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Burghblizz

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Everything posted by Burghblizz

  1. Burghblizz
    Just saying it’s a mesoscale model that is usually over amped with a west bias outside of 36 hours. If the globals all trend that way tonight, then I’ll be more worried
  2. Burghblizz
    You know how sometimes the NAM reels us in when we are on the western fringe? This is that run for Illinois. I doubt other guidance follows. And when it’s right or “on to something” outside 36 hours, it’s usually with rapidly deepening systems
  3. Burghblizz
    I was about to post the same “probably too early” look at it as well. It’s showing that first wave to be pretty robust. 5” by noon Monday would be off and running
  4. Burghblizz
    I’m less concerned about total output at this point and more concerned with sliding that boundary to the SE. Keep some wiggle room
  5. Burghblizz
    King looking a bit colder at 12z
  6. Burghblizz
    Guess you have to be on a boat to get big snows from the Canadian. But it’s definitely a colder/more east solution. Doesn’t appear to flirt with the mixing as much
  7. Burghblizz
    Anecdotal, but it historically sniffs out storms that try to cut west when they are close. I’ll start feeling real good if it’s next few runs look like NAM/GFS
  8. Burghblizz
    0z NAM looking colder. Looking more like GFS. Still snowing at 84. It’s tight, but basically puts a diagonal line through the state from SW to NE. Northern side of the line looking good.
  9. Burghblizz
    Ukmet is where it’s at
  10. Burghblizz
    Time to break out the weenie adage that the models don’t handle snowpack well, and the actual temps and track will be more suppressed
  11. Burghblizz
    Think there is a good bit of sleet in there as depicted by TT. (which I could live with with a nice snow pack and significant snow) Otherwise that Heavy Snow/mix line is tight
  12. Burghblizz
    Yeah, many times we are rooting for it to go negative as it helps to capture and keep a coastal storm tight to the coast or on the Piedmont. Rooting more progressive here at least until it gets past this point as depicted on the NAM. Taken literally, I think we would like hour 87.
  13. Burghblizz
  14. Burghblizz
    GFS is looking a bit like the Euro. Runs a first wave out on Monday. We get a decent shot of snow out of it. That’s great, but here is the question. Does that work to erode the high a bit, and thus let the bigger storm ride north farther? Maybe, maybe not. It’s a good run for Western PA overall, just something to watch as to it being a tad warmer. It’s a mess farther east.
  15. Burghblizz
    Looking Cleaner. HP doing it’s job (honestly it’s probably not worth mentioning the 12”+ swath yet - but I guess I just did )
  16. Burghblizz
    Warm. Tongue. Of. Death. :-) Euro looks to show 3 separate waves. An inch or so Saturday, a couple Monday, and then the bigger storm Monday night into Tuesday. The bigger storm tries to cut, but runs into a wall in Kentucky. Looks like it then redevelops in NC and runs up to the Delmarva. Might not be completely clean, but certainly 8-10” through that period.
  17. Burghblizz
    yeah, It’s not the typical WTOD. We would keep our snow pack and still stack 7-8” on top.
  18. Burghblizz
    Got some nice fat flakes falling - 1.5”
  19. Burghblizz
    We aren’t going to nearly have the moisture fetch that we had the other night. But again the frigid ground is making every flake count. Part of the reason roads became a mess quickly
  20. Burghblizz
    Monday/Tuesday - Basically has 6-10” in six hours just north of the city. I mean a 80 mile wide 150 mile long swath of those rates. Obviously way too early to be looking at that Still makes up west of us before a late redevelopment. So not great, but close to something big.
  21. Burghblizz
    I’d probably take it one out of ten (but this might be the one since we would be preserving snowpack, and for once in my life I’m not commuting daily)
  22. Burghblizz
    Canada loving Morgantown and the border counties tonight
  23. Burghblizz
    Snowing in Dallas with a 1048 H to the north. Doesn’t seem likely it would cut that hard
  24. Burghblizz
    I think pre-1950 they were at the KAGC site. Similar elevation, just a tad south
  25. Burghblizz
    Airport definitely lighter than the city this time. Probably missed that intial real heavy band. Solid 5-6” closer to city
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