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dendrite

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Everything posted by dendrite

  1. dendrite
    Yeah notsogood up here, but I think that’s where I’m leaning. A PSF-ASH band, maybe subby for Ray, and then back into better forcing further south.
  2. dendrite
  3. dendrite
    At least we get the SNE weenies stressing a little bit. They had been having it way too easy with this system. I still expect something closer to the euro/gfs16 to verify. But we shall see.
  4. dendrite
    Chook Shellacker
  5. dendrite
    It’s just the NAM. It always jacks me at 48hr with a deform band and then sanity prevails and it ends up crushing MHT/ASH/LWM.
  6. dendrite
    Dendy approved
  7. dendrite
  8. dendrite
    How much for Fiji?
  9. dendrite
    The chickens would not like that deformation.
  10. dendrite
    Sure. It does on all of the models. That confluences just shears it apart with time.
  11. dendrite
    Night and day this run
  12. dendrite
    ICON and RGEM look good for S NH...especially ASH eastward. Maybe Dom can melt his way to double digits. Still just Vostok sand up here.
  13. dendrite
    Jack is probably just north of that H7 circulation track
  14. dendrite
    Mass crushed.
  15. dendrite
    The problem is the downstream confluence, but if you get rid of these pieces it’s congrats Stowe.
  16. dendrite
    Hard to imagine this not looking more like 12z with how much more amplified it is, but despite the confluence backing off a hair it’s still stubborn.
  17. dendrite
  18. dendrite
    PF will be posting one of them giving him the jack shortly.
  19. dendrite
    A lot of weenie spread to the west there, but SREFs.
  20. dendrite
    The airmass coming in is frigid. Skin sfc will be plenty cold.
  21. dendrite
    North of the deform it'll be crap ratios...especially with dry air advecting into the low levels. Some of the models have some mid/upper level lift coming through on the tail end as the upper level system swings through so maybe we can do 1--3" of fluff in a best case scenario. I wouldn't totally rule out the deformation axis being near you either although odds favor it being more south.
  22. dendrite
    Even the NAVGEM is deforming from W MA to LWM.
  23. dendrite
    Looks like they're following strong convection.
  24. dendrite
    idk...those 3 lows are all weak sauce and halfway to Bermuda.
  25. dendrite
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