Burghblizz

EURO more WEST. Sneaking a leak (and a peek) in a meeting, but I think it’s output is going to be nice (esp city and east)

Stronger and maybe a little dicey for the Mon Valley. North of city looks great. Still good run IMO since there is some “too far east” leaning guidance out there too

Oh boy…

Roads are getting bad pretty quickly. I could see places in the Mon/Yough valley pulling out 4” or 5”

Crazy that last year we already had a double digit storm in the books, and was knocking on the door of our 3rd 6”er. On the bright side - hasn’t been any stress or disappointment yet. But I’m more than ready for it

1.6” officially. Mostly wet in the city. Impressive for 4.21!

I like the way the snow came too. Nice big chunks. So maybe we didn’t hit prodigious season totals since the ending fizzled, but enjoyable. (I bet we do add something to that total, just not counting on anything that changes the overall winter assessment)

RIP Bob Kudzma Fun fact is that he drove a bus for 18 years after he retired on the air. Just something he said was his dream as a kid. Seems like he was a good guy. Growing up he was like the NAM with the juiced up totals, and Denardo as like the Euro (except this yr) telling us not so fast. He used to say that he forcasted to prepare people. Throw Bowman in there and it was quite a nice local met dynamic. Definitely appointment TV to get their forcasts after tracking a storm on TWC 5 day business planner.

Gotta love it here. I probably spent 15 hours on the bigger “second wave” for Monday night. Not one flake. Then it snows 2” by almost by accident.

NAM and GFS agree about as often as opposing political parties - but they have both been pretty consistent for a quick 2”-3” Monday morning (NAM maybe a tad more because it’s actually a little colder)

I got a nice band overnight and woke up to about 2” on my car (so we’ll call it slightly less). But then that dry slot was fierce.

I have a theory that it’s really undermodeled up the 119 corridor, just west of the ridges. That’s the area that the newer models really show the enhanced screw zone first when the warm tongue is an issue. But it also appears that that area does very well during WWA snows. I could be way off in saying that somehow the positioning relative to the ridges makes that process more efficient - but it sure seems that way. Exhibit A to that theory is that corridor is getting drilled pretty good right now

I could see 5” or 6” south east of the city. Moisture looks pretty robust and those areas will be in it longer, I was half expecting some Virga with this first batch, but sticking efficiently. Could be another little storm where we maximize every flake!

Meanwhile - snowing pretty hard again right now. Band looks mostly west-east going through the city and just south

Basically a guy named Kuchera came up with a complicated formula. We like it because it usually shows more snow. So you will see it more on this forum. But what I think it is is a formula that uses the highest temp found at 500 mb, and thus can account for temps in the column a little better. I think the intial intent was to project how much compacting will take place, but it does usually show more than 10:1 unless there is a lot of sleet. Thats basically what I remember - but I mostly like it because it shows more snow

A little over an inch today officially of bonus snow

Those Southern Ohio zones (which would figure to do similar to us with this) have a lower threshold. They can pop em up with 4”+ expected

These days are nice when u have a decent snowpack.

60 days ago...:-)

NAM a little better. Looks like 7-8”. Double digits into Greene and Fayette. Nice little 12-15” weenie area in northern WV. Just need to pop that north a bit (I’m talking that precip area, knowing that it will be shaved down in real life)

That was me in Dec ‘92 and Jan 96. But I’ve learned that I’ll deal with that if I get a foot. That’s kind of my threshold Now 1.16 was a kick in the nuts. Got 5” while 40 miles away got 20” Thankful to have been on the good side of that in 03 and 2010

Here were the Euro ensembles on Saturday. Not 5 days out, 48 hours out. As tight of a cluster as you see, with one major outlier. It wound up west of that outlier. Not sure what caused performance that poor, but certainly some time for this to slide NW this time. (Again, from Saturday)

The “science” is the southeast bias in the models. Let’s watch them come to us over the next 24 hours (Of course when we need it...lol)

That used to be taken from NWS. They started doing their own like 15 years ago

I’m not sure places north and west did that great, even into western Ohio and New York State. Seems like a lot of low ratios and quick moving. I didn’t really look until now, but wanted to see what we missed out on.