SACRUS

73 / 71 and partly cloudy. Warm and humid today with perhaps an isolated storm upper 80s to low 90s in the warm spots. Mon (8/14) turning cloudy and trough and front push through later in the evening into Tue (8/15). Looks like a widespread storms nd rain . Clears out by Wed (8/16). Beyond there overall warm with potential heat into next weekend 8/19 and beyond. GFS bonkers with ridging into the east with a 600 DM ridge into the OV while Euro much further southwest. Heat potential there for the 8/19 - 8/23 period. Beyond that will the seasonal tendency break with more prolonged ridging into the EC and trough into the WC with siustained heat or a middle ground riding an overall warm period with stronger heat to the south.

8/12 EWR: 90 BLM: 87 LGA: 87 New Brnswck: 87 ACY: 86 TEB: 86 PHL: 86 TTN: 85 NYC: 85 ISP: 82 JFK: 81

Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (2021) August blast 2 years ago NYC: 97 (1944) LGA: 98 (2021) Lows: EWR: 54 (1954) NYC: 55 (1989) LGA: 56 (1979) Historical: 1752: The following is from the Journals of the Rev. Thomas Smith, and the Rev. Samuel Deane, published in 1849. “In the evening there was dismal thunder and lightning, and abundance of rain, and such a hurricane as was never the like in these parts of the world.” This hurricane struck Portland, Maine. 1778 - A Rhode Island hurricane prevented an impending British-French sea battle, and caused extensive damage over southeast New England. (David Ludlum) 1933 - The temperature at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, CA, hit 127 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of August. (The Weather Channel) 1936 - The temperature at Seymour, TX, hit 120 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1955 - During the second week of August hurricanes Connie and Diane produced as much as 19 inches of rain in the northeastern U.S. forcing rivers from Virginia to Massachusetts into a high flood. Westfield MA was deluged with 18.15 inches of rain in 24 hours, and at Woonsocket RI the Blackstone River swelled from seventy feet in width to a mile and a half. Connecticut and the Delaware Valley were hardest hit. Total damage in New England was 800 million dollars, and flooding claimed 187 lives. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Early afternoon thunderstorms in Arizona produced 3.90 inches of rain in ninety minutes at Walnut National Monument (located east of Flagstaff), along with three inches of pea size hail, which had to be plowed off the roads. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Fifteen cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Youngstown OH reported twenty-six days of 90 degree weather for the year, a total equal to that for the entire decade of the 1970s. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms were scattered across nearly every state in the Union by late in the day. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Fergus Falls MN, and golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph at Black Creek WI. In the Chicago area, seven persons at a forest preserve in North Riverside were injured by lightning. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2004: Hurricane Charley was the third named storm and the second hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season. Charley lasted from August 9 to August 15, and at its peak intensity, it attained 150 mph winds, making it a strong Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It made landfall in southwestern Florida at maximum strength, making it the most powerful hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Andrew struck Florida in 1992. 2005: A tornado strikes Wright, Wyoming, a coal-mining community, killing two and destroying 91 homes and damaging about 30 more in around the town.

76/ 65 and partly cloudy. Some scattered storms later otherwise warm and a bit humid and mid / upper 80s. Sun (8/13) dry and warm - great beach day. Upper 80s to low 90s in the warm spots. By Mon (8/14) trough is approaching with clouds and showers/ storms by the later that night into Tue (8/15) next widespread storms and rain for the area. Beyond there overall warm with spurts of heat before ridging builds into the east by next weekend 8/19 - 8/20. We'll see if its a drier NW/W flow like the Euro or the Western Atlantic Ridge inluenced SW flow. But overall in the beyond looking warmer to much warmer than normal the last 1/3 of the month.

