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Sey-Mour Snow

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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow

  1. Sey-Mour Snow
    Long range HRRR starting to look like other guidance now at 00z, it’s been the most paltry.
  2. Sey-Mour Snow
    Ya tossing reggie and 6z euro..
  3. Sey-Mour Snow
    RRFS back to earth looks like Euro now, I think the Nam's have the right idea as they are a blend of EURO and GFS
  4. Sey-Mour Snow
    Would be funny if we all got a coating to an inch or less and it was all done before sunrise so no one saw a flake..
  5. Sey-Mour Snow
    Trending drier on the meh guidance especially as you go NE / dry air then fights in from the NW Sunday morning with the front
  6. Sey-Mour Snow
    NAMs and HRRR show Litchfield county getting some bonus snow tomorrow night too.. Watch them jack
  7. Sey-Mour Snow
    Verbatim meh for us like 6z, but the goods trended beefier just a hair to our south
  8. Sey-Mour Snow
    The best banding is further north than 6z gets to Long Island this run, however the northern edge of precip shield is a touch south overall
  9. Sey-Mour Snow
    No, but it wasn't great was like 1-2 maybe 3" of fluff for us
  10. Sey-Mour Snow
    Through 36 looks like NAM might bump north a tad with better trough orientation, but I don't expect much difference from 6z
  11. Sey-Mour Snow
    Looks better to me at 30 with trajectory of energy diving down and angle of trough
  12. Sey-Mour Snow
    Over (me) under (you) for 2" for my back yard ... Loser doesn't post til next year..
  13. Sey-Mour Snow
    Going with a blend, if NAM/GFS starts to line up with the Euro/Rgem/RRFS camp then we can bump up an inch. Not much but it’s all we got.
  14. Sey-Mour Snow
    I usually shovel no matter what unless it’s 12”+ , hopefully can save a few strategic piles for Christmas
  15. Sey-Mour Snow
    Sorry you are hurting so much I’ll post pics for you when you are wrong
  16. Sey-Mour Snow
    Taking a closer look at things.. Beefier Guidance - RGEM - RRFS - EURO6z - These models would bring 1-2" to pike 2-4" south of 84 up to 6" south shore Meh Guidance - Nam/GFS/HRRR .. These models would bring a coating up to rt 2 - 1-2" south of 84 - up to 3" south coast.. Here's the RRFS - it's the beefiest, but more in line with RGEM and 6z EURO Here GFS continues to be the driest
  17. Sey-Mour Snow
    Starting a thread for Sunday so we can talk about the White Christmas here ..
  18. Sey-Mour Snow
    We take RRFS ..
  19. Sey-Mour Snow
    probably warning snow on south coast with that look All other guidance is like .1 to .2" qpf while euro is double that .. With ratios thats the difference between a fluffy 1-3" on most guidance .. While euro is widespread 2-4" up to 6" with the ratios in southern CT.. I'd assume there'd be a few hours of a legit band with that look.. But 6z EURO is tossed until it gets support. I'm all for it .. but I just don't believe it , if 12z amps back up then I'll entertain
  20. Sey-Mour Snow
    It's ridiculous, best euro run in several cycles , we just got euro 6zd - it's equivalent to the nam extra 33% qpf theory
  21. Sey-Mour Snow
    Who's shocked the 6z euro is great again.. not me .. think we can just toss all 6z and 18z euro guidance.. it's a joke
  22. Sey-Mour Snow
    I’d say 10-25% chance someone pulls a 6.. most likely right now in central jersey, Trenton NJ to right over our favorite police officers backyard looks like the sweet spot
  23. Sey-Mour Snow
    Better tilt to trough precip a bit further north , probably a widespread 1-2” north and 2-4” south coast this run .. edit the meat is still just a bit too far south for us.. could be 4”+ widespread in that band.. but a relatively believable Nam run
  24. Sey-Mour Snow
    Much better at 54 very healthy precious shield and further north
  25. Sey-Mour Snow
    Yes same idea, torch and pre up nearby with lingering cold over New England and Canada
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