Jump to content

Blizzard-on-GFS

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    710

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Blizzard-on-GFS

    The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Just now, dseagull said:

    Struggling to keep anything more than thst up here in Waretown and Forked River, as well.   We will hopefully see a long duration high dbz band pivot near (or over us) overnight, but Im simply not seeing enough observational temp crash to help us catch up to projected totals.   

    For me, snow totals mean far less than the overall coastal impacts... but I like to call things as I see them.  I would consider double digits a win, at this juncture.   Hope we both get to experience some true blizzard conditions, regardless of overall snowfall accumulation.  

    Yeah I WAS skeptical, but after looking over all the 0z model runs. Seems like tight consensus for another 18-22" for us. So when this thing gets cranking and pivoting, things might change quick. Dew point is currently at 31 so as soon as this next band rolls through I think we start cooking. 

    The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

     

    2/23 00z RAP

     

    through 4PM Monday starting 8pm

    qpf_acc-imp.us_ma.png

     

    Snow

     

    sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

    18.5" MAX over my house in Manahawkin, NJ. HRRR prints out another 20" here in south jersey. I only have 2" so far so I hope I cash in when these bands start pivoting. 

    Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    I'm riding out the storm at my parents house in Manahawkin New Jersey and I think we have a real chance at 30 in down there. Going to be a historic storm. I'm hoping this will be the best snow storm I've ever seen in my life as a 34 year old.

    Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk

    • Like 4

    The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    What did we all learn this week?
    If the GFS is consistent run after run with minor waffling, you may want to listen. I doubted it 
    I feel like that goes for really any of the major models. When one model is absolutely locked on to a solution with consistency you have to give it greater consideration.

    Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk

    E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Newman said:

    From my experience, on a more "normal" night of geomagnetic activity the "recharge" usually lasts 2-2.5 hours and then the spike back up is a quick 5-10 minute burst. Tonight isn't normal, we're talking very variable and chaotic conditions with the magnetic field strength. So from experience, I would say maybe around 10:30-11 there *could* be the next substorm. But it all changes in real time. I took this time lapse here earlier this week, which happened right during a substorm. Otherwise, the colors were mostly muted before and after this.

     

     

     

    so cool! thanks for the heads up! Also, that Timelapse I stunning. I've always wanted to see the northern lights my whole life so hopefully tonight is the night!

    E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Newman said:

    Space Weather geek here: that huge burst of aurora was due to an auroral "substorm" that often occurs, we will likely see more through the night. You can track here at the GOES magnetometer site the strength of the parallel component of the Earth's magnetic field. I will explain why that's important below this...

    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer

    Basically, what happens is the Earth's magnetosphere (more specifically it's magnetotail) gets stretched and then subsequently rubber bands back and releases the built up energy. When it rubber bands back, that produces the bursts of Aurora. They usually occur every 2-3 hours. On that website, you can time the substorms by looking at the large down spikes, that indicates the aurora is "charging up". Then when it spikes back up, that means it releases the energy in a beautiful aurora display. I would recommend changing the tab to 6 hours to get a close up view of what the magnetometer is measuring. All of this to say... You might have to wait another 2 hours or so for the bright views to come back! They come in waves and that's just the nature of these things. But it's cool, you can actually predict Aurora substorms and bright views.

    Thanks for the awesome explanation! Based on this chart, can you give a rough prediction for the next time window we might see the lights again in our area? I missed the first round!

    2/13 rain to snow event

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

    One thing I’ve learned from this is if temperatures are iffy, always use the snow depth snow maps, or look at soundings. Kuchera and 10-1 maps were completely off, even the 12z Kuchera this morning were printing out over 8 inches of snow for central New Jersey when most places in that area ended up with 1-2” at best. I remember last night the RGEM snow depth had about 1 to 3 inches for the area so it was pretty dang close and it was also pretty good for north and west areas where it had 6 to 8 inches modeled.

    check out the massive differences below. 10” for CNJ on 10-1 vs 2” on snow depth. That should always be a tell tale sign. 

    IMG_3282.png

    IMG_3281.png

    2/13 rain to snow event

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    One thing I’ve learned from this is if temperatures are iffy, always use the snow depth snow maps, or look at soundings. Kuchera and 10-1 maps were completely off, even the 12z Kuchera this morning were printing out over 8 inches of snow for central New Jersey when most places in that area ended up with 1-2” at best. I remember last night the RGEM snow depth had about 1 to 3 inches for the area so it was pretty dang close and it was also pretty good for north and west areas where it had 6 to 8 inches modeled.

    • Like 1

    2/13 rain to snow event

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    2 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

    It is actually comical how far off yesterday’s 12z Euro was. Many of the areas in the 2-4” zone got a foot. And most of south Jersey away from Philly got shut out or close to it.

    IMG_0703.png

    Epic Bust here in CNJ :( happy for the NW crew though. We got less than 2" and it has all been completely melted by mid-afternoon here in Bordentown, NJ. Kind of amazing how every model this morning had 4-8" for the area. Probably got around 1.5" if that....

    • Weenie 1

    February 2024

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

    It did come north at 18z FWIW. 

    Yes, slightly but the whole idea that this is going to be nothing but rain for odd 95 is definitely a doomer attitude. This is legitimate threat for I 95.

    • Like 3
    • Weenie 1

    January 19, 2024 Powder Snow Event

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Ripping snow down in Manahawkin, radar looks great down here, we only saw a little over an inch with the earlier bands. This is our chance here for accumulations. SE Jersey coast looks to be in good shape. Waiting/hoping that this band pivots into an inverted trough as the low pulls away. Gonna be real interesting to see if that feature ends up setting up or not. 

    • Like 4
×
×
  • Create New...