8/11 EWR: 88 LGA: 87 BLM: 86 New Brnswck: 86 TEB: 86 JFK: 86 TTN: 86 PHL: 86 ACY: 85 NYC: 85 ISP: 84

Records Highs: EWR 102 (1949) NYC: 102 (1944) LGA: 99 (1949) Lows: EWR: 56 (1972) NYC: 56 (1962) LGA: 57 (1962) Historical: 1940 - A major hurricane struck Savannnah, GA, and Charleston, SC, causing the worst inland flooding since 1607. (David Ludlum) 1940: A Category 2 hurricane struck the Georgia and South Carolina coast. A 13-foot storm tide was measured along the South Carolina coast, while over 15 inches of rain fell across northern North Carolina. Significant flooding and landslides struck Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia during the system's slow trek as a weakening tropical storm, and then as an extratropical cyclone, through the Southeast. The landslides which struck North Carolina were considered a once in a century event. Damages relating to the storm totaled $13 million (1940 USD), and 50 people perished. 1944 - The temperature at Burlington, VT, soared to an all-time record high of 101 degrees. (The Weather Channel) The Dog Days officially come to an end on this date, having begun the third day in July. Superstition has it that dogs tend to become mad during that time of the year. (The Weather Channel) 1980 - Clouds and moisture from Hurricane Allen provided a brief break from the torrid Texas heatwave, with daily highs mostly in the 70s to lower 90s. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - An early evening thunderstorm in Wyoming produced hail up to two inches in diameter from Alva to Hulett. Snow plows had to be used to clear Highway 24 south of Hulett, where hail formed drifts two feet deep. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Moisture from what remained of Tropical Storm Beryl resulted in torrential rains across eastern Texas. Twelve and a half inches of rain deluged Enterprise TX, which was more than the amount received there during the previous eight months. Philadelphia PA reported a record forty-four days of 90 degree weather for the year. Baltimore MD and Newark NJ reported a record fourteen straight days of 90 degree heat. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - One of the most severe convective outbreaks of record came to a climax in southern California after four days. Thunderstorms deluged Benton CA with six inches of rain two days in a row, and the flooding which resulted caused more than a million dollars damage to homes and highways. Thunderstorms around Yellowstone Park WY produced four inches of rain in twenty minutes resulting in fifteen mudslides. Thunderstorms over Long Island NY drenched Suffolk County with 8 to 10 inches of rain. Twenty-three cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. It was, for some cities, the fourth straight morning of record cold temperatures. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1999: An F2 tornado touched down in the metropolitan area of Salt Lake City. The tornado lasted ten minutes and killed one person, injured more than 80 people, and caused more than $170 million in damages. It was the most destructive tornado in Utah's history and awakened the entire state's population to the fact that the Beehive State does experience tornadoes.

80 / 64 and mostly / partly sunny. Another amazing day on tap and overall decent weekend outside of scattered storms Sat (8/12) evening its looking very nice. Mid / upper 80s perhaps the hot spots gets to 90 with enough sun. The next trough moves through later Mon (8/14) - Tue (8/15) with scattered storms. Beyond there overall warmer with spurts of heat trickled in a day here or there. through Sat (8/19). Beyond there ridging / heights elevated into the east but caution advised with seasonal tendencies. Believe we are riding above normal.

PHL: 1.09 TTN: 0.85 New Brnswck: 0.75 BLM: 0.58 LGA: 0.49 NYC: 0.48 EWR: 0.45 TEB: 029 ISP: 0.27 JFK: 0.26

8/10 EWR: 83 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 ACY: 82 BLM: 81 New Brnswck: 81 NYC:81 ISP: 80 JFK: 78 PHL: 78 TTN: 78

