Blizzard-on-GFS

3 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Ugly as hell for I-95 and east, I have a feeling this is going to end up being a sleet fest for I-95. That warm nose is gonna muck things up for the coastal crew.

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

From weather.us

 

Aw man that’s perfect for I-95. This is my dream track, just a hair SE of the GFS. 

I am in Long Beach island and it appears instead of the worst of the winds are from the Cape May area on the due east side of the eyewall moving north East, can anyone confirm that with reports??

1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

agreed. not even seeing that in NC obs now.

Yeah  agree, I'm expecting a brief period of 50 mph. Some of the models have shown higher but they are most likely over done. 

Nearly all of the MESO models show an intense band of roughly 60 MPH sustained winds making its way up the barrier islands of NJ. It's hard to believe but almost every model has it. Gusts would be even higher. I know it's crazy but these winds would probably warrant a hurricane warning for these areas; I doubt the warnings will be hoisted but it will be interesting to see how bad it gets. 

36 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

I’ll be on all day tomorrow with reports from OCNJ

Awesome, same. I'm in Ship Bottom, NJ on the bay side. 

Not to be a downer but it's a shame this sub forum is dead. I'll be riding this storm out down LBI but there's not many people here to talk too. It's kind of annoying being a drifter between the Mid-Atlantic, NY, and New England sub-forums to find discussion. The true philly/jersey shore area posts get stuck here. Just my 2 cents, I get it if this post is deleted. Just please don't 5 post me. 

These winds are going to be WICKED for the coast line. I don't care what anyone else says. This is a unique setup. 

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie

Winds are really strong in our area

Gusts are over hurricane  status

Wow! Yeah the Jersey Shore and Long Island are gonna get clocked with winds. I’m surprised people are downplaying it. Nearly all the models show hurricane force gusts for the shore points... Care to share the ukie wind map?

Here comes the eye! 

A tropical storm is likely gonna landfall in the area in the next 48 hours and there’s radio silence in this sub, where is everyone lol? People are sleeping on Fayz

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Let's all go out in the Atlantic and push this west.

I thought you said weast...

Sleet in Bordentown, NJ right now. So when the heavy precipitation moves in from the SW what will the ptype be? If it’s all frozen it looks like a lot of qpf...

10 hours ago, The Iceman said:

 

Mt Holly's early call. Pretty much agree with it except I'd bring the 1 inch line into 95. But with the way things have been trending, their map is probably the right call.

Expected snowfall less than < 1”. Story of our lives for the last tao Years lol. So pathetic. Haven’t even hit an inch yet this year 

3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

GFS and NAM take basically an identical track with nearly identical timing, the difference being the GFS is 4 MB deeper with the low. Huge difference though with temperatures. The NAM(and ICON) at 18z saturday has the 95 area in the mid-20's with the LV in the low 20's-upper teens while the GFS at the same time is near freezing already in the 95 area with the LV in the mid-upper 20's. Is it a result of the GFS being more amped than the NAM/ICON thus bringing more warm air? Or are the NAM?/ICON just handling the CAD better than the GFS? Will be interesting to see what the euro says.

Probably a combination of both. I think we end up somewhere in the middle. 1-3” of slop to rain for I-95. 2-5” northwest of there. 

Ok maybe my snow-starved eyes are deceiving me but the moisture shield looks way further north and west then projected on the models. I'm not understanding how it isn't going to swing through the area with at least a coating to an inch.... Just a really weird storm, the low takes the benchmark track, juicy moisture shield, yet we are mostly projected to get nothing. Guess we will see soon enough. 

11 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

JUICE!

On 12/6/2019 at 10:50 PM, Newman said:

Could not agree more. I'm very active on other NYC centered forums but it's tough with the clear bias. Here many of us experience the same weather and it would be great to talk more but it's not worth my time if there's only like 5 or 6 total members that post here lol.

I totally agree. To be honest I only come to the Philly thread for observations during events, most of the model discussion happens in the NYC thread. I know we've broached this subject before but I'd be fine with the merger of NYC/Philly. As a CNJ/South Jersey resident I feel caught between two areas. Just my two cents though. 

Man this one hurts, Warned for 4-8” in Mercer county,  NJ and we literally got nothing. Hoping to salvage an inch of scraps on the back end as the HRRR alludes to but at this point I’m thinking this one is game, set, set and match. We are really overdue for a nice cold Miller A to bury the whole sub. 

Ugh I ‘m so disappointed,  had a 5-8” consensus snowfall last night on the models dwindle down to I’ll be lucky to see  1-2” in CNJ. It’s been a brutal stretch this last year and a half for my area.

One note is that the 3k NAM is far more generous with QPF especially for southern areas. Notably more banding around CNJ>

Big OOF on the 12k NAM....this is why we can't have nice things down our way lol. 

4 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

When should we start taking the HRRR seriously for the second part of the storm.

Not till the 6z runs.

HRDPS goes off on Eastern PA and CNJ. RGEM and NAM in tight agreement. GFS now starting to pick up on this well. I think it's overdone, but I'm thinking 6-10" is quite possible under the area this band sets up. 

36 minutes ago, RedSky said:

If i had to pick a guidance map at this time this is it

I didn't have a 2" snow last winter until March and then just barely, so this is also winning

 

 

 

I think this solution is off the table table at this point. All of the Mesoscale models and now even the goofus show the CNJ death banding.