 

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

12k NAM is flurries showers all day tomorrow

actually has a large area of 1-2 inches form the PRE

Ukie took a rather big step back 

EPS look great as well. Weird model battle. 

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

2010 though

January 2016 as well (for some), but from an entirely different angle. Point is that significant changes can still happen with this lead time, though it obviously doesn't mean it will or that it won't get worse.