jaxjagman

Hydrologic Outlook Hydrologic Outlook TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-020515- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 1106 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...Spring Flood Outlook... ...Above Average Risk for Flooding This Spring Across Middle Tennessee... Existing Conditions... Middle Tennessee and much of the Mid-South have been dealing with recent heavy rainfall, resulting in an elevated flood threat for the area in the short-term. Recent temperatures have been above normal as well, and many trees and plants are coming out of winter hibernation. The warmer and wetter trend is expected to continue this spring creating an above average risk for future flooding. Streamflows... Current streamflows are well above normal in due to recent rainfall, with many rivers above Flood Stage. Water levels on these rivers, along with the smaller creeks and streams will subside over the next few days but levels on the lower reaches of the Cumberland River and Tennessee River will remain high through the first next week or two of March. Rainfall... Precipitation has been near to above normal for most of the fall and winter, with January being the only significantly dry month across the area. Here are some rainfall totals across Middle Tennessee... Nashville Clarksville Crossville October 3.48 (+0.44) 7.18 (+3.27) 6.23 (+3.19) November 4.46 (+0.15) 2.34 (-2.24) 4.24 (-0.86) December 4.56 (+0.32) 4.38 (-0.65) 4.56 (-0.39) January 1.63 (-2.12) 3.59 (+0.28) 1.68 (-3.08) February 10.91 (+6.97) 9.71 (+5.54) 10.48 (+6.02) Climate Outlooks... The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center indicates there is a higher probability of above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across the area for the months of March, April, and May. Summary... Overall, the spring flood threat across Middle Tennessee is well above average in the short-term due to the ongoing flooding and the saturated grounds. An early green-up of vegetation will help diminish the flood threat for the rest of the spring, however, the higher probability above normal precipitation creates an above average risk for flooding through the end of May. $$

For the month of Feb. This was the wettest all-time Feb. for Memphis and Jackson.Nashville finished at #3

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 02 FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS HEAVY RAINFALL NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 300 AM CST THU MAR 01 2018 ...HEAVY RAIN STRETCHES FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER SOME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TEN DAYS... FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WATCHES AND FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV AT 200 AM CST...A SURFACE LOW OF 1006 MB OR 29.71 INCHES WAS LOCATED IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED EASTWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT STRETCHED SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TEXAS. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. MODERATE RAIN SPREAD NORTH OF THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...KENTUCKY...NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. ...SELECTED PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 800 AM CST TUE FEB 27 THROUGH 200 AM CST THU MAR 01... ...ALABAMA... BRIDGEPORT 4 SSW 3.75 ESTILL FORK 3.65 HUNTSVILLE 3.58 NEW MARKET 3.25 FLORENCE 3.19 MADISON 3.15 SCOTTSBORO MUNI ARPT 3.14 DECATUR - PRYOR FIELD 2.59 NORTHWEST AL RGNL ARPT 2.25 ...ARKANSAS... SHERIDAN 4.96 DE QUEEN 4 NW 4.48 NUNELY 3 SE 4.47 LITTLE DIXIE 1 E 4.32 JESSIEVILLE 6 N 4.29 HOT SPRINGS NATIONAL PARK 3.83 LITTLE ROCK ADAMS FIELD 3.83 TEXARKANA RGNL - WEBB FIELD 3.18 ...GEORGIA... EPWORTH 5 SW 4.04 ELLIJAY 4.00 FLINTSTONE 1 NNE 3.63 TRENTON 3.30 TOCCOA 3.05 FORT OGLETHORPE 2.91 ...LOUISIANA... SHREVEPORT 1.68 CANEY 1.53 BELLEVUE 2 N 1.45 ...MISSISSIPPI... CORINTH 4 W 4.78 HOLLY SPRINGS 4 N 3.94 WINBORN 3.65 FALCON 7 W 3.51 NESBIT 3.23 TISHOMINGO 2.47 ...NORTH CAROLINA... MURPHY 2.78 RANGER 2.71 UNAKA 2.55 BEAVER CREEK 2.43 ...OKLAHOMA... BROKEN BOW 4.19 IDABEL 3.22 VALLIANT 2.89 DURANT 2.00 CLOUDY 1.64 ...SOUTH CAROLINA... ANDREW PICKENS 2.03 SENECA 1.88 CLEMSON-OCONEE COUNTY ARPT 1.86 ...TENNESSEE... WAYNESBORO 5.13 SOUTH PITTSBURG 4.90 BOLIVAR 4.75 BELLS 2 SW 4.66 LEXINGTON 4.09 SAVANNAH/HARDIN CO 3.99 MEMPHIS INTL ARPT 3.69 CHATTANOOGA LOVELL FIELD 3.64 JACKSON MCKELLAR-SIPES RGNL ARPT 3.64 ...TEXAS... ALLEN 5.11 DALLAS FORT WORTH INTL ARPT 4.76 CLARKSVILLE 3.22 HALTOM CITY 1 ENE 3.01 BLUE RIDGE 2.88 PARIS - COX FIELD 2.73 DENTON 2.19 TEXARKANA 10 SW 2.11 THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...IS EXPECTED. AS LARGE PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST TEN DAYS OR SO...SOILS ARE SATURATED AND RIVERS ARE IN HIGH FLOOD STAGES ALREADY. THUS...A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...RIVER FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING. THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AT 900 AM CST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT. TATE

