SACRUS

29 / 12 off a low of 22. First 40s since Jan 3rd and near normal. Swing and a miss south Saturday. Near normal through the 13th then very cold 14 - 18th and dry ahead of what could be mix or mix to rain in the well advertised Jan 19 - 21 system. Beyond there to close the month overall colder than normal.

Gusting to 32 here JFK: 44 LGA: 41 EWR: 35

Cold period daily dep: Jan 4 EWR: 36 / 28 (-2) NYC: 33 / 28 (-4) LGA: 34 / 29 (-4) JFK: 37 / 30 (0 E) -------------------------------------------------- Jan 5: EWR: 36 / 28 (-2) NYC: 33 / 28 (-4) LGA: 34 / 28 (-4) JFK: 37 / 29 (-1) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan 6: EWR: 31 / 22 (-6) NYC: 30 / 22 (-8) LGA: 33 / 23 (-7) JFK: 33 / 24 (-5) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan 7 EWR: 35 / 19 (-6) NYC: 33 / 19 (-8) LGA: 34 / 20 (-8) JFK: 36 / 20 (-6) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Jan 8 EWR: 32 / 22 (-6) NYC: 30 / 23 (-7) LGA: 31 / 24 (-7) JFK: 33 / 24 (-4) ---------------------------- May get to or above normal Fri (10)

Records: Highs: EWR: 67 (1998) NYC: 64 (2008) LGA: 66 (2008) JFK: 65 (2008) Lows: EWR: 1 (1968) NYC: -1 (1968) LGA: 1 (1968) JFK: 0 (1968) cold week Historical: 1875 - The temperature at Cheyenne, WY, dipped to an all-time record cold reading of -38 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1880: A rapidly deepening low-pressure system produced powerful winds along the Pacific Northwest coast. While wind measurements were limited, there were widespread reports of wind damage. 1888 - Severe cold gripped much of the western U.S. At Portland OR the Columbia River was frozen for two weeks, and in southern California temperatures dipped below freezing in some of the citrus growing areas. (David Ludlum) 1976 - Lake effect snow squalls buried the town of Adams NY under 68 inches of snow. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes Region. Heavier totals included 9 inches at Sun City KS, 7 inches at Columbia MO, 11 inches at Terre Haute IN, and up to 10 inches in the southern suburbs of Chicago IL. (National Weather Summary) ( Storm Data) 1988 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced ten inches of snow at Boston MA, and 14 inches at Worcester MA. A winter storm in the northwestern U.S. produced a foot of snow in three hours at McCall ID. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Strong winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the Rockies in Colorado. Winds gusted to 113 mph at the Air Force Academy near Colorado Springs, and reached 115 mph at Boulder. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A third storm in four days hit the Pacific Northwest. Winds in Oregon gusted above 100 mph at Netarts and at Oceanside. Up to 8.16 inches of rain was reported around Seaside OR, and the total of 4.53 inches of rain at Astoria OR was a record for the date. Twelve cities in the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 70 degrees at Cedar City UT was a record for January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2015: The halo picture below was taken by Texan Joshua Thomas in Red River, New Mexico.

24 / 6 off a low of 18 here. Winds whipping. Sat miss opens way to a mainly dry and overall colder next 7 days. Beyond there the next system to watch in the 19 - 21 period could yield the proverbial kick in the gut, with rain - wait out there to tell. Overnight data was a bit less intense with the cold in the post Jan 21 period, cold with the strongest north and west.

SW vis loop - fires evident in and near LA https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=psw&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12&dim=1

Peak gusts so far (today) / looks a bit stronger Thursday LGA: 46 MPH EWR: 41 MPH JFK: 39 MPH

Gusts again near or above 40 MPG at the major airports

Once past Saturday, aside from possible light snow showers or flurries, the next system to watch is Jan 19 / 21 period. Untill then the 7 day precip forecast is dry north of VA. Can see what could be (have been) the storm offshore.