Records: 8/10 Highs: EWR: 102 (1949) NYC: 98 (1949) LGA: 99 (1949) Lows: EWR: 57 (1962) NYC: 55 (1879) LGA: 57 (1962) Historical: 1856 - The Isle Derniere (Last Island) disaster occurred off the coast of Louisiana. A storm tide drowned 140 vacationers as a five foot wave swept over Low Island during a hurricane. (The Weather Channel) 1882 - Sandusky OH noted a four minute snow squall during the morning, frost was reported in the suburbs of Chicago, and a killing frost was reported at Cresco IA. (The Weather Channel) 1884: An earthquake, centered near New York City and registering a magnitude 5.5, hit the region a little after 2 PM. The tremor made houses shake, chimneys fall, and residents wonder what the heck was going on, according to a New York Times article two days later. 1898 - The temperature at Pendleton OR climbed all the way to 119 degrees at set a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1924 - Colorado's deadliest tornado killed a woman and nine children in one house along its twenty-mile path east southeast of Thurman. Mennonite men had left the farm to provide possible aid, as the 200-yard wide storm was first seen while far away.(The Weather Channel) 1936 - The temperature soared to 114 degrees at Plain Dealing, LA, and reached 120 degrees at Ozark AR, to establish record highs for those two states. (The Weather Channel) 1980 - Hurricane Allen came ashore above Brownsville, TX, dropping fifteen inches of rain near San Antonio, and up to 20 inches in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Tidal flooding occurred along the South Texas coast. Hurricane Allen packed winds to 150 mph, and also spawned twenty-nine tornadoes. Total damage from the storm was estimated at 750 million dollars. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Unseasonably hot weather continued in the southeastern U.S. Ten cities in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina reported record high temperatures for the date. Macon GA hit 101 degrees. A tropical depression deluged southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana with torrential rains. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Citizens of Bluefield, WV, where the Chamber of Commerce provides free lemonade on days when the temperature warms into the 90s, were able to celebrate their record high of 90 degrees. Eight other cities also reported record high temperatures for the date,including Bismarck ND with a reading of 102 degrees.(The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thirty-eight cities in the south central and southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 48 degrees, and Victoria TX with a low of 63 degrees. Oklahoma City OK reported a record cool afternoon high of 71 degrees, and the daily high of 64 degrees at Raleigh NC established a record for August. In Arizona, a record sixty-four day streak of 100 degree days at Phoenix came to an end.(The National Weather Summary)

77 / 68 . Cloudy with light rain showers around. Less robust totals from previously forecast now will likely yield 0.25 or more area wide. Clearing later nd overnight into a very nice / warm Fri (8/11). Perhaps the warm spots touch upper 80s to 90. The weekend looks warm and humid and mainly dry outside some popup storms later Saturday. With enough sun the warm spots to 90, otherwise mid - upper 80s. Overall warm and humid to hot at times. The next trough plows through Tue (8/15) - Wed (8/16) with storms. Warm back up by later next week before trough moves through in whats looking like a bit of back and forth with heat coming in spurts ahead of the troughs. In the way beyond we'll see if ridging sustains east of the southern plains. The Westrn Atl Ridge is nearby but not building west as initially forecast in the next 10 days.

8/9 EWR: 90 LGA: 88 BLM: 87 TEB: 87 JFK: 87 ACY: 87 PHL: 87 NYC: 86 New Brnswck: 86 ISP: 85 TTN: 85

A few popup storms/showers into NE PA - see if they make it to NW NJ

Records 8/9: Highs: EWR: 105 (2001) surge of heat continued under the heat dome NYC: 103 (2001) LGA: 104 (2001) Lows: EWR: 58 (1944) NYC: 57 (1989) LGA: 61 (1962) Historical: 1878 - The second most deadly tornado in New England history struck Wallingford CT killing 34 persons, injuring 100 others, and completely destroying thirty homes. The tornado started as a waterspout over a dam on the Quinnipiac River. It was 400 to 600 feet wide, and had a short path length of two miles. (The Weather Channel) 1969 - A tornado hit Cincinnati OH killing four persons and causing fifteen million dollars property damage. The tornado moved in a southeasterly direction at 40 to 50 mph. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Florida baked in the summer heat. Nine cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Jacksonville with a reading of 101 degrees. Miami FL reported a record high of 98 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Tropical Storm Beryl deluged Biloxi with 6.32 inches of rain in 24 hours, and in three days drenched Pascagoula MS with 15.85 inches of rain. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region and over the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma producedwind gusts to 92 mph at Harrah. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Evening thunderstorms in Arizona deluged Yuma with record torrential rains for the second time in two weeks. The rainfall total of 5.25 inches at the Yuma Quartermaster Depot established a state 24 hour record, and was nearly double the normal annual rainfall. Some of the homes were left with four feet of water in them. Seventy-six cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lake Charles LA equalled their record for August with a low of 61 degrees. Canaan Valley WV was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

