Burghblizz

2 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

It’s amazing how triggered some of you get at any hint of climate change talk 

Wait - time out. Not sure who you “some of you” are. I have no issues with “climate change talk”. 

I have issues with the flat out obsession of a poster (or three) obsessing over every slice of data that might show a a degree or two warmer for *this* area. Local sensible weather (esp snowfall) has not declined here over extended periods

For 15+ years (going back to eastern), this thread has been about winter storm chasing. Sure we can acknowledge if it’s warm, etc. But some weird slice of data everyday?

I mean look at the Buffalo thread from last year. Climate Changer had 9 posts in a row about Lake Erie being a half degree warmer or some shit. Those guys went to Discord. They want to talk about chasing their 2-4’ lake band. 

So again…it’s not about the topic or the science. It’s about the place and frequency. 

14 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

If the mean stays the same over the next week, we would move into 9th place (and warmest in KPIT records). But looking at the forecast, I think the mean actually goes up this week.

No one cares 

25 minutes ago, donyewest said:

Pfft, not this guy.  I keep receipts and hold grudges LOL  Seriously though...I pay attention because a deficit is a deficit does a trendline make.  It's like gambling: You lose, come back to the table to lose again, and then try to play catchup but odds are not in your favor.  Snow is the only respite against the gloom of winter rain and swamp-humid days that run for most of the calendar year.  Especially now that I have a kid, I want them to enjoy winter as much as me, and appreciate cold weather...not be one of those people loving a +25F run in the middle of winter because they are cooold and don't own sweaters?

While gambling and winter seasons are both “independent trials” as far as what happens next, I think both have long term expected outcomes. 

Red and black on Roulette will come up the same % over the very long term. Pittsburgh will get 44” of snow a year over the long term.

And while there are broader climate considerations at play, there hasn’t been an extended period of time where those averages have significantly changed here. So I do think “payback is coming”. It’s worked that way throughout the period of recorded weather history. 

3 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Anyone peaking at sunday? Not a ton of cold air, but the GEFS is better than the Op GFS. 

Euro is not quite there…but close. 6-7” from 422 north. Foot plus north central Pa.
 

Considerably east versus yesterday with snow significantly farther south. Another shift like that and we’re in. Unfortunately,  not the direction you would expect the Euro to shift, but worth watching. 

58 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I also think the fact two of those 8-12 events were in March makes us misremember them since it melts fast. That 2018 match event was prolonged and I’m not sure the roads ever even caved. 

I had 9” in Monroeville March 2013 as well. Maybe this underperformed at the airport, but this was another nice March storm. So I wouldn’t say the few years after 2010 had nothing, just these memories tend to fade quicker than huge storms. 

I don’t think the NWS frequency page is ever updated, and I never liked the way they do their end points. Ive stopped looking at it, but I think it had something like:

5”+’twice a year…. 8-12” once every 2 years….13”+ once every 14.

So you can spin the expectancy of a 12” type storm a couple different ways, but a storm that pushes or exceeds double digits is about a once every 2 year thing historically. 

The good news is those solid 8-12” snowstorms that had been missing for a bunch of years have been better. I think we have 4 since 2018 (5 for some people that caught the lake band).

So despite the horrible last 15 months, that is a positive overall. We are also officially due for a mega storm. 

GFS is close to something for next Sunday. Good track - just not quite enough cold.

Probably a good idea to put this one down for few days and just check back around Thursday    Low probability as it looks now, but falling at peak climo for cold. 

Even though I didn’t get that main band, it reminded me how much a love this. Sometimes tons of tracking doesn’t play out. But other times, you get something like that mesoscale feature that you would have never predicted 3 or 4 days out. 

And as far as overall “climate”…sure it’s changing. And it’s impacting some things.

But we need a helluva lot more than a poor 18 month stretch to glean that our sensible “snow weather” is significantly different. The data just doesn’t show that.

Our 30 year snow averages continue to go up. And that included a drought that happened in the early 90s. Then we cranked out 3 70” winters over the next 40 months.

Climate change and “snowing a lot in Pgh” aren’t mutually exclusive, especially when viewed in our lifetimes. 

