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Posts posted by SJonesWX

  1. 3 hours ago, George001 said:

    The setup for mid month is loaded, historically strong North Atlantic blocking, a western ridge centered over Montana (ideal for east coast cyclogenesis), and excess water vapor available for storms to tap due to the volcanic activity last year and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean. What was really interesting was the end of the Euro run, it looked like it was about to phase a piece of the vortex over southern Canada into the storm (the northern and southern branches are already starting to phase over the Midwest). This run it likely would have been a bit late with the 3rd piece, but if that dives in a little earlier the ceiling drastically increases. Either way we’re getting a Miller B nor’easter/blizzard in my opinion, but the question is are we getting a double phaser or triple phaser. Triple phasers are very rare, so the odds are low, but due to the magnitude of the blocking the odds are higher than they usually are. The farther NE you are, the better the chance is of that 3rd piece phasing in. Even without it, due to the magnitude of the block the low will be in no hurry to leave, and with all the water vapor in the atmosphere combined with the arctic Canadian air clashing with the mild Atlantic Ocean we could easily see 3+ inches of QPF with a double phaser. If we get a triple phaser, all bets are off and we could be talking 5+ inches of QPF. 

    settle down Beavis

    • Haha 3
  2. 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    I don't think many within the weather circle exhibit enough athletic prowess for that.

    are you calling me fat? i feel like you are calling me fat. for the record, I will have you know that i am, in fact, F.A.T.

  3. 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    You can see why some people jump off the tobin when the OP models don't show snowstorms....all you have to do is look at the inverse reactions when there's a huge storm at 300 hours. :lol:

    so they jump back up on to the bridge?

    • Haha 1
  4. 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:



    i moved into a new house that day. what a disaster. 1 year old furniture being moved in the back of a pick up truck in a raging snowstorm. snow on peoples feet virtually destroying brand new carpets. lost power that night, so first night in new house sleeping on the floor of the living room next to the fireplace, our only source of heat. woke up to pine tree branches on both vehicles. What a great day that was!

  5. 9 hours ago, jbenedet said:

    No. That’s not your high.

    Your high is at midnight. 

    Hartford at 60 as of 9:50 p.m.

    my temp at midnite was a balmy 43. my high temp yesterday was 52 at noon time.

    the only thing high around here is you

    • Thanks 1
    • Haha 1
  6. 11 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

    My only point was…and Will backed it up,  was that what QgOmega was talking about was a low probability.  

    Sure Jerry, it could happen, but the chances are low currently, and that was my point, that he is a Troll…he always down plays and trolls everything.  

    And If you want to input that possibility, there is a way to do it without making everybody else look like they’re wish-casting, which is what he was insinuating.  

    QQ Omega is the first user i have ever ignored, here or elsewhere. it is easy to do-hover over his username, and you will see the "Ignore" option on the bottom right.

    • Thanks 1
  7. 10 minutes ago, George001 said:

    With blocking that severe the ceiling for this December is very high, as in 20+ inches of snow for the month in most of SNE. That is a lot, but it only takes one storm to reach those amounts with this severe North Atlantic blocking pattern. Instead of getting 12 hour storms with a positive NAO in this pattern due to the blocked flow the low isn’t going anywhere, so we would get 24 hour storms instead, possibly longer. With the warm ssts offshore I’m thinking a March 2018 redux, where the NW areas get clobbered with the first storm or 2. Then mid to late month when the cold air is more established (there are signs of a polar vortex displacement event on the models, despite no SSW), the clash between the northern airmass and the mild early season Atlantic Ocean SSTs leads to any area of low pressure forced to redevelop offshore due to the blocking to undergo rapid cyclogenesis as it comes up the coast, deepening into the 960s. On top of this, we have the increased water vapor in the atmosphere due to the volcanic activity last year, this increase in water vapor will lead to truly obscene QPF totals. 


    I won’t settle for anything less than 24-36” with 48 straight hours of blizzard conditions 

    • Haha 3
  8. 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

    Tell me more!!!


    3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

    Wow what a beautiful day.

    Another +10 in the books for Mowvember.

    Yeah we got up to 54 in my full sun poorly sited thermo that is right next to the driveway. The wind made it feel super nice. Really wish I was wearing shorts as I was spreading fertilizer with my lawn tractor and fully erect nipples.


    seriously  Dear Father Pope, please give it a rest

  9. at my various locales in NH, 11 of the past 16 Novembers have gotten accumulating snow. the average is a little more than 1". so for those of you NOT in NNE, it is unusual for you to see accumulating snow in November. therefore, November is not a winter month.

    • Like 1
  10. 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    March 25th has colder normals than November 17th at ORH....do you consider March 25th winter?

    March 25th also averages a lot more snow than Nov 17th in addition to being colder.

    facts? we ain't got time for facts.

    35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

    Who cares.. Morch is spring, has a spring look and feel with light, sun etc. To me , I like winter and snow in Nov

    i may be laughing at the premise of your posts that say November is a winter month-because it really isn't. plus like Will said above, March can produce way more snow. HOWEVER, i actually agree with this post of yours. November starts to get cold, starts to get that holiday vibe, which yes, eventually leads to snow. And March is the opposite. getting warmer, signs of spring, etc

    • Like 1
  11. 27 minutes ago, George001 said:

    Hell yeah, this threat won’t pan out (like many here said, I jumped the gun creating this thread) but the overnight guidance trended towards a Miller B for the next threat. The EPS is showing early and aggressive secondary redevelopment, with a low strong enough to potentially create its own cold air. 

    maybe wait to start a thread until it is a couple days out? 

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