SACRUS

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/21 12z Summary

Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC

/
Snow 10:1  NYC

SREF: 1/8 / 17.1
NAM: 2.5 / 24.1

Updated with the NAM 

Seaside Heights and Point Pleasant with 3 feet of snow according to the NAM

2/21 12z NAM 

Total QPF 2/22  - 2/23-24

Snow 10:1

Still snowing through 4pm Monday (21z)

nam down to 968 at 2/23 9z / 4am sunday

GFS warmest at 15z (10:00 Sunday morning)

lowest (29) at 12z Mon / 7AM

1 minute ago, Blizzardo said:

195 is like exit 100 on the parkway

1-1.75 QPF

2/21 12z Summary

Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC

/
Snow 10:1  NYC

SREF: 1/8 / 17.1
NAM: 2.5 / 24.1
NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.4 / 13.9
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1
GFS:  2.0 / 20.3
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8
GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7
GEFS: 1.8 / 17.8
UKMET: 1/2  / 12.9
Euro : 1.0 / 10.2
Euro AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.6

2/21  09z SREF

Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

10:1 Snow

I posted this late last night and not sure i am navigating the CIPS analog website correctly but this is what i was able to find - fwiw if anything:

 

• Individual Analogs
• 1. 20200306/1800
  2. 19800207/0600
  3. 20180307/1800
  4. 20230314/0000
  5. 20130325/1800
  6. 20150127/0000
  7. 20180313/0000
  8. 20140326/0000
  9. 19830116/0000
  10. 20010305/1800
  11. 20060212/1200
  12. 19840329/1200
  13. 20130306/1800
  14. 20110127/0000
  15. 19870126/1200

Probably lose 0.2-0.3 before best snow/dynamics and cooling takeover but still looking like a solid foot or more i95 east 

06z :

Models 

Mean Total QPF (NYC): 1.49 inches

Mean 10:1 Snowfall (NYC): 15.5 inches

2/21 06z Summary

Total QPF NYC
/ 
Total 10:1 Snow NYC

SREF: 1.8 / 16.9
NAM: 2.3 / 22.5
RGEM: 1.5 / 14.7
ICON: 1.4 / 12.9
GFS: 2.3 / 22
GFS AI AIFS: 1.6 / 15.8
UKMET: 1.0 / 10.4
GEFS:   1.8 / 18.4
EURO:  .09 / 10.1
EURO AI AIFS: 1.1 / 11.1
 

2/21 00z EURO

Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

Snow 10:1

2/21 00z EURO AI AIFS

Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

Snow 10:1

Im not 100% sure i am navigating the CISP analogs page correct but came up with this list

Just now, Snowpsycho said:

On what forum did Ji and DT go at it constantly. I remember they were like a comedy team. DT was a bully lol. Sorry for the off topic stuff. 

Wright Weather or Eastern - good ol days

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

That's insane GEFS snow totals. I don't think I have ever seen that on an ensemble.

Not in the 48 - 60 hour range , not that i can recall

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/21 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC

SREF:  1.5 / 14.1
NAM: 2.3 / 22.3
ICON: 1.8 / 16.7
RGEM: 1.0 / 9.2
GFS: 1.9 / 19.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.6 / 16
GGEM: 1.4 / 13.5
UKMET: 1.0 / 11
GEFS: 2.1 / 20.5

Updated with the GEFS mean QPF / snow 10:1

2/21 00z GEFS

Total QPF Mean 2/22 - 2/23-24

Now 10:1

UKMET

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/21 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC

SREF:  1.5 / 14.1
NAM: 2.3 / 22.3
ICON: 1.8 / 16.7
RGEM: 1.0 / 9.2
GFS: 1.9 / 19.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.6 / 16
GGEM: 1.4 / 13.5
UKMET: 1.0 / 11

Updated with UKMET

2/21 00z UKMET

Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23 - 24  (expected more)

Snow 10:1

ukmet 979 off delmarva