76 /60 and quite a great summer day. Mid and upper 80s on NW flow with 850 MB Temperatures 12C- 14C. Thu (8/10) clouds and storms move in by the PM a widespread near or > 1 inch amounts. Beyond there a more humid/warm weekend with storms chances Sat night and perhaps into Sun morning. A similar progression to early Jul. Warm and humid and where/when sun is out it warms up quickly and possible chance near 90. Mon (8/14) warm and drier before Trough moves through and out Tue (8/15) - Wed (8/16). The western Atlantic ridge builds west to a point much less than initially modeled but a trough does come down into the WC with heights coming up into the east or an overall warm / humid to hot at times period 8/17 - late month. Strong heat is nearby and could make it to or just near the area. Looks above normal or the period perhaos ridge moves over and forced onshore later in the period. Tropics of course need to be watched with strong W. Atl Ridge near by forcing storms west.

8/8 EWR: 84 PHL: 84 ISP: 83 JFK: 82 TEB: 81 LGA: 81 ACY: 81 BLM: 80 NYC: 80 New Brnswck: 78 TTN: 77

16 years ago tornado in Staten Island and Bay Ridge Brooklyn

Records: Highs: EWR: 101 (2001) - heat dome was estabished NYC: 99 (2001) LGA: 98 (2001) Lows: EWR: 56 (1989) NYC: 54 (1903) LGA: 59 (1989) Historical: 1874: Swarms of Rocky Mountain locust invaded Denver, Colorado. Millions were seen cruising through the air. The insects were picked up by a thunderstorm gust front and carried into the city. The grasshoppers ravaged crops in surrounding counties for the last month. 1878 - The temperature at Denver, CO, soars to an all-time record high of 105 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1881 - A cloudburst and flash flood occurred at Central Springs, CO, and Idaho Springs, CO. (David Ludlum) 1882 - An August snowstorm was reported by a ship on Lake Michigan. A thick cloud reportedly burst on the decks covering them with snow and slush six inches deep. Snow showers were observed at shore points that day. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1983 - The temperature at Big Horn Basin, WY, reached 115 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorm rains in eastern Nebraska sent the Wahoo River and Ithica River above flood stage. Thunderstorm rains in western Iowa sent the Nishnabotna River over flood stage. Up to seven inches of rain deluged the Council Bluffs area Friday evening and Saturday morning. Thunderstorms produced 4.4 inches of rain in three hours Friday evening, along with golf ball size hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from central Kansas to southern Wisconsin late in the day. Thunderstorms in Iowa produced hail three inches in diameter at Vinton, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Donohue and near Mount Pleasant. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A total of ninety-nine cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Alpena MI with a reading of 40 degrees. Mount Mitchell NC was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 35 degrees. Early evening thunderstorms around Las Vegas NV produced wind gusts to 116 mph. The high winds damaged or destroyed about eighty- two aircraft at Henderson Sky Harbor Airport and McCarran International Airport, causing fourteen million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

73 / 69 about 0.75 in the bucket the last 30 hours or so. pmostly cloudy now but some breaks in the clouds later today after some scattered / isolated showers move through. Clearing out and drying out Wed (8/9) / Thu (8/10). Warm mid upper 80s. 850s are about 12C-14C so perhaps a stray 90 with enough sun but likely upper 80s does it. By Thu evening the next round of storms is moving through as trough moves east and butts up against the W Atlantic Ridge. Storms Fri (8/11) morning then clearing with a warmer weekend and looking mainly dry although scattered storms wouldnt surprise me coming back into the forecast, The western atlantic ridge hit a delay west of Bermuda and the latest forecasts dont have the westward push prior runs had. Mon (8/14) - Tue (8/15) trough moves through and lifts out. Strong heat skirts by the area to the south in pulses 24 hours out and repeat afew days later. Beyond that 8/17 and onwards later in the month - overall warm to hot (at times 90s a day or two), humid and storms chances. The way beyond has the EC ridging but we'll need to track the seasonal tendency to adjust that west and the W. Atlantic Ridge nearby.

