jaxjagman

This should even kick off phoons once again,even tho this is 360 hrs out by the GFS from Rossby and plus Kelvin waves.

This looks like another Rossby Wave west of the IDL,while some RMMS are hinting the MJO could possibly go back into the WP,the MJO signal seemingly is getting destructive interference from this and is into the WH.I see the CFS is already showing another strong WWB but be carefulll looking at this or any models,that WWB last time wasnt as strong east of the IDL and was more or less picked up at times by the Rossby Wave train.

Yes the last few runs the GFS develops a cap in MID TN Into the east,but we'll see soon enough how strong that cap actually is as the, LLJ kicks something like 35-45 kts,that cap might not materialize as shown.Might be picking shit from cherry blossoms other wise with severe..lol On the other hand the last few runs could be a better severe threat even early Wed,maybe nocturnal if the shortwave around the MO/Valley is real what the Euro is showing

More like the whole state.TN leads leads the nation with 46% being nocturnal tornadoes

Severe is to hard to be predict/modeled than snow.We even saw this in our parts last week where Saturday was being modeled as more severe than Thursday even a couple days before,but it ended up opposite Nashville disco this morning even mentioned Social Media.It's going wild.Even one person bringing up 2011 that have many,.many followers,you shouldnt even bring up that word,2011, this far out.

You guys have had a good severe season.Last year we was off to a great start until the strong blocking happened into the Aluetians and Bearing Sea,this typically pulls the jet max further north sorta speaking and our severe went dormant which the OV got quite active.Gensini has a good paper written about tropical forcing with Nino compared to NINA,Im starting to think thatall this tropical forcing into the WP earlier mainly from Rossby Waves is playing a part,but this at least seems to changing in which seemingly a CCKW and a Rossby Wave into the East Pac upcomign for a change

Maybe we can finally get some severe weather and even for that matter,just rain into the Tn Valley finally,its been realitive dead here since the new year,only 3 confirmed tornadoes in TN

Slight risk D6 into the Ozarks and portions of the MId South. We seem to be headed towards a strong NINO,down the road.These strong NINO'S can be hit or miss in a season.Back in 2023 in which the RONI could be compared to this year ATM we had 40 tornadoes in TN that year.With a couple outbreaks in late March,early Aprili and early Dec and more or less rogue tornadoes in the summer time.But east TN had the most tornadoes since 2012 that year

At the same time you can already notice a pattern change,you can actually see this in East Asia as the MJO goes into the WH into the IO,you see more troughs,we should see a wetter pattern as we get into the 3rd week of April upcoming and more than likely into May

That system today was definite a disappointment

These happen more often than people think they do and more like every 2-3 years from convective coupled Equatorial Rossby Waves,we even had one in 2022 during mainly a strong NINA

Oh it was brutal here trying to drive this morning,i thought something happened on I-65 but it was because of traffic lights being down from debris knocking them out,that was seemingly a nice microburst we saw here in Brentwood

Mesoscales seems to have whiffed.I do agree with you tho this was SPC and not OHX,in which OHX they will take the black eye.I dont understand myself why a STW wasnt issued.We had more or less breaks in the clouds in the afternoon which brought on more instability than what the models showed with diurnal heating,sure it happened later but not as sooner as it should have been.Its always a problem with models with a positive tilted troughs,they always can come in sooner than later,its what we seen yesterday

We havent seen this in quite some time,while the CFS can overdue the MJO for certain,its been fairly consistent,either way its gonna knock off that pesky Mid Atl ridge,we have some wiggle room anyways as we head into the 3rd week of April,the typhooon is another story tho,its recurving to far east offf of Japan and building heights from East China through the Sea of Japan,you're probably gonna see ridge building back in the east down the road, rather see the storm going though,Korea or for the matter China

Oh i agree with you,but at least we are seeing the tropical convection getting displaced in the upcoming days,we havent seen this in quite some time,which seems to be by a Rossby Wave in the EP and not WP