SACRUS
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Id say so either the 14/15 or 18/19 timeframe.
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Clear skies (higher) 850 MB temps near 12-14C. Believe there will be some 80 degree readings around the area today. Northeast flow cools it down Tue / Wed before warmer SW flow Thu / Fri. This coming weekend we'll see how much of the tropical fetch can merge with approaching front. 11/13 - 11/22 Looks mainly chilly - brunt of cold is east but surge of the chill comes in by the 18-19. Last week of Nov moderates more towards or above normal
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Warm today , Shot at 80 Monday then cooler Tue/Wed with Northeast flow. Warmer Thu - Fri before cooler, perhaps stormer next weekend. 11/12 - 11/23 looking chilly with brunt of cold still west but much colder and freezes likely.
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Warmth looks to last about 7-8 days before sharp cooldown but as Bluewave said brunt of the cold blast 11/12 - 11/22 looks to be into the MW/GL / west of the region. Still a strong cooldown from the near and record warmth. I may have been wrong about earlier oct call for no more 80s till next march. Sat / Mon a chance. Sunday looks too cloudy.
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Ridge building in
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Up to 73 here, warmer than it was in Palm srings yesterday before flying back east. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif
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Record highs in the mid / upper 80s 6 years ago in 2016.
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Down to 32 here last night and on the way to 56 or so. Gradual warm up starts Thu (10/20) with a much warmer Fri / Sat (10/22) where some areas will touch 70. Ridge in the east but undercut by low backing into the Northeast by Sunday night with clouds Sunday and some showers / rain Mon (10/24) and Tue (10/25). If we clear Wed (10/26) another shot at 70s before a brief cool down in the Thu (10/27) . Looks warm to end the month in time for Halloween with te next front coming in around the start of the month.
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Sun out now.
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0.39 in the bucket here. Last of the clouds will likely come through the area east in the next 1 to two hours as we dry out. Gorgeous weekend on tap. sun , dry upper 60s / low 70s. Monday (10/17) front comes through doesnt look like much rain. Chill arrives Tue (10/18) - Thu (10/20) before moderating on Fri (10/22). Ridge builds into the easy but low my get traped under the ridge and we may be overall warm but could turn wet.
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66 and cloudy, rain , showers nearby. Perhaps the Yankee game may be possible. Front and rain clears by Fri pm. Overall dry and great weekend. Upper 60s/ low 70s and partly or mostly sunny. Chill down arrives by Tue (10/18) evening as sharp trough pushes the coolest of the season so far with frost and freezes for many especially inland areas outside the city/coast. Tue / Wed stuck in the low / mid 50s. Moderate by Thu (10/20) then warmer next Fri (10/21) and weekend.
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Another mostly spectacular day ahead with partly sunny and seasonal upper 60s/low 70s. Thu (10/13) front comes through and rain come through in the afternoon. Perhaps the brunt of the heaviest rain is north of the area. By Fri (10/14) its dry and sunny with a very pleasant weekend on tap. A reminder how key those rains were to open the month. Chill down 10/18 - 10/22 before redge builds into the EC - still not certain this wont be a ridge that has more rain with it,but overall warmer than normal look 10/23 / last week or so of the month. I do think we fall short of any more 80s but we shall see.
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Record warmth 11 years ago on this date in 2011 with mid / upper 80s throughout NJ/NYC. Same in 1949 record highs. Record lows in 1929 / 1979 down below ferezing.
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Down to 40 here and on the way to low 70s. Been a very splendid few days back in the area. Next shot at rain Thu (10/13) and into Fri, before clearing out for another nice and mainly dry and seasonal weekend. Slight chance of showers Sat night into Sunday. Beyond there more near normal through mid week Wed (10/17) , with next blast of cool coming Wed (10/18) and lasting into next weekend 10/21. Beyond there to end the month it does look less torughy and ridge along the coast - warmer but could be wetter.
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Was down at 33 and now up to sunny 64 and gorgeous out. A bit breezy but nice. Dry and warming the next 3 days / though Wed (10/12). May touch 70 / low 70s in places Tue and Wed. Watch front and low on Thu which could bring some rain/storms / wind. We'll see if we clear out Friday (10/14) or clouds and showers linger. Otherwise next weekend Sat (10/15) and Sun (10/16) look dry and near normal before deep trough and next strong cool shot moves in by Mon (10/17). Looks chilly through the middle of the next wok week. We'll see there is a warmer rebound sustained in the cards for the close of the month.
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More clouds than sun so far this morning.
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From 81 to 45 yesterday. In what will likely be the last 80s till March or so. 70s may not be far behind. Possible first or second 30s for inland areas. Game time temp in Flushing looks to be 50 and falling into the 40s. Looking mainly dry through Wed (10/12) with a brief warmup Columbus Day (10/10) and Tue (10/11) back near 70. Strong front comes through and possible low on Thu (10/13) / Fri (10/15). Deep trough moves into the east by next weekend and overall cool / first frost /freezes look possible widespread by 10/17. Beyond there we'll see if the wester ridge is shoved out and we warm up the final week of the month.
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78 Here. Front to CPA http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif
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Front / clouds into WPA nearing CPA
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Record warmth 25 years ago (gulp) in 1997 with highs in the mid to upper 80s., tied some prior record in 1944. 30s in 1958/1904.
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Its way out there but as the current forecasts now, Oct 16 - 18 looks to be potential widespread first frosts/freezes. Still wonder beyond there towards the 20th if we dont shift a bit warmer.
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78 Thursday down to 50 and on the way to try and match 78 or even 80 before the front (dry) comes through. Cooler this weekend before a bit of an up/down back and forth bias a bit below normal through mid month when a potential stronger cool down comes through. Either way shots of reinforcing cool, for a day or two moderating a day then cool again till Oct 15. Looking overall dry again, with next shot of rain coming in about a week with the next front 10/13. you wonder if we didnt get the 6 day rains where we'd be in the next two weeks.
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MPO: 3.22 ABE: 2.07 (need to confirm) AVP: 2.02
