jaxjagman

Not trying to discount you,but when you have decent warm nose advecion with a STJ 30-50 kts into Tn,it really seems impossible to get snow into Tn,it really dont matter what side of the mountain you look at,this is a weak LP it forms where ever it forms,even the WAA looks worse into East Tn

Maybe your right,but even the NAM is showing a inverted trough with LP into the lower OV with the STJ around 30-40 kts,good luck with this for snow in Tn,sorry no model shows this will happen

Thats a inverted trough,its always the worse Nightmare into our forum

Looks to warm to me,if you really looks at the isobars this is an inverted trough and warm nose,you can then look at what the 850 shows,its definite a warm nose

In the long range i'd stick with what the JMA is showing with the MJO.The CFS has some bias with the tropical convection into the WP/MC from Rossby and Kelvin Waves,you can clearly see this once again,this causes contructive/destructive interference with the MJO signal

We got a unexpected dusting this morning

Just look at the red line,the GOM has been one of the warmest since the 1980's

Dont agree with this.This is more or less some hybrid weather pattern this winter,plus while it can happen the atmospheric river into the west is more Nino than NINA,you cant possibly say the west has been dry this winter,California is over 300% in some parts of abnormal QPFS

SSTS in the modern day era since summer has been well AN since summer,still be interesting to see what happens in the upcoming days

This map should have a better visualzation today

Possibly,its still warm into the GOM,be interesting to see how it cools the next few days

Could be,but if this was what the MJO showed in March of 2021, i'd be getting excited..lol

Made me go back and look at some analogs into 2021

Yeah but there top analog was1-25-2021 today,this was the Fultondale.Al EF3,this makes no sense to me

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/lake-erie-january-more-ice-23-years-9.7067884