Still a significant number of GEFS and EPS members that bring a 980 mb low to Plattsburgh instead of completing the transfer. 12z going to be very interesting.
Ah, I thought 0.5'' was when the power issues started. Agree that 3/8'' is probably doable in the favored spots if things stay the same as they are now. I just don't see a widespread ice storm warning kinda deal.
I think even 0.5'' - 1'' of QPF as ice in a fast moving, moderate to heavy rain type of system isn't going to do it for Phil. A nice wintry appeal and saggy trees but short of .
I do wonder how efficiently ice would accrete on snow-covered branches and power lines. I can’t recall significant QPF as ZR after a few inches of snow.
I see advisory snow + advisory ice as the absolute worst case scenario here. Either give me a foot or 1.5’’ of QPF all ZR. Or rain.
12z GEFS farther NW and warmer for the weekend. Let’s trend this to rains to Maine. A crusty 1-2’’ and toucans and not a crippling, holiday weekend ruining icer.
GFS and ECMWF soundings look good overnight Saturday through early Sunday. Deep saturation through the DGZ. NAM looks like a lot of sand with some periods of decent growth mixed in. Hopefully the NAM is out to lunch.