No warmup, let alone any sustained warmup on the horizon. These types of cold patterns seem to lock in or settle in (overall) for 45 - 60 days (overall) So with that guess if you count early Jan as the staring point, it would be later in towards mid/late Feb. Time will tell. Chilly into the deep south and Gulf states

Ill have to ding into these events (believe it was multiple event/day). More focussed in N-NJ and S-NE

the 22/23 - 30th are looking very cold on the latest guidance to add to those colder dept's.

more on the Jan 8, 1988(southern) NJ snowstorm https://www.upi.com/Archives/1988/01/08/A-winter-snowstorm-that-smothered-the-Plains-and-the/6715668680040/

Jan 4 EWR: 36 / 28 (-2) NYC: 33 / 28 (-4) LGA: 34 / 29 (-4) JFK: 37 / 30 (0 E) -------------------------------------------------- Jan 5: EWR: 36 / 28 (-2) NYC: 33 / 28 (-4) LGA: 34 / 28 (-4) JFK: 37 / 29 (-1) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan 6: EWR: 31 / 22 (-6) NYC: 30 / 22 (-8) LGA: 33 / 23 (-7) JFK: 33 / 24 (-5) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan 7 EWR: 35 / 19 (-6) NYC: 33 / 19 (-8) LGA: 34 / 20 (-8) JFK: 36 / 20 (-6) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Records: Highs: EWR: 70 (1998) NYC: 65 (1998) LGA: 64 (2008) JFK: 58 (1949) Lows: EWR: 3 (1970) NYC: 2 (1968) LGA: 3 (1968) JFK: 1 (1968) Historical: 1953 - A severe icestorm in the northeastern U.S. produced up to four inches of ice in Pennsylvania, and two to three inches in southeastern New York State. In southern New England the ice coated a layer of snow up to 20 inches deep. The storm resulted in 31 deaths and 2.5 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1973 - A severe icestorm struck Atlanta GA. The storm paralyzed the city closing schools and businesses, and damage from the storm was estimated at 25 million dollars. One to four inches of ice coated northern Georgia leaving 300,000 persons without electricity for up to a week. Between 7 PM and 9 PM on the 7th, 2.27 inches (liquid content) of freezing rain, sleet and snow coated Atlanta, as the temperature hovered at 32 degrees. (7th-8th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1973: Georgia's worst ice storm since 1935 occurred from the 7th through the 8th. Freezing rain and sleet began during the early morning hours on Sunday the 7th and ended in most areas on Monday. Total damage was estimated at well over $25 million. The electric power companies suffered losses estimated at $5 million, and telephone companies had another $2 million in damages. Some schools were closed for more than a week. 1987 - A winter storm moving out of the Southern Rockies into the Central Plains Region produced 14 inches of snow at Red River NM, and 17 inches in the Wolf Creek ski area of Colorado. Wichita KS was blanketed with seven inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the northeastern U.S., with up to ten inches reported in southern New Jersey. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Strong northwesterly winds and bitterly cold temperatures prevailed in the north central U.S. Winds in the Great Lakes Region gusted to 58 mph at Chicago IL, and reached 63 mph at Niagara Falls NY. Squalls in western New York State produced 20 inches of snow at Barnes Corners and Lowville. Snow squalls in Upper Michigan produced 26 inches around Keweenaw. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - High winds plagued the northwestern U.S., with the state of Oregon hardest hit. Two persons were killed in Oregon, and nine others were injured, and the high winds downed fifty-five million board feet of timber, valued at more than twenty million dollars. Winds gusted to 90 mph near Pinehurst ID, and wind gusts reached 96 mph at Stevenson WA. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2019: An unusual January tornado impacted Cortland, Ohio, during the mid-morning hours. The EF-1 tornado developed northeast of Champion Township in Trumbull County and moved east. The tornado brought down numerous trees and wires along the 4.5-mile path.

