jaxjagman

Slight risk D6 into the Ozarks and portions of the MId South. We seem to be headed towards a strong NINO,down the road.These strong NINO'S can be hit or miss in a season.Back in 2023 in which the RONI could be compared to this year ATM we had 40 tornadoes in TN that year.With a couple outbreaks in late March,early Aprili and early Dec and more or less rogue tornadoes in the summer time.But east TN had the most tornadoes since 2012 that year

At the same time you can already notice a pattern change,you can actually see this in East Asia as the MJO goes into the WH into the IO,you see more troughs,we should see a wetter pattern as we get into the 3rd week of April upcoming and more than likely into May

That system today was definite a disappointment

These happen more often than people think they do and more like every 2-3 years from convective coupled Equatorial Rossby Waves,we even had one in 2022 during mainly a strong NINA

Oh it was brutal here trying to drive this morning,i thought something happened on I-65 but it was because of traffic lights being down from debris knocking them out,that was seemingly a nice microburst we saw here in Brentwood

Mesoscales seems to have whiffed.I do agree with you tho this was SPC and not OHX,in which OHX they will take the black eye.I dont understand myself why a STW wasnt issued.We had more or less breaks in the clouds in the afternoon which brought on more instability than what the models showed with diurnal heating,sure it happened later but not as sooner as it should have been.Its always a problem with models with a positive tilted troughs,they always can come in sooner than later,its what we seen yesterday

We havent seen this in quite some time,while the CFS can overdue the MJO for certain,its been fairly consistent,either way its gonna knock off that pesky Mid Atl ridge,we have some wiggle room anyways as we head into the 3rd week of April,the typhooon is another story tho,its recurving to far east offf of Japan and building heights from East China through the Sea of Japan,you're probably gonna see ridge building back in the east down the road, rather see the storm going though,Korea or for the matter China

Oh i agree with you,but at least we are seeing the tropical convection getting displaced in the upcoming days,we havent seen this in quite some time,which seems to be by a Rossby Wave in the EP and not WP

Maybe we'll get a big snow into our area this upcoming winter,Nino does fairly well with Moderate to strong Ninos,they always produce,but the winter in whole should be AN temps,typically Dec should be fairly warm.

LOL @ Jeff,you know i was thinking the same thing a couple days ago,that damn MS River,but its the SER like you said,convection into our parts stops west of the River,im still kinda surprised a good chunk of ARK is worse off than we are in TN with the drought Nothing eye popping the next week,some parts should flirt with record temps upcoming the next few days. But there is light at the end of the tunnel,a pattern change is upcoming seemingly ATM The MJO should strenghten into the WH as it looks like Rossby/Kelvin waves interact with each other to strenghten the MJO signal sorta speaking as it heads into Africa

There was a WB back into 2023 around the same time from a Rossby Wave.There was also another RW in Mid May JAMSTEC Mean shows the DMI rising into fall almost to +1.5 ATM,but when the DMI rises like this ,this is typical the norm you see more or less NINA the following year,least it's been like this the last several decades

2015? We had a ice storm that winter,severe was literally non-existent which that year proceeded into a strong NINO later in 2015. Who knows,snowstorm in Jan 2016?That was the most snow we got here in decades.Seems like the potential flooding of Pac air this winter upcoming,AN temps should be the main course

Think it could get active as we get into April for a bit.The problem with the MJO is the ERW in which caused twin cyclones and has caused social media hysteria like its never happened before from a ERW.But this is from the Coriolis effect,which makes storms on both sides of the equator and move east to west Its like living the Polar Vortex again since what,OVER decade ago?But this has happened since at least the dinosaur era and beyond ?..LOL I dunno,seems like to me the MJO has been back into Africa the last few days,its caused lots of deaths in that region and the MJO signal is getting totally destroyed by this ERW,could just as well be the transition into NINO

Some of these models especially the CFS has this for whatever reason are to amped when the Rossby Wave Train moves into the WP/MC.You dont seem to see these wind burst even pan out very well.The RMMS today seems to show this Rossby Wave further west than what they have been showing recently as some now show the MJO go back into the WP.It seems possible to me this Rossby Wave could strenghten the MJO signal into the Maritime/IO as we get into April