NWS Weather “headlines” aren’t scores. They are just one services way to broadly communicate what they think will happen. We like watches and warnings as weather fans because it kind of validates our tracking.

But no one in there right mind is going to check that 5 years from now. No one cares. People will however remember being stuck in 2” per hour rates.

In fact, headlines are for “county averages”, not for one location. So clearly this was an event that averaged at least 4” in the county. It absolutely “verified” (which again, is just us talking, not some official score).

If that band was 10 miles east and the kid working last night at NWS thought “hmm…I’m puttin up a warning for the county”, does that count as a WSW verified? Or no because half the county didn’t get it?

This stuff can be spun either way. But it’s silly try to position it so it fits the trolling agenda. It was a good winter day for most…a great winter day for some. 

2 minutes ago, TimB said:

Only need to get to Dec. 22.

Go to banter with the trolling.  Taking this thread back. Yesterday was fun with actual weather and weather conversations. Don’t need 30 more posts because a ruler missed by .1, or was 2 miles in the wrong spot. Clutter. 

29 minutes ago, TimB said:

Lol. The streak continues. No advisory level snowfalls at PIT in 678 days. 23 to go for 2nd place.

If u move to Philly, DC or Central Park, you can see 700 day stretches before seeing even an inch.

12 miles from the airport had 10” yesterday. So let’s not carry this stat forward anymore. If the official total got it, you would have said “well that doesn’t count because I didn’t get ituhhh”

23 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Jealous but you guys usually get screwed since most of our misses are usually the WTOD. I usually just look on the bright side less to shovel, and I hurt my back squating so less stress on it. 

Looks like a January thaw and then we reload. Let's hope we all cash in on 8+. Could this be our year for a record breaking storm? You never know. We haven't seen anything really over 12 since 2010. 2018 I think was close and maybe that one storm in Decmeber. I want a blizzard one day. 

December 2020 was a fairly widespread average that approached a foot.

Spotter 2 miles from me reported 4.5”, so that’s what I’ll go with.

Had 3.5” from main shield. Picked up about a half inch in about 20 minutes in the LES band. Then a little bit after that, including another littlep snow shower just now. 

Funny how the bigger snows circumvented the weenies fighting and made it to some good posters.

Maybe being positive will lead to better snows! 

45 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

From the obs yeah some people may wind up with an 8 inch total. 

Just saw McMurray - 8.5”

Havent seem an official KPIT total. What’s funny is I think the office is slightly north of the airport. And in watching the band, it may have mostly missed them even though it was snowing at the actual airport.

I’m not someone that rips on NWS because they aren’t giving me the “headlines” I want…

But man, this band needed something more than continuing an advisory for 1-2” additional. 

There is going to be a wide swath (or at least long swath) of areas that got an additional 4-5” in a matter of hours. 

Slightly jealous, but happy for the southern posters that can be on the front lines of screwdom sometimes.

51 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Looks like a general 3”-5”. It will be fun to see who pops 6”+ where the band persisted. (I was not one of them, but it doesn’t mean it doesn’t count - lol). Congrats to those cashing in. 
 

I saw a 6” in Monesson and 8.5” in Lisbon, Oh where the band originally posted up

 

East Liverpool - 8”. Just missed that by 30 miles 

2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

You can still see what people quoted lol. 

I think there are different levels of block.

(but I’m honestly not sure. I just have one person blocked that last posted in 2011 and can’t remember why)

The ignore button would solve some of y’all’s problems 

Looks like a general 3”-5”. It will be fun to see who pops 6”+ where the band persisted. (I was not one of them, but it doesn’t mean it doesn’t count - lol). Congrats to those cashing in. 
 

I saw a 6” in Monesson and 8.5” in Lisbon, Oh where the band originally posted up

Feb 1994 (I think) we got 8” off a similar band with a double lake connection. Starting to think you might see that where it is training in Ohio. I’m hallucinating it sliding east, but will be interesting. 

East Liverpool has 4.5” and is still firmly in that band. I bet they top 6”.

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

thumping good in bethel park now

I feel like south hills are in a good spot for this main weenie band.