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0054 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1132 PM EST WED FEB 28 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX, AR, NORTHERN MS, & TN CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 010431Z - 010901Z SUMMARY...A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-4" OVER SATURATED SOILS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AND/OR PROLONG FLASH FLOODING. DISCUSSION...A BROAD OVERRUNNING PATTERN HAS SET UP FROM NORTHEAST TX ACROSS AR AND EXTENDING INTO TN WITHIN A REGION OF OVERLAPPING 850 HPA, 750 HPA, AND 650 FRONTOGENESIS PER THE 18Z GFS GUIDANCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.7" ARE SEEN HERE PER GPS VALUES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED AS THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS A FETCH FROM OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW IS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOVE 2,000 FEET PER THE LITTLE ROCK AR VAD WIND PROFILE. WHILE MUCAPE VALUES OF 500+ J/KG ARE SEEN ACROSS NORTHEAST TX, PLACES FARTHER AFIELD ACROSS AR AND NORTHERN MS HAVE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSES. WHILE THESE VALUES ARE MEAGER, SOIL CONDITIONS OVER A VAST PORTION OF THE AREA ARE SATURATED DUE TO RAINFALL BEING 300-700% OF NORMAL OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS, WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURES ACROSS CENTRAL AR, PATCHES OF NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK. EVEN WITH THIS LITTLE INSTABILITY, HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 0.5" ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD COMPROMISE SATURATED SOILS. THREE HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE PRACTICALLY ZERO ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AR AND ARE LOW FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS MUCH OF TN. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-4" OVER THE MOST SENSITIVE AREA IN AR WITH LOWER, THOUGH STILL THREATENING, AMOUNTS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL TN. FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY.

xcessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1016 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018 VALID 15Z Wed Feb 28 2018 - 12Z Thu Mar 01 2018 MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW OTH 35 W SXT 20 E CEC 35 ENE ACV 10 ENE ACV 35 SSE ACV 45 N UKI 15 ENE UKI STS 50 WSW STS. MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE LEX 20 ENE JKL 20 SSE MKJ 15 ESE VUJ 30 N CAE AHN 10 SSE GAD 25 N TCL 30 SSW GWO 10 NW OCH 25 WNW LHB BMQ 25 WNW 6R9 30 SW BWD 15 WNW SEP LUD 35 E AQR 35 E FSM 15 NW ARG 15 SSW CIR 15 SE OWB 30 N LOU 50 NE LEX. SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N DEQ 10 W JBR 50 SSE PAH 35 NE MQY 20 N OQT 35 SSE 1A6 AVL GSP GVL 10 SSW 3A1 40 E GWO 40 S ELD 25 ESE PWG 25 SSE 7F9 15 E SEP 10 NNE TKI 35 N LBR 35 N DEQ. MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE DEQ 20 S M19 35 ENE MKL 25 SW CSV 1A5 25 NNE 47A 20 ESE HSV 25 NNE GWO 10 S 4F4 25 W TYR SLR 30 NE DEQ. ...Upgrade to High Risk for parts of OK/TX/AR/LA/MS/TN... ...Southern Plains through the Southeast States... WPC coordinated with local offices to upgrade a portion of the Moderate Risk area to High Risk. We are concerned at the consistency among recent HRRR runs, in tandem with some of the better performing hi-res models (NSSL WRF, WRF-ARW2) and their 00z runs, all of which point to areal average 3 to 5 inches of rain along the axis that is best supported by GFS and RAP mass fields. The RAP indicates persistent 925-850mb convergence setting up from northeast Texas across southern/central Arkansas into western Tennessee during the late afternoon and evening hours as upstream height falls impinge on the edge of rich Gulf moisture / ahead of an advancing Pacific cold front. Deep west to southwesterly flow affords the opportunity for cell training, very likely leading to embedded amounts greater than 5 inches, especially owing to sizable CAPE and PW values spiking above 1.50 inches in the pre-convective environment / at least 3 standard deviations above the late February climatology. Given antecedent rainfall, 5 to 10 inches in much of this area over the past week, there will be a very high percentage of surface runoff. Forecast models produce peak hourly rain rates approaching 2 inches per hour, which may lead to damaging and life-threatening flash flooding given the saturated pre-conditions on the ground. Very large Slight and Moderate risk areas remain in place extending back westward into north Texas, where the event will initiate this afternoon, and extending farther east, where antecedent conditions are not quite so wet, but where heavy rain rates may exceed flash flood guidance over the southeast states and southern Appalachians through tonight.

Oopps..misunderstood the question until i re-read it just now :(Thought you were talking about back to back to back Nina's with neutral/Nino in between.AFew... gave you the answer

Probably need to watch the Mid month possibly.Trough being shown right now going through E/Asia that could possibly pump up the SER again.Plus the MJO is leaving Africa and headed into the IO. The dashboard also has been showing the last several days this would be the time frame where severe season gets into another gear http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/CFS_Dashboard/

Not on the ONI,there never has been

This week's

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 http://www.weather.gov/pah/2018_Feb24_EventSummary

ay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTS TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the southern Plains Saturday morning and shift northeastward towards the Ohio Valley through Saturday night. Several of these storms will likely be severe, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being the primary threat. A few instances of large hail will be possible as well. ...Synopsis... Within a cyclonic-flow regime across the western US, a robust shortwave trough will eject northeast across the central Plains, while acquiring a negative tilt as it approaches the upper Midwest. In response, mid-level heights will fall over much of the Plains and Mississippi Valley through the day. The surface pattern will feature a deepening low lifting north from the Mississippi Valley towards the upper Great Lakes. Trailing to its south, a cold front will accelerate eastward towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, while the preceding warm sector advances northward from the Mid-South to portions of southern Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. ...Arklatex to the Ohio Valley... As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues northeast towards the upper Midwest, a strong low-level jet is forecast to organize across the Arklatex through the mid-day hours, before strengthening and translating northeast towards the Ohio Valley through the overnight hours. In conjunction with this evolution, the surface warm sector (characterized by dew points in the lower/mid 60s along its northern fringes) will stream northward, reaching areas from southeastern Missouri to southern Indiana through the period. South of the warm front, despite little/modest low-level heating and related buoyancy, favorably moist low levels should support upwards of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across parts of the Mid-South by afternoon, with values decreasing to 200-400 J/kg across the Ohio Valley. Countering these lower values of buoyancy, a strong kinematic profile will evolve across much of the region, especially from northern Arkansas to the lower Ohio Valley. Within this region, 925-850mb flow around 60-70 kt will contribute to sizable values of storm-relative helicity through the evening hours. In turn, as a narrow band of convection organizes from the Arklatex to the Ozarks through the day, shear profiles should encourage several bowing/LEWP structures, with embedded supercells possible. Furthermore, forecast soundings and high-res guidance depict a considerable component of low-level shear perpendicular to several bowing segments, enhancing the potential for tornadoes -- a few of which could be strong -- during the afternoon and evening hours. These cells will then race towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the evening and overnight. Moist adiabatic low-level profiles, while not conducive for high values of buoyancy, may still prove favorable for a few swaths of damaging winds (with an attendant line-embedded tornado threat), as any low-level rotating elements will enhance upward vertical motion and convective intensity. Outside of the main band of convection, although forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong earlier in the day, an isolated discrete supercell or two may form across the Mid-South within warm/moist low-level confluence Saturday afternoon. Favorable storm-relative helicity and effective shear would support a conditional damaging wind and tornado threat during this time frame as well.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-northeastward on Saturday from parts of northeast Texas into the lower to mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Tornadoes, wind damage and hail will be possible with the more intense storms. ...Arklatex/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley... An upper-level trough will move from the Rockies into the Great Plains on Saturday. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will be in place at the start of the period from East Texas extending northeastward into southern parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. Elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing in the vicinity of Dallas/Fort Worth around 12Z. This convection is forecast to expand in coverage, moving eastward into the Arklatex where a 40 to 60 kt low-level jet will strengthen. As surface temperatures warm during the day, the convection is forecast to gradually become surface-based. A cluster of storms should become organized as it moves east-northeastward from far northeast Texas across southern and eastern Arkansas during the afternoon. This activity should eventually affect northwest Mississippi, western Tennessee and far western Kentucky by evening. Ahead of the system moving into the Great Plains, a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet will translate east-northeastward from the southern Plains into the Ozarks. This feature will create strong deep-layer shear profiles favorable for severe storms along the southeastern periphery of the mid-level jet. Strong lift and 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 kt range, evident on forecast soundings, will support supercell development. Supercells that interact with the western edge of the low-level jet from far northeast Texas into southern and central Arkansas will have tornado potential. NAM forecast soundings across southern Arkansas at 21Z on Saturday show 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 300 m2/s2 which should be favorable for a few strong tornadoes. Supercells and the stronger multicells embedded in the cluster should also be associated with wind damage and hail. The wind damage threat could increase as the cluster transitions into a line segment, moving eastward from eastern Arkansas into northwest Mississippi, western Tennessee and far western Kentucky by Saturday evening.

