dendrite

Nice hit for E NH, E MA, and ME though.

Euro caves quite a bit.

This thing is still east of the Delmarva and it's getting written off. All I'm saying. It's heading due north right now. Not northeast.

I'm only posting what the GFS is showing. I'm not saying I buy it or the RGEM. I can't imagine the Euro busting that badly in 1 run at T minus 0. I'm enjoying the model mayhem...it keeps met jobs.

b**ch and whine whether its cold and dry or a blizzard. I think I need a break. It's no fun

Easy to say when you're in one of the perfect spots for this. Many on here were under 24-36" and are in danger of getting the rug pulled out under them. lol

Hey kids...so you wanna be a meteorologist?

Still a good hit for ENE, but my condolences to WNE.

I think the euro is going to cave harder than we think tonight.

GFS going pretty far east from 18z.

Does Kev get his RGEM wish? lol

Ray FTW

You have a map for the rest of the region?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html

TTN went from >2.00" QPF to 0.25" on the 4km NAM. Ouch.

NYC already has up to 6" from earlier today, so another 12" would bring some to 18" by itself, and that's doable with 12-1 ratios and 1" liquid. Obviously anywhere east of there is still in for a crushing regardless. 

Well aware. NYC was in that meso band for awhile. I'm talking more south of the city into E NJ.

I mean it's a region wide blizzard.  NYC is on the fence, LI gets crushed, CT, MA, RI, Boston, PVD, Portsmouth.  The SW edge is a toss up...but everywhere else it's stay the course...feet of snow.

Horrible run-to-run consistency. Every run crushes CT/S NH/MA/RI, but those on the edge are getting flip flopped between 2ft and 6-10".

lol...the model is so horrible. Nice hit here, but does it even matter?

There is literally no point yet. RPM looks clueless. Honestly, euro looks pretty good so far with its 12z run.

Make that .6F, now 30.3F

Obs thread though James.

22z HRRR comes west a bit. Analyzing these hourly models blows.

Definitely beginning to see the pivot taking place, radar is also filling in.  I am still surprised by the fact that the returns down there are that far east of the NJ shoreline at this stage.  I anticipated the back edge of the broken precip would have started essentially right on the beaches per the Euro.  We're 40 minutes from verification -  again rough glance but it all looks a little east to me and not fast enough up near the Cape with this first band.

LGA 0.20"

EWR 0.12"

JFK 0.11"

Of course some of that is a meso weenie band.

Can't imagine this verifying. From 5pm onwards

 

22z RAP not looking as favorable for NYC as 21z did.

GFS was already wrong for NYC. NYC reporting 4.5" as of 5:00

I think the RGEM is too far east also...but I think the Euro might be too far west by a little...I am still envisioning some sort of compromise.

I think Kev may have gottenmore from the NAM...lol

I can't buy the 12z euro op/ens losing that badly to the 18z RGEM. I've tossed the RGEM.

Thanks Dendrite

And thanks to you and Wow and Eell keeping this running

EPS mean for the weens. I'm pulling this in a few mins.

Nice to see the 4k NAM cave towards it's lower res brother. Night and day from 12z.