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Festus

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    Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    I'll just add this - does anyone have any idea how many times CTP has hoisted Winter Storm Warnings, Advisories, etc. only for them to end up not verifying?

    Me either. But I'll tell you it has happened a lot. People complain about why no advisory, why no warning, why no this or that...they've issued a ton of warnings over the years that failed. Remember that piece, too. 

    A couple of years ago CTP had a Winter Storm Warning for Harrisburg for 8-10" of snow the morning of the storm. I thought they were ludicrous, but everyone else in here was happy. That afternoon they dropped it to an advisory for 2-4". People started blasting them. Then the snow started and some here were demanding that the warning got reissued. It didn't. MDT finished with 2.9" of snow. Advisory verified. Warning fell far short. Point is - with some people, they were wrong either way. 

    They do their best. Personally, I think the criticism is often unfair and unwarranted. 

    Go ahead. Tell me how wrong I am.  

     

    I don't think CTP sucks per se, but when I look at the output of LWX, PHI and BGM, they all are superior in terms of discussion, explanations and timeliness.  Now who is most accurate?  Beats me and of course that's where the rubber hits the road for Joe Public.  And as Atomic stated earlier, it's only us weenies would be having this type of discussion.

    Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Well there’s a WWA both north and south but zippo here.  I know it won’t change what actually will happen but you’d giving folks a heads up on upcoming hazardous weather would be prudent.  Isn’t that one of the NWS primary functions?  
    Maybe we can start a petition down this way to secede from CTP and join Mount Holly.  At least they have their shit together.  (Aside - can you imagine going door to door with such a petition?  I’d venture 99% of folks would have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, lol.)

    Edit: WWA issued!  All is well in the world once again.  

    Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    "Itstrainingtime"

    • I am a HUGE steam train fan
    • I do a lot of regulatory compliance and personal development training at work
    • It's also a nod to "training" storms

    I combined 3 passions that all had synergy in one name. 

    Dude, that's awesome!  We had a selfie party with the 611 this past season.  Holy shit, was that thing cool!  Anyway, back to weather.

    Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Yea, that had to be the fastest WWA ever reported.  I was literally on CTP's site checking out the LWX version when Cashtown posted.  The county hadn't even changed color yet!  But even 1-3" tonight combined with temps in the teens with winds gusting upper 30's tomorrow should make it interesting here.

    And it has never actually stopped snowing here so far although what has fallen has melted.  Temp 31.  Must be a sun angle thing :lol:.

    Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Priceless AFD from Mount Holly.  So you want to be an NWS forecaster...uh, well, 

    SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...Major winter storm possible for much of the region Friday
night and Saturday...

It has been a live-or-die-by-every-model-timestep sort of night here
at the office. And what the models give, they also take away, which
basically describes the model variability we have seen the past
couple of days with the potential winter storm for our region Friday
night and Saturday. The 00z suite has made a notable consensus shift
westward with the low tracking just off the coast, but the high
volatility/variability remains. The 00z GFS is a far-east outlier
solution and basically brings little snow to the CWA for the whole
event. Meanwhile, the 00z NAM returned the snow to our area, in a
large return of departure from the 18z NAM no-show (no-snow) event.
The 00z CMC brings a blockbuster storm to the area, with widespread
warning criteria south and east of the Fall Line; the 00z ECMWF is
only somewhat drier than its 12z predecessor run. The 00z UKMET went
sharply west, with meaningful QPF/snow for much of the area.

The model volatility with this system has been something to behold.
Such run-to-run spread is typical/expected for these types of
events, given the highly complicated interdependent phenomena
involved. However, simple analysis of the spread in the National
Blend of Models is enlightening; the 04z NBM V4.0 (V4.1) 50th
percentile storm total snow for the Philly area was around 1.5 (1)
inch(es). The 75th percentile storm total snow was around 8 (10)
inches, or roughly an order-of-magnitude difference between the
median and the upper quartile. Bottom line here: the storm total
snow forecast remains highly uncertain and subject to large changes
in subsequent forecasts.

