SACRUS

First 90s of the season, more to come Sunday 5/19 EWR: 91 ACY: 89 PHL: 89 New Brnswck: 88 TEB: 87 TTN: 87 BLM: 87 NYC: 86 JFK: 86 LGA: 86 ISP: 85

87 here - warm (beach day) maxes so far EWR: 89 NYC: 86 LGA: 84

Up to 75 already and likely touch 90 here in CNJ along with other warmer spots and it wouldnt surprise me if LGA or even NYC come close factoring in with the recent dryness. Onshore flow penetrates Thu and Fri before we start warming it back up some time Saturday although clouds may keep temps capped on Sat. Next shot at 90s Sunday (5/23) and between Tue (5/25) and Thu (5/27) next week with next surge of 850 temps >15C, peaking Wed (5/26) at 18c. Beyond there heights look to rebuild for the holiday weekend. Overall warm for the period. We'll see how long it takes to turn wetter and do we see a complete reversal. I dont get the sense of a 2002/2010 type dry hot progression and still feel we are more 2016 type warm and humid / wet summer.

84 today wall to wall sunshine. gorgeous day. Was looking back at records and saw 30s on this date in 1983 . Dont recall that period.

low of 46 now to 71 and it feels very warm already. Should get to the mid 80s inland and expect the area to exceed guidance with mostly sunny conditions as it looks to stay clear through the afternoon. Chance at 90s for the typical warmer spots with 850 at 14C-15C tomorrow. Thu - Sat pending on clouds and ocean influence looks to keep temps parked in the low 80s (max) or upper 70s. I do think Thu may overperform inland. Sun (5/23) - Wed (5/26) could see more chances at 90 and perhaps in the extreme the season's opening heat wave for some. Guidance has surge of 850 temps >16c by Tue and wed. Beyond there it looks overall warm with higher heights building back along the east coast towards the holiday weekend.

65 now off a low of 43. On the way to 80 in CNJ today with mostly sunny skies. Tremendous stretch of weather arriving that may linger into early June for summer enthusiasts. Guidance has 850 temps >15C by Wed and Thu (unless clouds interrupt) 90s are likely for the warmer spots , recent dryness should push temps to accelerate ahead of guidance. Pending on the onshore flow penetration and subsequent clouds and showers on Fri/Sat some inland spots should still reach 80s. It should warm back up by Sunday with another push of heat is possible Tue (5/25)- wed (5/26) as guidance pushes 850 temps >18c then. Beyond there still looking warm to end the month with long range hinting at a more traditional summery holiday weekend.

That transition to warm happened sooner than the 2016 shift but still feel 2016 offers good benchmark this summer . Made it up to 80 yesterday, clouds will likely get in the way at matching that but as the ridge shifted east on guidance and now chance at 90s (barring clouds) Wed (5/19) - Sat (5/22). Models push 850 temps to >16C by Thu and near 18c Fri and Sat before storms arrive. Beyond there looks like a cool down 5/23 - 5/26 then some more warmth to end the month. We'll see if we turn noticeably wetter from this dry period come June.

Moving the dial up from the 60s to the 70s starting today for some and Thu for most through next Tuesday. We'll have to see the position of the ridge and any onshore influence next week 5/18 - 5/21 but think some of the warmer spots will get to 80s as guidance brings in 850 temps 12C - 16C. Beyond there the last week from the 25th on of May could turn warmer and feature the seasons first heat but plenty of time to track that.

Looking like a nice stretch of dry / sunny weather Mon 5/10 - Thu 5/13 with temps increasing from the 60s to low 70 by Thu. Fri may see more clouds and rain before a stronger warmeup 5/18 - 5/20.

Next 10 days looking like mainly 60s, (50s tomorrow) and an outside chance that some of the warmer spots may touch 70 or low 70s Wed (5/12) or Thu (5/13). May 18 still looks like the start of a change to higher heights / warmer temps with the following week to 10 days (end of May) perhaps featuring the opportunity for strong warmth.

gorgeous day today despite being cooler

60's on six on replay the next 8 - 12 days. Temps generally in the 60s with cloudy/rainy days perhaps below 60 (Sat 5/8, Mon 5/10). Rain chances with nothing too heavy. 2016 progression still being advertised on the longer range guidance where the last week of May looks to turn much warmer and perhaps hot. Glad Don is also seeing this potential. May 18th may mark the start of the transition to a warmer period.

There is some clearing or breaks in the clouds nosing into EPA and SNJ, so perhaps some pokes of sun by 2PM

Despite the cool 20 days in 2016 the month as a whole winded up near normal. I think we may see a similar progression , almost like an April replay. But overall more cool or near normal days with persistent clouds looking likely though at least the 16th or so.

Looks like max temps <75 the next 12 days or so with a majority in the 60s, before guidance indicates a more w/sw flow in the May 18 period (long range). It is still looking more and more like a similar progression of 2016 May where the first two plus weeks were cooler than normal before the month ended much warmer.

81/64 here. 850s at >15C argued for quick surge with any duration of sunshine

72/62 getting humid. Sun is in/out

Sun starting to breakthrough here and up to 65

Clouds in the way today as front south of prior projections. Still, with enough sun later this PM could see a surge to near 80 in CNJ up to EWR. Not sure how much clearing we get though.

This may as currently modeled could see a similar progression to 2016 where the first 2 weeks plus featured days that were cooler than normal and generally had highs low low 70s or below. Then surge of heat by the 22nd or so.

Any breaks of sun tomorrow with duration should yield 80 or higher but it could stay cloudy with onshore east of the city. Beyond that May 4 - May 10 look close to normal overall before the next brief shot at 80+ May 11 - 12. Even Steven first half of may.

63 / cloudy and some light sporadic showers the next few hours.

Looks like a tendency for torugh to dig into the Plains/GL then pass through the NE May 7 - May 15. Kind of a back and forth 70s some 80s on the east side of the trough with S/SW flow then cooldown. Would suspect its wetter overall through the first two weeks of May. Before then shot at >80 Sunday 5/2 and Tue 5/4.

2021 predictions EWR: 38 - 40 LGA: 35 - 37 NYC: 24 - 26 New Brnswck: 38 - 40