2018 February Quick Look Published: February 19, 2018 A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N) Use the navigation menu on the right to navigate to the different forecast sections In mid-February 2018, the tropical Pacific reflected La Niña conditions, with SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific in the range of weak to moderate La Niña and most key atmospheric variables showing patterns suggestive of La Niña conditions. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for La Niña continuing through at least early spring, followed by a likely return to neutral conditions around mid-spring. Support for this scenario is provided by the latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models.

Jamstec wants to kill Nina by summer,UKMet Mean,not so much

SOI finally got out of negative today where it's been sitting all month and sits at +14 today.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday from a portion of northeast Texas through the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. ...Northeast TX into the lower Mississippi Tennessee and Ohio Valleys... A significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the central Plains and middle to upper MS Valley region Saturday and Saturday night while taking on a negative tilt. In response to forcing accompanying this feature, a surface low initially over the southern Plains will deepen as it develops northeast through the middle MS Valley, eventually reaching the Great Lakes toward the end of the period. Warm front extending east from the surface low will move northward, reaching the OH Valley Saturday night. A cold front initially across west TX will advance through the Southern Plains and middle to lower MS Valley during the day reaching the OH and TN Valleys Saturday night. A strengthening low-level jet resulting from the deepening cyclone will transport richer gulf moisture northward with low 60s F dewpoints as far as the OH Valley and mid to upper 60s from east TX to the lower MS Valley. However, instability will probably remain marginal due to widespread clouds and modest lapse rates with MLCAPE likely to remain below 1000 J/kg over most of the warm sector. A forced line of potentially strong to severe storms should evolve in vicinity of cold front initially over north central or northeast TX into southeast OK during the day. Activity will subsequently move into the lower MS, TN and OH Valley regions as the low-level jet strengthens to 60+ kt and shifts northeast through moistening warm sector. Vertical shear and overall character of wind profiles will be more than adequate for organized severe storms, with potential for LEWP, bowing segments and a few embedded supercells capable of damaging wind and a few tornadoes. An upgrade to higher probabilities might be needed in later outlooks once uncertainties regarding the thermodynamic environment have been mitigated.