25 / 7 winds a bit calmer for now. Cold / windy highs near or sub 30 tomorrow lows teens. Precip stays focused south of DC this Saturday, light stuff this way. Cold overall the next 7 - 10 days with coldest days looking 9th, 15-16 so far. Perhaps stronger reinforcing cold rebuilding by the last week of the month, which can offer the next opportunity for some more meaningful snows and even colder departures solidifying a deep negative monthly departure - hope there is some snow to show for the cold.

GFS last 3 runs track shift SE each one

Gusts to 40 at EWR and 46 at LGA

Gusting to 31 here now WNW

Cold period daily Jan 4 EWR: 36 / 28 (-2) NYC: 33 / 28 (-4) LGA: 34 / 29 (-4) JFK: 37 / 30 (0 E) -------------------------------------------------- Jan 5: EWR: 36 / 28 (-2) NYC: 33 / 28 (-4) LGA: 34 / 28 (-4) JFK: 37 / 29 (-1) - ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan 6: EWR: 31 / 22 (-6) NYC: 30 / 22 (-8) LGA: 33 / 23 (-7) JFK: 33 / 24 (-5)

2022 Jan 7 : NYC: 5.8 inches of snow EWR: 5.2" LGA: 9.7" JFK: 6.2"

Records: Highs: EWR: 64 (2012) NYC: 64 (1907) LGA: 62 (2012) JFK: 61 (2012) Lows: EWR: 3 (2014) NYC: 4 (2014) LGA: 4 (2014) JFK: 4 (2018) Historical: 1873 - A blizzard raged across the Great Plains. Many pioneers, unprepared for the cold and snow, perished in southwest Minnesota and northwestern Iowa. (David Ludlum) 1971 - The temperature at Hawley Lake, located southeast of McNary, AZ, plunged to 40 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A storm in the southwestern U.S. produced 30 inches of snow north of Zion National Park in southern Utah, with 18 inches reported at Cedar Canyon UT. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A winter storm in the southeastern U.S. produced 27 inches of snow in the Bad Creek area of South Carolina, and claimed the lives of two million chickens in Alabama. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A tornado in southern Illinois obliterated half the community of Allendale, injuring fifty perons and causing more than five million dollars damage, while thunderstorm winds gusting higher than 100 mph caused ten million dollars damage at Franklin KY. Twenty-five cities, from the Gulf coast to Michigan, reported record high temperatures for the date. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A rapidly intensifying low pressure system and a vigorous cold front brought heavy rain and high winds to the Pacific Northwest. Two to five inches rains soaked western Washington and western Oregon, and winds gusting above 70 mph caused extensive damage. Wind gusts on Rattlesnake Ridge in Washington State reached 130 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2008: A rare, EF3 tornado tracked across southeastern Wisconsin. Experiencing a tornado in Wisconsin in January is extremely rare. In fact, it had only happened once between 1950 and 2007, when an F3 tornado affected parts of Green and Rock Counties on January 24, 1967. That tornado in South Central Wisconsin was part of a much larger outbreak of 30 tornadoes across mostly Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri. Wisconsin ended up with 30 tornadoes in 1967.

24 / 8 static shock type day. Low of 17 here. Cold and windy the main story the next 3 days. Watch how much precip (snow) can make it up with this saturday storm. Beyond there cold overall and latest look has coldest airmass Jan 13 - 15 then reloading post the 20th into the northeast with trough digging in.

Those were the days of the MRF and AVN from the american suite. Think the GFS started 2003 or 04.

Cold period daily Jan 4 EWR: 36 / 28 (-2) NYC: 33 / 28 (-4) LGA: 34 / 29 (-4) JFK: 37 / 30 (0 E) -------------------------------------------------- Jan 5: EWR: 36 / 28 (-2) NYC: 33 / 28 (-4) LGA: 34 / 28 (-4) JFK: 37 / 29 (-1)