jaxjagman

Guess we can say Auburn got Freezed out yesterday

We seem to have a similar pattern as of last year to an extent as of the date today.Most of the models have been into a good agreement recently of the MJO but now are starting to distance themselves recently it seems.Should see what the MJO does upcoming.CFS other than timing right now looks the same AS 2024,posted up top.One difference right now should be the QBO as we was more in a de-amplified QBO but westerly to a amped Easterly.Think the last thing you want to see for a cold Nov is for the MJO to get into the WP,

Thinnk this fall has alot of similarties to last fall as we head into Dec,some teleconnections surley dont match ATM

Yeah but you have to read what the author wrote bro,hes talking about from 2008-present and gives a date Sept29 through Oct 5,hes actually right,hes just talking about a certain period to his credit

This winter or leading into at least has alot of characteristics of 2024,ENSO,PDO,etc., yeah some teleconnections wont match up mainly the QBO.Be interesting to see how this winter spawns out,seems more than likely a weak PV unlike last winter with a westerly QBO almost into COD sort of speaking Seems to me we probably see a wavy pattern this year with no great analog years.Even the MJO this time of year is similar to last or even possibly into the next few weeks,dunno,we'll see.But the ENSO is quite similar right now. The MJO pic is from last year

Could break the record high Sat around here ahead of the CF,possibly even some severe storms,we could use some rain again here,we've went into a lull lately once again with any liquid

For a Nina pattern the Gulf of Mexico has been dormant,other than TS Barry hitting the Bay of Campeche in late June there has been notta,that hasnt happened since 1991,You'd think we'd have an active S/Jet this winter,severe/cold,who knows

Seen that also today https://www.facebook.com/ChrisJustusWYFF4ChiefMeteorologist/posts/️-attention-snow-lovers-️the-european-seasonal-snow-forecast-is-out-and-while-we/1343397287154418/

PDO finally rose some what last month,it was the most negative this summer in July and August since 1854,record breaking months anyways,hopefully the shutdown dont last long so we can see the next update sooner than later https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

So many objectives to play with this winter.I keep seeing social media seemingly saying this is a slam dunk of 2010-2011,why? I mean you do have the early Siberian snowfall going into Oct which is a plus,BUT at the same time in 2010,had seemingly a strong westerly +QBO,in which would keep possibly the PV strong its what we seen last winter In California which is even more unusual during a Nina had record rainfall in Dec of 2010.Even the -NAO,wemt on record of being the strongest ever recorded since 1825 ?Not sure how records were recorded back then,im not that old..lol

Not really sure how anyone can really come up with a real good analog for this winter anymore.Like Carver mentioned above we have a easterly QBO unlike last year it was more westerly.The SST'S in East Asia are so warm into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan,and in August resulted in the warmest month of August ever in South Korea and Japan,it was the hottest in Japan ever since records were taken back into 1898

I dunno,dont shoot the messenger,but it seems to be more related to the ENSO,IN 1980 our subforum into NC and the east coast would be saying bring it on,maybe a coincidence,i have know clue,planetary waves can take weeks if not months to have effects in NA, but both of these years i stated above seem to be more of developing ELNino,not NINA with a SWE in the SP https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview

Think more study should be looked at.SSWE are rare to start with in the SP,since last year there never has been one since 2002,its even more rare last year there were two.But there is also seemingly some correlation with ELNino and LaNIna,in 1979 and the last SSWE in 2002,these were ELNINO years,.2003 winter had the great blizzard in the Mid Atlantic/NE,late JanBut i still think these planetary waves,Rossby,etc,etc in the NP would be hard to predict from what happens in the SP

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL115257 There were a couple last year,but i have no clue how it effects planetary waves between the NP and SP,that would be a question for our scientist

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt Enso is about similar this year as it was last year,to this date anyways