jaxjagman

Looking around Mid Tn around 3 tomorrow afternoon the GFS shows the the TT's around 58 and the Showalter -4 to -5 with steep lapse rates 8.0, bulk shear around 80kts Edit:This would be just west of Nashville

SREF has a small 45% marker in N/Alabama,it backed down away from Nashville as well as the last NAM while the GFS is now showing more instability to the Ky border

That's a cool pic Stove

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind and hail are expected across parts of Middle Tennessee, much of northern Alabama, and northwest Georgia. A strong tornado or two is possible during the late afternoon. Severe wind is also possible into northern Florida. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move quickly from AR Monday morning to the TN Valley by 00Z Tuesday, with a slight deamplification. Wind profiles will increase throughout the day, with cooling aloft overspreading KY, TN, and northern AL/GA. At the surface, low pressure will move from OK across TN, with a cold front extending from Middle TN across central MS by 00Z Tuesday. Ahead of the front, dewpoints into the lower 60s F will reach as far north as TN, with mid 60s F over AL and GA. To the east, a warm front will lift across northern AL and GA during the day, allowing for destabilization. Severe thunderstorms are likely near the surface low and along the cold front, with the primary threat area from Middle TN into northern AL and northwest GA during the afternoon. ...Middle TN into northern AL and northwest GA... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning from TN into northern GA associated with warm advection near the warm front. This activity should lift north, allowing for heating farther upstream across western TN and MS. If early day storms are more widespread than expected, this could have an impact on the position of the main threat area later in the day. A minor capping inversion will be present around 850 mb according to forecast soundings. This will keep the warm sector free of additional precipitation contamination. Lapse rates aloft will steepen as the shortwave trough approaches, and wind profiles will strengthen creating a favorable setup for tornadic supercells. The area of strongest lift, shear and instability will exist over a relatively limited in area, but supercells that do occur will have significant tornado potential, along with large hail. The eastern extent will be limited by a wedge of cooler air from eastern TN across northern GA. Storm density will likely decrease across north central AL, farther away from the main area of lift, but a conditional threat of supercells capable of a tornado or two and large hail will exist. This threat may spread across eastern AL into western GA during the evening, as warmer air spreads east resulting in surface based instability. ...Fl Panhandle into southern GA... Although well removed from the shortwave trough to the north, a broad belt of strong flow aloft will encompass the Southeast, with deep-layer shear profiles favorable for severe storms. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will result in favorable thermodynamics to support strong to severe storms. Storms are expected to form over the FL Panhandle into northern FL by early to mid afternoon, spreading into southern GA. Although low-level shear is not particularly strong, it may be sufficient to support a tornado or two, with the primary risk being damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 03/18/2018

The last run of the GFS shows some better capes,even over 1k in Mid Tn Monday afternoon.If you want to believe the NAM it shows capes of around 3k and a PDS around Nashville

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Numerical models are in relatively good agreement with the movement of a shortwave trough from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley on Monday, with a surface low moving from AR into TN during the day or evening. The ECMWF is faster/farther east with the low than the GFS, which lends uncertainty. However, the risk area can be adjusted in later outlooks. On Monday Day 4, a cold front is forecast to stretch roughly from middle TN southward across MS by 00Z Tuesday, continuing eastward across AL and into GA by Tuesday morning. A warm front will also lift north across the region, stretching from northern AL into central GA at 00Z. Dewpoints in the 60s F and cool midlevel temperatures will result in around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, with strong deep-layer shear profiles supporting organized convection. Low-level shear will be maximized near the warm front, and forecast wind profiles do support supercells. Conditional on storm mode, a tornado threat may exist. The northern threat into TN will depend on instability, but otherwise the synoptic setup appears most favorable there. To the south, instability will be much greater and one or more clusters of storms are expected to spread across AL and GA with damaging winds likely given strong mean wind profiles. Beyond day 4, severe weather is not expected. ..Jewell.. 03/16/2018

No signs of a Nino by "JAS" by the IMME.

Feb. was close to normal for avg tornadoes

Looks like the potential for some good storms to fire up along the dry line in the Southern Plains with a severe drought on going

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Late-evening model guidance is gradually evolving toward a potentially more active convective pattern by the end of the medium-range period. Eastern US trough that will suppress Gulf air mass should shift east within a few days allowing higher-moisture-content air mass to begin advancing north into TX day4-5. Much of the lower latitudes are expected to moisten significantly into early next week. Threat of deep convection will begin increasing from the Arklatex into the TN Valley during the day5-6 time frame. However, timing of individual short waves will prove extremely difficult as ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/Canadian exhibit different solutions to the break down of the Plains ridge late in the week. While model differences will certainly extend into early next week, Plains ridge should progress into the MS Valley by day8. If this occurs there is some concern organized severe may ultimately materialize across the southern Plains/lower MS Valley. Will not introduce 15% severe probs given the uncertainty but this scenario will be monitored closely.

