wxsniss

Yeah there's a ridiculous spread in guidance for Tuesday... Just compare RGEM vs. NAM for 18z Tues

Yep tick east, cooler but less prolific with qpf --- really key point is it did not make a last minute jump towards RGEM/old-GFS:

Box AFD: Heavy snow... As mentioned above very cold/dry airmass over the region this evening will set the stage for an impressive front end thump of heavy snow Monday afternoon and evening. Very strong easterly jet at 850 mb of 5 standard deviations will provide an Atlantic fire hose of moisture to overrun the cold/dry airmass currently over the region. This strong forcing for ascent will be enhanced by mid level instability Monday afternoon and evening as dry slot approaches. This entrainment of mid level dry air will steepen mid level lapse rates and result in 1-2" hourly snowfall rates Mon afternoon and evening. HREF supports this with high probs of 1-2" hourly rates. Even the HREF hourly mean is 1.5-2.0 inches. That combined with instability aloft, would not be surprised if 3+ inch hourly rates for a time in the strongest snow bands, along with a low risk of TSSN! Nevertheless, travel will be extremely difficult Monday afternoon and evening given these hourly snowfall rates. Given the evaporative cooling potential initially, followed the colder guidance here. Although given low level temps are marginal across Eastern CT/RI/MA, followed the lower SLR from the NBM which are less than 10-1. Although this may be offset early on as snow growth is very favorable 18z-00z. Thus heavy wet snow across this region will increase the risk for snow loading issues/tree damage and power outages.

18z NAM 10:1, through 48 hrs, 18z Tues... best one yet for much of SNE:

Best run yet for just about all of SNE One of the most steady NAM performances I can remember... other guidance has wavered alot more As noted earlier, this is almost dead on with the HREF

NAM has been incredibly steady since Saturday crushing for much of SNE at hr 30, including eastern MA

18z NAM holding strong, if not a tick east thru Crushing firehouse for southern SNE, CT into NYC area at hr 27

Compared to 0z run, definitely ticked colder in eastern SNE at 850 and 925... but the WAA thump was not as robust as 0z, and mechanics are still a little disjointed... so not as robust a solution as NAM

Thru hr 30, H7 low definitely ticked northeast

Yeah I wouldn't take verbatim just yet, but it is very consistent with NAM which has been surprisingly steady for 6+ cycles now, and other guidance has ticked colder for eastern SNE...

Between work, baby, GME, haven’t posted as much as I’d like... This is looking great for SNE:

HREF supports NAM and HRRR: Thru Tues 0z only:

From 12z Initial thump will deliver

NAM is like [emoji184]🤲[emoji184]🤲[emoji184] Surprisingly may be the most steady guidance since Saturday Add CF enhancement to this:

0z NAM 10:1

Hour 54... 6z 2/2... huge hit on eastern SNE... actually a tick colder than 18z Is it fair to say that strangely enough, NAM has been one of the more consistent models today?

From Washington Post / Boston.com today... Not agreeing or disagreeing, and I know previously discussed here extensively... Simplistic explanation of recent SSW event, split PV, negative AO / NAO, possible implications for us: https://www.boston.com/uncategorized/weather/2021/01/05/the-polar-vortex-is-splitting-in-two-which-may-lead-to-weeks-of-wild-winter-weather

Cool to see the simultaneous OES echoes and storm echoes moving in opposite directions

34F, decent wet flakes on this side of the CF. Actually quickly whitening cars under these 30 dBZs! To quote Jerry, "this is what it's come to?"

Disparate pockets of moisture?

It was always a precarious setup, but wow what a poor showing for Euro within 24 hours of start... Maybe you can fudge the advisory level solutions in SNE, but look how drastically it changed in Maine.

I don't mind the map, as much as the fact that it somehow represents the primary forecast (vs. NWS) to the entire Boston.com audience, and also that he hates snow. I love it when he busts too low.

Agree, same impression off 12z Euro This 18z was a big run... Euro has been on its own this afternoon

Not so great on this particular run and disappoints the ME crowd, but the capture is probably still too sensitive and distant to pin down now

Yeah great to see 18z Euro double down on its 12z run... Euro is kind of on its own here with the 3-6/4-8 amounts into eastern MA, but I weigh it more than the rest.