Festus

2 hours ago, canderson said:

CTP echoes my wind thoughts but they're even more ominous that I imagined. 

Yep, High Wind Watch issued for western PA for gusts to 60.  Almost surely Advisory level if not the full High Wind product will be issued for the rest of us.

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Wyoming certainly looks like it will end up as ground zero. Some places already at 20" with a good 12-18 hours to go 

They even bumped up the numbers from yesterday.  Absolutely unbelievable. 

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Very heavy snow and blowing snow. Total snow
  accumulations of 20 to 30 inches with local amounts up to 50
  inches above 8000 feet elevation. Wind gusts up to 60 MPH.

Just for kicks, it's certainly still winter...

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1151 AM MST Sat Mar 13 2021

...HISTORIC AND CRIPPLING WINTER STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
ALL OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
WEEKEND...

...WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...

...CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MST THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Very heavy snow and blowing snow likely. Blizzard
  conditions developing overnight. Total snow accumulations of 15
  to 25 inches, with locally higher amounts in excess of 30 inches
  possible. Wind gusts up to 55 MPH.

* WHERE...Central and eastern Laramie County including the cities
  of Cheyenne and Pine Bluffs.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM MDT Monday. Blizzard conditions are most
  likely late tonight through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Extremely dangerous or impossible travel conditions.
  Whiteout conditions likely in falling and blowing snow. Strong
  winds may cause extensive damage to trees and power lines. Power
  outages are likely. Conditions will be life threatening to those
  caught unprepared.

I have officially hit 12 hours of usable daylight today.  If there's one downside of winter, it's that dark at 5:00 PM crap.  

Dang!  I want what y'all been getting.  My 1/4 mile marker still clearly visible.  Hopefully soon!

Squall warning expired.  Seemed a bit much at least for me.  Never dropped below 1/4 mile.  About 3/8 right now.

* Snow Squall Warning for...
Lancaster County in south central Pennsylvania...
Southeastern Adams County in south central Pennsylvania...
York County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 915 AM EST.

* At 828 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along the
leading edge of an area of heavy snow extending from near Dover to
near Littlestown, moving east at 40 mph.

Advisory issued...

229 PM EST Sun Feb 21 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches,
  with up to 4 inches possible across the higher terrain along
  Interstate 81 in Schuylkill County and over Sullivan County.
  Winds gusting from the south up to 30 mph on the ridges.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 3 PM EST Monday.

Posted by one of the mets in the MA forum.  I vote let's just go with this and close the thread from further discussion.

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm every bit as ugly in person as my pic suggests. 

This has been talked about before, we really should do this. 

A lot of you guys are very impressive in terms of weather prediction skills.  And I'd imagine most are self taught which is even more impressive.  I did 2 years of Meteorology at Millersville before switching majors (Barry Walton era - yikes) and we would draw isobars and isotherms by hand (double yikes).  Always interested in weather but some of you really take it to the next level.  And yes, a meeting would be fantastic.

Crazy reading the last page or 2 how close so many of us are geographically yet experience such different results this time of year.  Whenever covid eases, we should have a gathering.  I can only imagine how different most of us are in person versus how we are perceived on this board.

York and Lancaster WSW version - 

WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...York and Lancaster Counties.

There's been a lot of understandable frustration with models this winter but just realize what what they are up against...ridiculously complex thermo and fluid atmospheric dynamics coupled with inadequate sampling.  Then trying to pinpoint individual feature days in advance from features hundreds if not thousands of miles away.  I think it's a miracle they even get close.  

WWA was updated down this way from this morning's 2 - 3" to:

208 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday.

Light snow, temp 33, roads wet.  Meh.

Winter Storm Watch issued by LWX for Maryland Mason-Dixon border counties and Chester county on east.

At least we don't have to chase models anymore now that we have the groundhog forecast coming out.  That was exhausting.

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Just to your west by about 10 miles, I'm in very light snow now. Borderline flurries. 8.1" storm total. 

Man that's crazy.  It is pounding here.  We're gonna see some weird storm totals from this one.

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

They are under one the great bands that last for hours, hope it would rotate west but I doubt it. 

I think central and eastern Lanco getting some scraps from that and it's not too shabby.  I'm back to under 1/2 mile at the moment.

Looks like the bands of doom are approaching Reading dropping SW.  If those hold together...holy moly.

Just heard from Eli Stolzfus down the street.  He said "it's makin' dawn naw!"  Visibility 1/4 mile here.

Silence finally!  No more sleet pounding against the house.  Pivot axis SE of PHL and filling a bit.  Plenty o' duration to go.

Seeing some shredded flakes mixed in (perhaps a new breakfast idea).  Appears changeover is imminent here.  Glad I did not shovel yet.  Don't want all this crap on the bottom.  

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well, Horst is getting excited about the remainder of the day. Says that conditions will rapidly deteriorate this afternoon and told people to think about heading home from work now. 

Tweet - "Coming up on Noontime, and the 3rd Act is beginning! There's still a bit of warm air aloft (causing sleet), but this layer will cool as heavier precip develops the next few hours. Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly this afternoon, so it would be prudent to get home soon!"