DomNH

Trying to sneak in an early tee time Saturday am. GFS, NAM, UK say sure. Euro, CMC, RGEM say no. I feel like I know where this is going…this spring needs to die. 

Pounding in this last band. 

Looks like about an inch or so on the grass. Roads covered. Just dismal.

Light glaze on the trees. FZDZ 

Some pingers mixing in now. Thrilling.

43 kts at the pit that is ASH earlier today. Not bad for this area. 

Best of the day here just now. Probably >40 mph but nowhere near HWW criteria. 

Whole lotta meh on the wind here as per usual.

8 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Standard CAA wind at the moment. Nothing like the ORH and FIT obs.

Starting to pick up in the last 15 minutes or so. 

Peeling paint. 

Pouring zr now. Refreeze is going to be a disaster.

3k NAM gone wild with the thump too. 4-8'' to snizzle to a few hours of 34F rain is a decent net-gainer for most. 

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ll be surprised if the CAD doesn’t hold stronger than that. 

Yeah, I'm guessing the reality on Sunday is the CF makes it near ASH before it retreats but probably not further than that. 

Euro is rain to MHT by midday Sunday other than some ice in the favored CAD spots. Thump looks better for the Pike region than the GFS though. 

Also think the ptype algorithm is garbage and that’s mostly sleet not zr, but I don’t have ICON soundings. Nor would I want them lol. 

You know things are bad when we’re arguing over the ICON. 

NAM is a cutter lol thump is flaccid. More like 2-4'' region wide. 

The PV has ticked west on every run since 00z last night. If that trend doesn’t reverse at 00z tonight I don’t think this is going to be all that interesting outside the front end.  Primary hanging on into upstate NY is a killer.

I don't hate the overall advisory thump to slotted crap trend. 

Thump is decent NOP on the GFS but post-thump is mostly showery slotted garbage. Primary into Ontario.

NAM scalps then shuts off quickly after 15z in SNE before a little more afternoon rain outside the favored spots. 

I'll be on the road from the South Shore back to ASH Sunday afternoon so kind of hoping for a more GFS-like solution. I just don't see the appeal of advisory snow followed by the kitchen sink. 

Strong primary to PBG was my concern after looking at the ensembles from overnight. 

GFS doing the NAM where it dries out to flaccid rain/mix after 12z. 

Yeah, ICON finally brings the primary into NY.