Signs of a good system towards the end of March

TNI today is the strongest we've seen in awhile -1.3 in 1+2 and -0.3 in region 4,this would be a +1 TNI

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Mar 09 2018 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 24 2018-Fri Apr 06 2018 The Week 3-4 this week is issued against the background of La Nina and an MJO event that continues to propagate eastward with a larger-than-forecast amplitude. Additionally, a high amplitude -AO/NAO event over the past one to two weeks is forecast to be nearer to normal heading into the Week 3-4 period. The recent OLR anomaly maps indicate a large-scale convective structure over the deep tropics that is consistent with La Nina, while the recent evolution of tropical 200-hPa velocity potential anomalies is consistent with the active MJO phase approaching the Maritime Continent, ostensibly resulting in constructive interference with the background ENSO state. Given the observed presence of anomalous tropical forcing mechanisms, statistical guidance that incorporates ENSO and MJO, along with long-term trends, is weighted heavily in both the temperature and precipitation outlooks. The dynamical model guidance varies quite a bit, with a very cold North America predicted by the ECMWF, and the CFS and JMA favoring a warmer solution across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The various models from the SubX suite tend to favor the ECMWF solution, but with large differences among them as well. Most dynamical models favor the continuation of positive height anomalies near and northwest of the Aleutians, with negative height anomalies stretching west-east over the Pacific near 30N. The ECMWF solution, however, reintensifies a -NAO signal over the northwest Atlantic, and its upper-level height pattern over North America appears well-teleconnected to that downstream center of action. The CFS maintains low-amplitude anomalous ridging over the east-central CONUS, more consistent with teleconnections upon the upstream centers of action and MJO forcing. Over Alaska the dynamical blend favors high probabilities of below-normal temperatures; in the official outlook these are tempered by long-term trends (including those related to sea ice extent adjacent to the western and northern Alaska). The temperature outlook consists of a subjective blend of the correlation-weighted, calibrated dynamical model blend and the multiple linear regression tool that inputs ENSO, MJO, and long-term trend time series. These forecast inputs are the most skillful over the past couple of years. These forecasts conflict over parts of the West and Northeast, where areas of EC are depicted. Given the manifestation of ENSO and MJO in important tropical variables (OLR and VP), it is not obvious that the dynamical guidance should be preferred. An objective blend of statistical and dynamical inputs is under development, and until that is ready a prudent course of action is to consider both on nearly equal footing given recent skill evaluations. The aforementioned approach to the temperature outlook is also taken for the precipitation outlook. The various dynamical guidance as well as statistical guidance are in good agreement on above-median rainfall over parts of the Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys, and to a lesser extent, the northern High Plains. Likewise there is good agreement for increased chances of below-median precipitation over the southwestern CONUS. Over the Northwest and northern California equal chances is depicted due to uncertainty with respect the longitudinal position of the mean trough axis; a slight westward (eastward) shift would favor above-(below-)median precipitation. Below-median precipitation is favored over parts of the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Eastern Seaboard. Dynamical model consensus is the strongest over the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes, while the statistical guidance is more robust over the Southeast coast. Sea surface temperatures are slightly above normal for most of the Hawaiian Islands, although below-normal SSTs are showing up just to the northeast. Anomalous troughing is favored to the west of the islands, supporting anomalous southerly flow. This troughing to the west also supports relatively high probabilities for above-normal precipitation across the entire island chain.

This was the same storm that also produced a F5 in the southern counties of Tn.In Lawrenceburg it went through the Amish country,don't know how no one died from that community. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_15–16,_1998

The NMME's show a weak to neutral Nina through spring.Then by the time ASO rolls around it's more or less a weak to neutral Nino with a couple models showing a moderate Nino

We'll see.I know i'm harping it,but signs are coming together

Last few days 1+2 has cooled back down.No telling where the MJO is going to be.CFS wants to reform it back into the IO towards the end of the month.

It's still there, but some what better signs but a day later than the earlier map,though it's not really that far off.Trough going through East Asia with a system going through China into the Yellow Sea.This would pump up the heights into China and Mongolia which should if it works out would pump up a +PNA ridge if it were to correlate right.Teleconnection would also support a +PNA ridge mid month,we'll see

March, 2-3 is the Anniversary outbreak of 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120302

That's pretty cool.