Festus

Today's runs should be interesting as associated features now onshore.  Wouldn't be surprised to see better consensus as data improves.

Just posted by psuHoffman in MA.  One of a handful of posters there who I pay attention to:

I think we’re still in the game for a very significant storm but I don’t think this has HECS 20”+ potential for 95.  I don’t think anyone is expecting that. We have a -NAO but not a true block. 95 really does need a classic block usually to get those storms. Also what’s going on across Canada isn’t ideal for those hecs storms. The trough amplifying there will pull this north. To get a hecs we typically want the storm cut off from the NS there and higher pressure over the top. That’s when we get a storm to crawl to off the Delmarva then slide ENE. 
 

This is going to lift north pretty sharply. This will be a storm that runs the coast. Kinda old school, these used to be way more common than recently. And they can be pretty good but not 20” good in DC usually.  The key will be how far southeast we can get the H5 before it gets captured and lifts north and how much resistance the cold can make to get a really nice WAA thump.  Any deform is bonus. The 2014 storm was this type. One of the 1987 storms was and worked out to like 10” in DC. There was a similar storm to this evolution in 66 that was good in DC. There are also examples where this can go wrong if the h5 gets captured too soon. That’s why faster is better. Get it into the southeast before the trough amplified and it lifts.  There were 2 storms in 1994 that remind me of this also.  Early January and one in early March. Those were more ehh with like 2-4 in DC and a lot more west. 

Thakara says weekend storm whiff to the south so we still have a chance (probably right though).

Wind Chill Advisory issued for NE PA for early Tuesday AM.  Gotta think we'll have wind chill below 0 here for a time.

Right on the hairy edge here.  Looking at maybe 2 dozen local WU stations, most are 31.x while a few are just over 32.  KLNS showing 33.1.  My driveway is just wet but the decking is icy.

CTP’s latest AFD shows some definite concern for Sunday.  Some type of Winter Advisory product(s) appear imminent.

3.75" on my pseudo board.  Street is plowed already.  Gotta give the township props on whoever they contracted to plow.  

59 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

South of the Border is this country's original sin. 

OMG too funny.  We actually stopped on the way home from Florida at like 7:00 AM.  Way too many adjectives to list here but yes, this is hanging on our still-standing Christmas tree.

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I saw a lot depends on the water content.  So your easy question just went to all hell.  LOL.  Also depends on length of surface.  Small driveway and 2-3" seems like someone trying to show off their toys.  LOL. 

About 2500 sq ft.  Assume 10:1.  Age is also a factor as I'm 57.  Sincere distaste of shoveling as well.  After performing a Fourier Transform on the above as well as other factors, I'm voting 2". 

I think we know where we stand on "plowable" (I think) but what's the over/under for using the snow blower?  I don't want to look too wimpy by blowing 2" but I think 4" is a no brainer.  What say thee?  

WWA issued for Adams, York and Lancaster.  2 - 4".

From the semi but not totally useless department, today is the latest sunrise around these parts.

And to really wow your friends, today is also coincidentally Earth's closest orbital distance to the sun.

Radar has been blue overhead for 8 hours now and have yet to see a flake.  DP down to 19.  Sister in law lives near St Michaels MD (east shore of Chesapeake) and reports roughly 4" on the ground and snowing heavily.  Oh so close.

8 hours ago, Festus said:

Local TV Mets were pretty bullish on a mix event tomorrow.  Maybe our first WWA of the season is possible down this way.

WWA for Lebanon and Dauphin but not Lancaster (and a few counties west of Lancaster).  I think CTP did that just to spite me.

Local TV Mets were pretty bullish on a mix event tomorrow.  Maybe our first WWA of the season is possible down this way.

Back from summer hibernation.  Got to give you guys credit for staying active year round.  Guess there's weather outside winter after all.

And from the quirk 'o calendar department, today is actually the earliest sunset.  The latest sunrise isn't for another month.  Both due to the difference between true astronomical time and calendar time.

https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/equation-of-time.html

Windiest by far here at the moment.  I'd imagine Kuchera would have us at about 6' by now.

I would think (hope?) the Susquehanna should fare OK since most of the watershed will not see much if anything.  It's the small and mid size stuff that could be problematic.

85 here.  The clouds of pollen coming off our pines is shocking.  Walked to the end of my yard and back and shoes were green.  Yuck.

WSW issued for New York PA border counties for 5 - 10 through Thursday.  Gotta think at least advisories get hoisted for northern PA.  

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

EC is down with the early April deep freeze now.   Nice frontal passage with big temp swing preceding it. 

CPC says nada.  Looks like something's gotta give...

2 hours ago, canderson said:

CTP echoes my wind thoughts but they're even more ominous that I imagined. 

Yep, High Wind Watch issued for western PA for gusts to 60.  Almost surely Advisory level if not the full High Wind product will be issued for the rest of us.

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Wyoming certainly looks like it will end up as ground zero. Some places already at 20" with a good 12-18 hours to go 

They even bumped up the numbers from yesterday.  Absolutely unbelievable. 

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Very heavy snow and blowing snow. Total snow
  accumulations of 20 to 30 inches with local amounts up to 50
  inches above 8000 feet elevation. Wind gusts up to 60 MPH.

Just for kicks, it's certainly still winter...

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1151 AM MST Sat Mar 13 2021

...HISTORIC AND CRIPPLING WINTER STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ALL OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
WEEKEND...

...WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...

...CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MST THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Very heavy snow and blowing snow likely. Blizzard
  conditions developing overnight. Total snow accumulations of 15
  to 25 inches, with locally higher amounts in excess of 30 inches
  possible. Wind gusts up to 55 MPH.

* WHERE...Central and eastern Laramie County including the cities
  of Cheyenne and Pine Bluffs.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM MDT Monday. Blizzard conditions are most
  likely late tonight through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Extremely dangerous or impossible travel conditions.
  Whiteout conditions likely in falling and blowing snow. Strong
  winds may cause extensive damage to trees and power lines. Power
  outages are likely. Conditions will be life threatening to those
  caught unprepared.

I have officially hit 12 hours of usable daylight today.  If there's one downside of winter, it's that dark at 5:00 PM crap.