Burghblizz

Had a Virga storm for awhile but it’s thumping now. 

18Z NAM looks largely the same - maybe a tick stronger and cooler. Extreme SW PA does a little better this run. Maybe that will be enough to expand the adv. 

36 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I’d go advisory 2”-5”.

Bottom and top end are two different impacts, but you can package it into one forecast that makes you look good 

Was about to claim victory for this since it popped up for me - but doesn’t look like they have one for AGC yet

Not even sure why I’m looking at this - but 12Z Euro takes next weekends monster storm and eliminates the severe cutting. Takes a primary into Ky/southern Oh, and then pops a secondary over DC. That look never seems to hold, but something to watch. 

5 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

Given continued uncertainty, have held of on any
Advisory/Warning decisions until later today.

I’d go advisory 2”-5”.

Bottom and top end are two different impacts, but you can package it into one forecast that makes you look good 

10 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Well I took my outside Christmas lights down today. I've been waiting to get another snow cover to see them but figured I might as well get it put away. So y'all can Thank me when your watching heavy snow tomorrow. 

Thanks! I’ve been holding out for the same reason. 

5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

It’s honestly, with how fast it falls, a borderline warning level event. Get like 4-6 inches in six hours.

KPIT is going to look bad on this one as well. They’ve basically been saying it’s a non event in the media which while things didn’t look great on some models there was always support for at least 1-3 inches on the models 

They still could be right - but I think somewhere in the middle…. 2-4” from NW to SE is becoming a good bet.

And like someone said - I’m also a big fan of rates (especially in the daytime). I’d be happy to get a couple hours of 1”+ in the middle of the day. 

I think weather karma owes us a last minute NW tick for all the last minute NW ticks that provided slop. 

With a gulf system that is also a quick hitter, I have a feeling the NAM is going to have a pretty good spread (higher) compared to other models.

I’d say let’s not dream too much of that so we aren’t disappointed by what looks like could be a nice moderate snowfall. 

Storm + game will be a fun day. The KC playoff loss in ‘21 was during a storm.

(the 9” storm that isn’t remembered too fondly since it came in two parts, and a few areas fell short)

Hoping this sets up to be a more positive day!

Nice to not just be relying on one model. NAM coming into range will be interesting. 

(If it sucks, we can say throw it aht it’s just the 84 hr NAM. If it’s good, it’s one more on board )

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Lol this is the graphic you are trusting. 

 

They always overdo route 119 from Uniontown to near Latrobe. I can say with almost 100% certainty it isn’t snowing 4” in Uniontown. It might 10 miles away and 800’ higher - but it’s just not happening where the population centers are. 

Interesting that they are trying to validate official readings through a car thermometer (I feel like mine always reads warm)

And wow as far as 2023 total snowfall.  That’s a 100 year type anomaly on the low side. And We very well could get shut out the rest of the way. 

Hopefully we start seeing at least a little digital snow to make things interesting. Maybe a long shot on Sunday. 

Clock’s officially ticking. Let’s go!

Was driving on the parkway north between Wexford and Warrendale and it was POUNDING. Roads mostly just wet, but visibility was briefly near zero 

I normally am not watching models this time of year. But I had some outside plans this evening and so have been paying attention. Not sure I have ever seen model agreement (and a forecast tied to it) that busted this bad.

Today was pegged to be dry for the last 5 days, and only last night did I see mention of a stray shower. Models (including short term) were bone dry until after dark. I wouldn’t be suprised if I’ve seen 1” of rain already. Would love to see that happen in the winter!

Would also be interesting to see why it was handled so poorly. Looks like these shortwaves diving down were stronger than progged

This one entering western AGC means business - but likely moving through quickly. 

Ground whitened in about 10 min with basically wind driven snow grains. 
 

Edit: now wind driven fatties. 

Edit^2: hasn’t stopped but sun has emerged melting most of what has fallen 

Fairly heavy snow right now. Enjoying every flake. Reestablishing my half inch from before. 
 

edit: maybe an actual whole inch in progress. It’s thumpin.

edit (2) - jinxed it…fizzled out after about .5”

Was pushing a sold half inch  early this morning, but going backwards now with more daylight. 

16 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

It has been pretty horrid. March is shaping up to be essentially what I really didn't want to happen. If only we could have swapped Feb and March patterns probably would have had a decent Feb, then we could jump right into a nice warm spring. Instead March is colder than Feb, but not quite cold enough for meaningful snow, just more dreary / damp / cool weather.

I mentally accepted this wasn't going to be a good year half way through January and checked out, did what I could outdoors with relatively nicer weather, especially those 60s and 70s in Feb. Only checked models every couple days except for those couple teases we had. If I were younger probably would have struggled more. I doubt this will be our winters going forward, but expect these types of seasons may become more common. Winter 2022-2023 will probably be best summarized / dealt with as the quote frequently repeated from Gandalf in Lord of the Rings:

I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” 

 

I really thought there would be a period at some point in Feb/March where we ran into 8”-10” over the course of 2 weeks.  And some people here would actually be more irritated because it padded the stats without a big storm.

Crazy that it doesn’t look like we will even get that. 

16 minutes ago, Ruin said:

do you think they did better before the major upgrades in the middle 2010s? it felt like it but again models felt like they were better in the 90s 

Lol - those were called forecasts.

Interesting stuff. I kind of assumed everything pre-1952 was AGC. I bet the 11.1950 storm was closer to 40” at the current location, but that’s lost to history. 
 

Sticking a ruler in the ground once a day downtown is going to give you a much different total than religiously clearing your snowboard at the airport. This year’s 14.5” probably aligns well with a single digit year pre 1952. Aren’t many that have been leaner when looked in that context. 
 

I *do* think the current location better represents where the population actually is. Of the metro areas ~2M people, I’d say 75% of those live above 1000’. Would pretty severely understate things if someone was out in point state park measuring snow. 

Was out near Live Casino tonight and it was windy as hell. LBE gusted to 60 and I’m pretty sure I felt similar gusts.

14 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Those were a long time ago, so weird we had bad winters back them too, hmmm?

Probably less dilligent about it. Don’t think they were out systematically measuring every .5” that fell before it melted. You see some old lean winters where you figure that had to be part of it.