SACRUS

18z RGEM

1/22 18x RGEM 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Kuchera is near a foot

Yeah im not a fan of kuchera but its probably better than 10:1 for a portion and worse for a portion with sleet so i went 10:1 as a whole (model foreast-wise) 

1/22 18z NAM total QPF storm

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

1/22 18z NAM

1/22 18Z NAM

snow arriving around midnight sunday morning

1/22 18z NAM updating:

We have consistency with QPF in the 1.00 or > range and even the warmest guidance has 6-9 inches of snow into nyc.

1/22 12z total QPF storm

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

Euro updating

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 12Z : 
NYC area
Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1

NAM (84H) : 0.7  /  (6.7)
RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0)
ICON :  1.4 / (8.5)
GFS: 1.4 / (12.5)
GGEM: 1.2 / (8.2)
UKMET: 0.8 - 1.0 / (8.5)
GEFS: 1.4 / (12.8)
Euro AI AIFS: 1.2 / (11.1)
 

Updated as we wait for the euro to complete the suite

1/22 12z Euro AI AIFS  total QPF storm

Total Snow / Sleet (10:1)

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 12Z : 
NYC area
Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1

NAM (84H) : 0.7  /  (6.7)
RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0)
ICON :  1.4 / (8.5)
GFS: 1.4 / (12.5)
GGEM: 1.2 / (8.2)
UKMET: 0.8 - 1.0 / (8.5)
GEFS: 1.4 / (12.8)
 

Updated

1/22 12z GEFS

Total QPF mean - storm

Total Snow / sleet (10:1) :

LP Mean lean

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 12Z : 
NYC area
Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1

NAM (84H) : 0.7  /  (6.7)
RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0)
ICON :  1.4 / (8.5)
GFS: 1.4 / (12.5)
GGEM: 1.2 / (8.2)
UKMET: 0.8 - 1.0 / (8.5)
 

Updated

1/22 12z UKMET

total QPF

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

2 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Until the storm is in the middle of the country you are throwing darts for outcomes.   As of the morning it was between Hawaii & CA

42 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 12Z : 
NYC area
Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1

NAM (84H) : 0.7  /  (6.7)
RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0)
ICON :  1.4 / (8.5)
GFS: 1.4 / 12.5
GGEM: 1.2 / 8.2
 

Updated

1/22 12Z GGEM  total QPF storm

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

12Z GGEM: