Syrmax

This LES event looks like it will be disgustingly close to my location but be largely a miss to the north. Fulton gets a foot while we get flurries, if that. Sigh. Ty may been in good shape for this!

Rizzuto was the best. I was there for that.

Just ugh. But well deserved. Our national nightmare is over. #LGM.

Per 3K NAM soundings...KSYR gets about 20 hours above freezing but max is 37-38F for about 6 hours or so with rain. Then a 4-6 hour window for postfrontal snow (~3"). Not ideal but won't be a large scale meltdown especially with a higher density snow depth in place. Probably cut snow depth by a 1/4 - 1/3rd at worst. Then we glacier.

We were all moaning and groaning about the modeled pattern 10 days ago, and how arid it looked...until this past weekend's storm showed up on modelling. Looks like a parade of clipper type systems as it stands now over next 10 days. Which wouldn't be bad.

A bit OT but if you can see it, the Super Bloody Tom Brady Wolf Moon eclipse has started. Go outside and Despair of the Lamentations to come...;) visible here thru low lake effect clouds....

13.4” at the actual KROC airport.

Cool sounding. Only issue is, look where the SGZ is...practically on the deck. Flakes produced in a narrow, low SGZ tend to be crappy needles and such, not decent dendrites. I think KBUF and KBGM notes this in AFDs earlier.

I did take a few looks at model soundings prior to event but I didn’t pick out that snow growth would be so godawful. I had under 10:1 with zero mix. This has bagged us before in synoptic storms and is usually a good reason to just stick with 10:1. Back in January 2005 we had a similar event (was a coastal low though) but similar temps during storm. Ended up around 12” but flake size was similarly small.

Ratio would be 15:1. Seems pretty high for this storm but whatevs. I’m not there.

Just measured another 1.5” as of 10 am (7a - 10a). Seems low given the rates we’ve had but it’s windy also. Storm total up to 10.3”. Crawling our way up. Not sure lake effect will amount to much here but we’ll see.

I knew I should've snowblowed when I got up. Only my Siberian Husky wants to he outside.

Best snowfall of storm coming down right now. Maybe we crawl to 10" by the time it wraps up in a couple hours!

KBGM AFD noted low ratios but ascribed them to sleet mixing in...all the up to UCA. Wow. They didnt mention low ratios where it remained all snow though. This is why I'd hate to put out big snowfall numbers for any forecast, were I a met. Cuz rice snow is a thing.

Anyone notice Weather Underground has ruined Intellicast winter radar? Sad.

Yeah it was evident last night. Once the best forcing seemed to head NE towards ENY and with the snow hole in west central NY, the writing was on the wall. There was no CSI banding anywhere in sight and frankly not sure why it should have been expected with a weak slp and basically an overrunning WAA situation.

Similar #s here. Officially calling this a bust. Locally anyway. Ratios! Kuchera #epicfail

Just about Final storm numbers as of 7 am... 8.8"...1.01" Liquid. Ratio of 8.7:1 Maybe we to 10" but at 6 degrees...gonna be a struggle. 6pm 2.0" / 0.17" L / 11.8:1 Midnight 3.0" / 0.43" / L 7.0:1 7 am 3.8" / 0.41" L / 9.3:1 Total 8.8" / 1.01"L / 8.7:1

That’s pretty cool. I was there in the northern suburbs of Chicago over Thanksgiving for my sons graduation from Navy boot camp in Waukegan. Poor guys there now dealing with snow also.

KALB SN+ 8F, vis 0.2 miles KGFL SN+ 4F, vis 0.2 miles There goes the CNY major snowstorm. They deserve it though, that area has been screwed over a lot in the past decade plus. We at least have LES to make up the difference.

Well, the good thing is that I don’t feel obligated to stay up and watch a good meso band dump, cuz there won’t be any here, just more rice snow for another 8:hours then we wrap up and really freeze! A bit disappointing given the time spent tracking this. Another lesson learned.

There is a huge dryslot of sorts, not a real dryslot associated with slp, west of I-81 out towards western NY east of the Buffalo region. My best guess is it is downsloping related, off the Allegany Mt region in NW PA. This seems to be broad enough to be impinging all the way to I-81. This will have a big impact on snowfall for the Genesee region to finger lakes. its always something with these storms. You can get f*cked six different ways to Sunday (literally in this case) and never see half of them coming. Unbelievable. KROC will still do ok with lake enhancement with NE and then N winds but my location looks to be condemned to the lower end of predicted ranges (1 in 10 probability snowfall around 10”). Sigh.

KBGM notes that models haven’t yet picked up on widespread snowpack so they are expecting a more frozen outcome but I do think we flip to rain for at least part of the next system. Probably not a lot, but enough to make snowshoeing and x-country skiing conditions crappy.

Snowfall rate has increased but flake size still unimpressive. Per KBGM radar best reflectivity is being shunted east of I-81. Albany should be in a good spot for once. Tempeerature stable at 17F.

Just did midnight measurement...5.0”, 0.60” liquid equivalent, storm total. 11am to 6pm: 2.0” and 0.17” melted. 11.8:1 ratio 6pm to Midnight: 3.0 and 0.43” melted. 6.9:1 ratio Storm total: 5.0”, 0.60” melted. 8.3:1 ratio. Ratio seems low but I did a second snowfall measurement in front of house in driveway, pretty open and not drifted and also had 5.0”. So I am reasonably confident of the snowfall measurement. Ratio seems low but pretty sure I didn’t screw it up.