8/7 Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (2001) NYC: 104 (1918) LGA: 99 (2001) Lows: EWR: 57 (1948) NYC: 57 (1994) LGA: 61 (1975) Historical: 1904 - A flash flood near Pueblo, CO, washed a train from the tracks killing 89 passengers. A bridge, weakened by the floodwaters sweeping through the valley below, gave way under the weight of the train dashing all but the sleeping cars into the torrent drowning the occupants. Rail service was frequently interrupted in the Rocky Mountain Region and southwestern U.S. that summer due to numerous heavy downpours which washed out the railroad beds delaying trains as much as five days. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1918 - Philadelphia, PA, established an all-time record with a high of 106 degrees. New York City experienced its warmest day and night with a low of 82 degrees and a high of 102 degrees. Afternoon highs of 108 degrees at Flemington NJ and Somerville NJ established state records for the month of August. (The Weather Channel) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1924: A tornado caused estimated F4 damage moved southeast from south of Osseo, WI to Black River Falls, WI. One person was killed as a home was leveled and a boy was killed running to the storm cellar near the start of the path. Two people died as farm homes were swept away near the northeast edge of Black River Falls. Damage totaled $200,000 as 50 farms were hit and buildings were unroofed in the town of Northfield. The tornado followed the present route of Interstate 94. 1984 - El Paso, TX, normally receives 1.21 inches of rain in August. They got it in forty-five minutes, with four more inches to boot, during a storm which left Downtown El Paso under five feet of water. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - A rare outbreak of seven tornadoes occurred in New England. One tornado carved its way through Cranston RI and Providence RI causing twenty injuries. Rhode Island had not reported a tornado in twelve years, and three touched down in 24 hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1987 - Morning thunderstorms drenched Goldsboro, NC, with 3.37 inches of rain. Late morning thunderstorms in Arizona produced dime size hail, wind gusts to 50 mph, and two inches of rain, at Sierra Vista. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A dozen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Waco, TX, with a reading of 107 degrees. The record high of 88 degrees at Marquette, MI, was their twenty-third of the year. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin, with wind gusts to 81 mph reported at McCool, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Forty cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Valentine, NE, with a reading of 40 degrees, and Belcourt ND with a low of 37 degrees. Martin SD was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 30 degrees. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed over Florida and Washington State, with record highs of 100 degress at Daytona Beach, FL, 101 degrees at Walla Walla, WA, and 103 degrees at Hanford, WA. (The National Weather Summary)

8/7 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 85 TEB: 85 EWR: 84 TTN: 84 LGA: 82 BLM: 82 ACY: 82 NYC: 81 JFK: 79 ISP: 79

low level clouds burning off and sun into NJ

76 / 71 and 0.59 in the bucket between 3Am and 450AM. Mainly cloudy but already breaks in the clouds and could see some sun and a push into the 80s before the next round of storms this afternoon and evening. Tue looks cloudy with isolated showers / storms before drying out Wed (8/10). Ridge anchored out west and trough into the NE. The Western Atlantic ridge builds west in phases, foirst by the end of this week and into the weekend butting up against the trouh and keeping the boundary front nearby with storms chances. By 8/14 / 8/15 the ridge is further expanding albeit not as strong as previous forecasts and likely more like late July where core of the ridge keep the strongest heat south but warm to hot , humid and likely storms chances as we push over into the second half of the month. The way beyond - looks like the trough is in / out before ridging into the east.

8/6 PHL: 89 EWR: 87 New Brnswck: 87 NYC: 87 LGA: 86 TEB: 86 TTN: 86 BLM: 84 ACY: 84 ISP: 83 JFK: 81