DomNH

Euro blows. Bunch of sleet to a crusty inch before it dries out.

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Don’t! Sleet and slot will make for a let down. Stay the course. 1-3” of slop/cement. 

It's not an isothermal paste bomb sounding though during the overnight hours once the H7 warmth washes out. It's pretty damn cold right about down to the surface.

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is total QPF by dawn...lets assume no accumulation during the day given inconsistent rates and solar irradiance...around a foot of cement minus the .3 wasted. Maybe even assume less than 10:1...say 10" or so.

Verbatim it's a textbook snow sounding from like 03z to 09z then it starts to rapidly dry out up top. Can't rule out 1''+/hr poundage during that window though. Razor thin.

Depth change still really meh til you hit CON outside of elevated Monads/Berks/N ORH. Tough one...

Dries out the DGZ really quickly Thursday morning like the NAM, but that's a pounding from like 03z to 12z. 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM dries out the DGZ quickly after 12z. I think you really need to slam before that time for siggy amounts south of MHT. Unless this keeps going south.

Was going to literally post the same thing. NAM depth change is 1-4'' from about Rt. 2 to MHT through 12z Thursday and I think that's probably what I'd go with at this point. Annoying slop but def close to something more interesting. 

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Cloud tops still look cold enough even when the nam pulls a little dry air into s nh at h7. Just need to get the forcing to overcome your 2m temps. I should be ok up here. 

You're def in a "great" spot. I have a flight out of MHT later Thursday afternoon so I'm rooting for the slot. 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it can accumulate during the day ok with these soundings....but the key is keeping H6-7 saturated and getting decent rates. If it goes slotty with light rates, then it won't matter. But if you're going moderate to heavy snow at noontime with 850 temps in the -9C range and 925s in the -4C range, it's pretty hard to not accumulate. But the key is not slotting aloft....we want to keep that H7 WF to the south of us. 

Those 0.15 to 0.2" QPF in 3 hours won't cut it...need over 0.25" every 3 hours.

Yeah I agree. I haven't looked at the NAM soundings yet but the 06z GFS soundings here were kind of sh*t in that regard. DGZ was bone dry throughout then H7-H8 dried out pretty quickly after 12z. 

12z NAM kinda reminds me of the 06z Euro for the Rt. 2 north region. Pellets til 06z or so Thursday morning, then some slushy snow, then it gets slotty later Thursday morning into the afternoon and that'll kill any accums. Going to need to lose the sleet if we want a better chance of advisory snows overnight in this area because anything after 12-14z or so Thursday is pointless. 

06z Euro is still scalpy through 06z to the NH border but goes to town after that. Could see advisory snows from that 06z - 12z or so window before the dynamics kind of crap out and it flips to ra/sn non-accumulating stuff. 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wasn't taking the map at face value when I posted about it so much as reflecting on the fact that it treneded southward again.

Clearly I am not getting 2' of snow.

Yes I know lol I just feel like our ceiling is going to be maybe 2-4’’ of slush tomorrow night. 

Euro looks like RA/IP to MHT Wednesday night into Thursday before flipping to some slop/non-accumulating crap during the day on Thursday. Idk…not that impressed for the lowlands south of like CON.

Problem with those GFS clown maps in this area is that most of what falls after 12z Thursday, if it’s even snow, probably isn’t accumulating much, especially on pavement. Heaviest rates are Wednesday night into Thursday which could bring a few sloppy inches but anything after that I’m skeptical. The snow depth maps aren’t all that impressive outside of the elevated areas. 

Man looking at GFS soundings and that is an absolute nuke for the interior north of Route 2 verbatim. H7 warm tongue is definitely something to watch though. Getting the feeling it's either going to be a condo collapser or a scalping, both of which completely suck at this point.

13 minutes ago, 512high said:

Sorry Dom for the delay, my shop on Simon st(exit 5 area) one spot at 530pm I had 15.5" or so, home(off south main st) had 16"+/_

That’s what I figured. I’m downtown and eyeballed the same. Nice to see a NEMA/SNH jack. 

1/2 SM snow in this OES band. 

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dom di Dom Dom. Long time no see. Excellent storm for you

Hey Steve! Hope all is well. Snowshoeing was fantastic today. Great storm.

@512high how much do you have? I don't have a spot to measure but eyeballing like 12-14'' or so settled. 

Still +SN. We have to be around or over a foot at this point. 

Pushing 1/8 sm vis now. 

Eyeballed ~10'' OTG while snowshoeing an hour or two ago. Will probably end up somewhere near a foot when all is said and done. Hydrologic fun on Wednesday.

I like 6-10'' here. Think the 10''+ amounts will largely be confined to the hills. 

Looks like the 12z trend so far is a big cut N of the Pike, especially N of the MA/NH border and a later start. We salvage. 

We GFS. 

908 outages in NH. Can't even mix down strong enough winds to topple over a few dead maples.