Observation-wise, it will be critical to assess three
regions/phenomena as the event unfolds: (1) the strength/depth,
orientation, and speed of a northern-stream digging vort max through
the Midwest on Friday morning, (2) the orientation and speed of a
southern-stream vort max in the southern Plains around this same
time, and (3) the low-level response to the phasing trough near/off
the Southeast coast Friday night (e.g., the 850-mb heights and
winds). The progressive solutions have a more compact and faster
northern-stream vort max and a slower southern-stream vort max,
which results in upper low development farther east (and generally
too far east for our region to see substantive snow); the snowier
solutions acquire phasing and neutral to negative tilt of the large-
scale trough more quickly (and thus, farther west). Trends in the
low-level response are obvious Friday night -- the NAM/CMC (aside
from the errant 18z NAM simulation) are positioning the 850-mb
low/trough farther southwest. The GFS is much noisier, exhibiting
little trend. Notably, the 00z GEFS featured unusually low spread,
which makes me wholly suspicious of the deterministic and ensemble
output from its suite.

With the model camps making the GFS more and more of an outlier,
tonight`s forecast is generally a non-GFS consensus blend. This
preserves a considerable amount of continuity to fields of
importance such as PoPs, QPF, and snow amounts. The main changes
were to sharpen the gradient of snow totals near/northwest of the I-
95 corridor, with 1-3 inch totals northwest of the Fall Line, 3-6
inch totals in the urban corridor and immediately adjacent areas,
and 6-12 inch totals roughly from Easton, MD, to New Brunswick, NJ.
Again, there is enormous uncertainty with these forecast totals. If
the more progressive solutions pan out, very little snow may occur
in a large chunk of the area. If the slower/stronger solutions pan
out, heavier totals would occur at least to the Fall Line. Continue
to monitor the forecasts, as large changes may occur leading up to
the event.

Based on the forecast totals, we have issued a winter storm watch
for all of Delmarva, far southeastern Pennsylvania, and most of
central and southern New Jersey from 7 pm Friday to 7 pm Saturday.
Will fine-tune the timing once warnings/advisories are issued, but
this is the general time window of concern for our area.
    • Like 1

    Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Here's this mornings Mount Holly AFD regarding the weekend storm.  It's a shame we're stuck with CTP. 

    All eyes remain on the late week period with the potential for a
strong coastal storm to affect portions of the Eastern Seaboard. In
short, there has not been much change to the forecast philosophy nor
the gridded forecast. Overnight guidance, minus the 0z EC, generally
favored a further offshore and less impactful evolution from this
storm versus yesterday`s 12z runs. But at this stage, it is
difficult to say whether these runs are any more reliable than those
of yesterday, which generally showed a higher impact event. The
storm threat remains, and we will be continuing to monitor.

In terms of the technicals, it is pretty remarkable the sensitivity
that operational guidance is showing to what the placement of a
shortwave trough moving out of western Canada will be come late
Thursday. There are other factors in play, and it will be a complex
evolution, but that shortwave is the big one. It will be somewhere
over the Southwest US by Thursday evening, but how far west it is
will determine whether that shortwave gets left behind, or whether
it phases with additional energy downstream. Much of the 24.12z
guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and
further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather
impacts for the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z
and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more,
resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much
impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen
in a faster phase scenario. These sort of fluctuations are common at
this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to
speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will
reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events
where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range.
So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based
on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start
to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or
tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more
generic messaging remains prudent.

     

    Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    On 1/23/2022 at 2:00 PM, Festus said:

    As has been the case here recently, blue overhead on radar, slate gray sky ... and ... bupkis.  DP is 16 so sure looks like bupkis will continue for quite a bit longer.

    Same shit...different day.  Except DP is 19 now.  Too funny.  Is anyone getting anything from this so far?  What's moving through Pittsburg right now doesn't look too bad.

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