SIGTOR showing 45% out in parts of the Ms and Ark,30% in parts of the Western Valley,Saturday.The GFS was slightly faster tonight.The VBV that Jeff talked about above is not near as bad today as it's been showing.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210956 SPC AC 210956 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the central Plains and middle MS Valley region (Day 4) Saturday and Saturday night. Some deamplification is expected, but the trough will take on a more negative tilt as it approaches the middle MS Valley. GFS is still the stronger solution with deeper cyclogenesis and suggests potential for a slightly more robust severe threat. In either case a forced line of potentially strong to severe storms might evolve in vicinity of cold front initially over northeast TX, before spreading into the lower MS and TN Valley regions as the low-level jet strengthens and shifts northeast through moistening warm sector. While vertical shear and overall character of the wind profiles should be more than adequate for organized severe storms, primary limiting factor appears to be a marginal thermodynamic environment given likelihood of widespread clouds and weak lapse rates. Some severe threat might linger into Sunday (day 5) over a portion of the Middle Atlantic, but confidence is not high enough at this time to introduce a categorical area. Overall severe potential should remain low day 6 into day 7 as a cold front settles into the northern Gulf coastal area.

Models can't get along.Euro was about 6 hrs slower and the GFS much stronger on the 0Z run, but , the GFS did close the gap on the 6Z run.Euro might be over doing the instabilities which it can tend to do at this time. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that a significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the central Plains and middle MS Valley region (Day 5) Saturday and Saturday night. Some deamplification of this feature is expected, but model differences persist. GFS maintains a more amplified trough with a deeper surface low suggesting the potential for a greater severe threat compared to ECMWF, UKMET and the Canadian. In either case a few severe storms might evolve in vicinity of frontal zone from east TX into the lower MS and TN Valley region as the low-level jet strengthens and shifts northeast in response to the approaching shortwave trough. Storms may be ongoing along baroclinic zone over a portion of this region, with potential to intensify within zone of modest destabilization and forcing associated with the migrating low-level jet. Limiting factors are likelihood of widespread clouds and tendency for the approaching shortwave trough to weaken with deeper forcing likely remaining northwest of warm sector. Some severe threat might linger into day 6, but overall potential should decrease later day 6 into day 7 as a cold front moves into the northern Gulf coast area. ..Dial.. 02/20/2018

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Better agreement/consistency is evident at this time with respect to various medium-range model runs through a majority of the day 4-8 period, as compared to 24 hours prior. Models in general depict that a major short-wave trough -- digging across California and the Great Basin day 4 (Thursday) will eject east across the Desert Southwest/southern Rockies day 5, and then the central and southern Plains day 6 (Saturday). While this feature is progged to weaken/deamplify with time due to persistence of southeastern U.S. ridging, surface lee cyclogenesis is expected over the southern High Plains early in the day which will deepen/shift quickly east-northeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest overnight. Ahead of this system, low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico should prove sufficient for at least some warm-sector CAPE development which -- combined with what should be a favorable background lower- and middle-tropospheric wind field -- suggests that some severe weather risk may evolve Saturday. While degree of instability may limit risk to some degree, ample evidence exists to suggest initial introduction of 15% severe weather probability from the Arklatex vicinity east across parts of the lower Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valleys. As the weakening upper system shifts quickly east-northeast across the lower Great Lakes region day 7 (Sunday), expect the trailing surface front to weaken and become oriented increasingly west-to-east across the Gulf Coast region, suggestive of diminished severe potential. In addition, model differences increasing through the end of the period result in reduced confidence with respect to the convective forecast through early next week.

Next Sunday the Euro and the Control for that matter pumps up the ridge in the east and has a slower progressive cold front of almost a day via the GFS.Not sure which is right but by the pattern we are in right now the Euro could be right.But the Euro and Control both show what could be a strong shortwave that effects the Valley next Sunday for some potential severe weather.The GFS tho is showing a shortwave further south Sat with it's progressive look,either way we could be seeing our first severe thunderstorms of the year upcoming.We're getting into Climo time into the Valley

We'll see.The thermocline shows some warm waters around the IDL east and west,though yes cooler anoms further to the east of the IDL.The MJO could be into the IO into March then going into the West Pac so we'll see what happens upcoming

Comparing it to last month

I'm not saying it's dead,but it looks ragged right now.

Nina looks to be on life support right now