Voyager

Looks like the NAM suite wants to shift everything south and east. The Pocono jackpot appears now to be a Lehigh Valley jackpot.

Mount Holly is rather busllish wrt to the Poconos. One county and about 5 miles east of me and watches are hoisted. Lets see what CTP does...

I would have thought that the qpf outputs on most of the models being around 2 inches (I did end at 1.78 inches) plus the snow melt (see my image from yesterday) and I would have thought the Southeastern counties would have had a watch.

Why does the polar vortex always have to drop into the Eastern US? You never hear of it dropping into the west. If airfare to Phoenix wasn't $700, I'd be heading there this weekend...

Two in my area. Country Club Road, and Lizard Creek Road (PA895) are from creek flooding. Others, I'm not sure about. PA61 up by Sunbury is a full closure, so I suppose that one is creek flooding as well.

There are a handfull of road closures in and around the area due to flooding. Williamsport and I talked about this yesterday and here we are. No watch or advisories were issued, not even a mention other than in the AFD about not needing to issue any flood statements.

Don't know about the Harrisburg area, by it looks like I'll finish up at around 1.80" in my backyard (1.78" currently) with perhaps a small bit to go per radar. My temp sensor may be shot, but my rain gauge is still reading correctly per the USGS gauge a half mile from the house...

I stand corrected. I guess the temperature sensor is flaking out in my station. I looked at the old mercury thermometer on my back porch and it's only 50 here. I have an 8 year old Accu-Rite station, but I guess it's near the end of it's life.

Yes it is. Guidance only took me to the low 50's this morning. The fog, as you can imagine, is pretty bad up here.

I've only been in Tamaqua since 2001, so I don't know about times prior. Since my arrival, -10 and 101 were my records. Rainfall, of course came this year. The snowpack is taking a hit now with the heavy rain and a temp that is sitting at 59 degrees (we briefly hit 60 a little while ago) so I don't know how much will be left when all is said and done. today.

We are holding our piddly snowpack quite well. We got an inch and a half of rain Saturday night/Sunday morning on 2.5" of snow. Then it froze into a rock. I don't think we'll be warm enough, long enough to lose all of it. As for my sig, I have a backyard weather station, so those numbers are for Tamaqua proper.

Temp spike here. I sat down at the desktop about 15 minutes ago and it was 50 degrees. Now it's up to 56 degrees. It's too bad we can't sneak out one full day of this mild air (even with the rain) before the temps crash post FROPA...

We've been having this discussion over in the Central PA forum, where we don't even have watches issued. Most of the guidance is showing at least an inch and a half of rain and the NAMs are showing 2+ inches up my way along with temps pushing 50 degrees prior to FROPA. I saved and posted a map of modeled water equivalent snow melt earlier and it does show at least about another inch (if what it's showing is correct) melting off in addition to the rainfall. Like you said, this will be happening with saturated ground that is frozen, so most of the rain and snow melt will run-off. I would think that smaller streams and creeks would be vulnerable to flooding in this situation.

Good question. Down here I might push 50 degrees at some point before FROPA, and according to the NWS, there is at least .50 to 1.00 inch water equivalent in the snow pack down my way. If this map is correct, 2.00" + the snow melt should give us what would be 2.50" to 3.00" of rain...on frozen ground. You'd think that down this way, at least, that would push smaller streams up toward bankfull.

Even up to 30 here at the present time.

I got "only" 20" out of that one. I-78 to I-81 and points SOUTHWEST got totally slammed. The three lane section of I-81 in Martinsburg, WV was reduced to one lane in spots because the plows couldn't push the snow any further. Check out my video from Monday morning going down to Weyer's Cave, VA. It starts in Hazleton where they had 12-15" and goes through the section of West Virginia that got over 40".

That has been the big take away for me regarding the pattern over the past 10-20 years. It sure does seem like I-95 and points east really cash in when we have a KU event. When I was a kid and teenager back in the 70's and 80's, it seemed like more of the big snowstorms were always north and west of I-95. Philly often rained while the Lehigh Valley (where I grew up) and northwest cashed in. The other thing is the frequency of such storms. How many foot+ snowstorms has the DC to NYC corridor gotten in the past, say 15 years, as opposed to times prior?

Heat wave here. It's +6f as opposed to the +2f I had yesterday morning...

I almost lost my car in Easton, PA during that flooding event. My dad and I went down and parked at the park on Larry Holmes Drive near where the Lehigh flows into the Delaware. An ice jam formed down stream and the river rose incredibly fast. I ran back to my car and got it out just in time as the waters engulfed and inundated the lot in mere minutes. Never seen anything like it in my life.

+2f this morniing here in Tamaqua. Who made it below zero overnight?

Was out with dog and the whole neighborhood sounds like a bowl of Rice Krispies. All the ice is snap, crackel, and popping...lol

What sun? We have had flurries and squalls ever since the front went through. It's damn cold already too...

Winds picked up about 45 minutes ago and we had a quick little snow squall to go along with it. It was too warm to stick at that point, but you could literally feel the cold pouring into the area. Got all the shoveling and plowing done. Now to watch it all freeze solid.

I'm up to 1.92" for the storm, but the USGS automated gauge a half mile or so from the house is showing 1.42". Someone (me or them) is off as the difference shouldn't be that large in such a short distance.

Morning obs from Tamaqua: It's still raining and the temp is up to 40 degrees here. I almost wish we'd have made it into the 50's. Why? Because so far, my 2.5" of snow from last night has melted and compacted down to one inch of slush and slop. If it were warmer, I may not have to go out and attempt to remove this stuff, which must be done early and soon, before it freezes into a rock. So far, I have gotten 1.49" of precipitation (snow, sleet, and rain) from the system. I do wish it would have been cold enough to stay powder instead of what is curretnly out there. It would have been a great event if it had...