Syrmax
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Everything posted by Syrmax
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SNE south of I-90 is a big ? mark. South coast of CT/RI/MA (I-95 corridor to Taunton) will probably roast and flood. Interior...could be a mess or a decent hit.
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You've got to be near 50"...hell i am. KSYR is within a couple inches of me at 47.2" thusfar this season.
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Good summary Don. Looking forward to an ne.wx snowfall contest on this one. I think there will be enough stations in play...
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I think the Ukie has pretty much finished caving in to the Euro. Maybe that's the "big" news?
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Maybe its just me but i'm not seeing a significant difference between the 12z model runs and also in comparison to the small trends/perturbations that exist from each model's run to run. Certainly not from a sensible weather standpoint.
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Looks more like a rinse...;)
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That's always a risk with synoptic east coast systems. CNY is often on the western fringe of the sweet spot. WNY/NNY even moreso.
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Kuchera map with Euro should look special.
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They especially, and the media in general, like the major cities to get walloped...ups the hysteria for ratings... Big snowfalls in flyover country...meh.
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We’re not home yet...but yeah...
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Great Jet structure. Right entrance region over NY will provide good vertical air ascent.
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Surprised no weather warnings in Ohio, PA, Indiana etc for this system yet. Perhaps not wanting to confuse people with snow that falls later today and tonight.
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Agree. I don’t see Buffalo getting advisory level snows by the time it’s over. This is a scenario where most of the KBUF area could use a jog NW as compared to model averages but really just as a modelology insurance policy, of sorts.
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I have to rack out. Storm uncancel.
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Here was 12 z at h850 for comparison
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00z Euro interesting. Low passes SE of Cape Cod but eastern LI, eastern Mass and RI are all above 0C at h850...there must be some center redevelopment going on between frames. Or a vicious Coastal Front...all too familiar.
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Probably...I think we are in great shape. 96 hr Euro does not look like it came west. Low passing just south of ACK. Probably good news for SNE. We’ll see what the qpf queen maps show.
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00Z Euro 996mb over eastern TN at 72 vs 998 mb over RIC on 12z.
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That 12z Euro run Tuesday with all the green colors up here got everyone overamped. Reality is probably going to be 1/2 of those values. Which is still a good storm.
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I need to sleep but I see the Euro is out to 24. Hopefully it’s not slow.
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I just looked at that...LOL. I don’t think I’ve ever seen NAVY model on the WEST side of forecast model spread. It usually has storms heading out to Bermuda and up to the Flemish Cap.
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Eastern Mass...depending the model you look at, could be front end snow to 50 and raining, or an ice storm, or 20” of snow. Enough to drive anyone mad.
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GFS and esp FV3 really hate SNE...ice Storm! Not sure how credible that is but it’s at least on the table. That would not be good.
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For comparison. Here is GFS at 10:1...so if sh*tty snow growth strikes, this would be probably close to reality...still a good storm.
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If the so called outlier has that for CNY I think we’re in great shape for 12-18”
