SACRUS

Very good point as seen in the last two cutoff ULL migrations. add a day or two vs model projections. Suspect the period would be 6/30 - 7/2 or 7/3 before the flow turns on the heat by 4th of July weekend. Alternately we can see a scenario where the flow stays more northerly pushing down the heat during that period. I would lean towards the onshore flow for a few days to open the month. With enough clouds maybe the GFS was onto something unusually cool for a day to two before the heat can filter in.

Up to 78 off a low of 67 here. Overnight runs continue a warm pattern only interrupted 6/30 - 7/2 (or 3rd) by an onshore component before more heat comes in for Independence Day weekend. ECM did show this feature on the 00z guidance while GFS warmer than the Monday runs. Tendency has been for ridging to build north so that period is likely to see heat muted for a 3-4 day window. Beyond there July looks to sizzle for much of the nation. Days near or exceeding 90 : 6/23,24, 27, 28, 29, before a few days of cooler.

Overall looking like very warm 4th of July weekend from this far in advance. ECM is hotter than the GFS but both imply above normal to hot conditions. Believe the onshore flow timing is more 6/30 - 7/2 or 3. But being that is has been a reoccurring theme this past 2 months, something to watch as we go through the next few days. 276 hours to go...

6/22 LGA: 93 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 91 TEB: 91 NYC: 90 BLM: 90 TTN: 89 PHL: 89 ACY: 88 ISP: 88 JFK: 87

6/22 LGA: 93 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 91 TEB: 91 NYC: 90 BLM: 90 TTN: 89 PHL: 89 ACY: 88 ISP: 88 JFK: 87

1PM ROunup LGA: 93 EWR: 91 BLM: 90 NYC: 89 New Brnswck: 89 TEB: 88 ACY: 87 ISP: 87 JFK: 86 TTN: 86 PHL: 85

Noon roundup; LGA: 90 EWR: 89 TEB: 88 New Brnswck: 87 BLM: 87 JFK: 85 TTN: 84 NYC: 84 (still some moisture in the overgrowth) ISP: 84 ACY: 84 PHL: 83

11AM Roundup LGA: 89 ISP: 87 EWR: 87 TEB: 86 New Brnswck: 86 BLM: 85 NYC: 85 ACY: 84 JFK: 84 TTN: 82 PHL: 81

Already 84 degrees here on what should be so far the hottest day of the season . Overnight guidance continues with a warm outlook, forecasting above normal temps overall and sveral bouts of heat. Next few days upper 80s low 90s (exceeding when mostly sunny and enhanced by recent dryness) before front pushes through with trough Wed PM - Fri. Warm back up Sat (6/27) to Mon (6/29). Ridge builds north again and we likely see some onshore component 6/30 - 7/2 but still looks warm. Once the flow goes more NW/W by thr 3rd it should be off to the races for the 4th of July weekend.

Last few runs of the GFS, Euro / ensembles showing strong ridging building into the region by 6/30 but flow could be onshore before going more NW/WNW by Jul 3. Looking hot by the 4th right now.

A dry park could rack up a few 90s this week and next weeked. Ill go 2-3 between 6/22 - 6/30 in the park and 4 or 5 in LGA/EWR.

Today's Highs (6/21) TEB: 88 NYC: 88 New Brnswck: 88 LGA: 88 EWR: 86 TTN: 86 PHL: 86 ACY: 85 ISP: 84 JFK: 82 BLM: 82

ENS showing more NE (onshore-ish) Jul 2-4 as ridge centers north again. But it is turning more N/NW as it progresses.

Up to 77, evaded the rain but was mostly cloudy from about 3:00 on after a high of 87 on Saturday. Flow is still southerly today more Florida type weather and with more sun temps will again mid- upper 80s possible closing in on 90 in the wrmer spots. Warm patter 6/22 - 6/25 ech day possible reaching 90 and the seasons first heatwave for some is likely. Storms possible with front wed pm/ thu then warmer air returns as ridging pushes east towards next Saturday. We'll see how and where the ridge centers with the tendency to go north and create more onshore flow. This time it could get more North / NW component to open July hotter and sustained for a period... Happy Fathers Day!

6/20 Highs LGA: 88 TEB: 87 EWR: 87 NYC: 86 New Brnswck: 86 ACY: 85 TTN: 85 PHL: 84 BLM: 83 JFK: 82 ISP: 82

Cool down; 6/13: NYC: 75/59 (-4) EWR: 77/58 (-4) LGA: 77/60 (-3) JFK: 73/59 (-3) TTN: 74/57 (-4) 6/14 NYC: 75/52(-6) EWR: 75/53 (-8) LGA: 75/55 (-7) JFK: 71/54 (-7) TTN: 75/52 (-6) 6/15: NYC: 75/59 (-5) EWR: 75/56 (-7) LGA: 77/62 (-2) JFK: 73/56 (-5) TTN: 75/52 (-7) 6/16: NYC: 78/60 (-3) EWR: 78/57 (-5) LGA: 80/63 (-1) JFK: 76/58 (-4) TTN: 76/53 (-6) 6/17: NYC: 77/65 (-1) EWR: 77/64 (-2) LGA: 78/65 (-1) JFK: 75/62 (-2) TTN: 78/62 (-1) --------------------------------------- 6/18: NYC: 83/65 (+1) EWR: 84/56 (+1) LGA: 86/67 (+4) JFK: 78/54 (-1) TTN: 84/63 (+2)

Been a bit back and forth but you do have to consider the tendency of the northeast weakness - feel this may adjust north of that prog. Time will tell

Avoided the showers yesterday and climbed up to 85. Already 75/67 now. Overnight guidance has this ULL/ cut off fleeing by Sunday evening with storms and clouds both today and tomorrow, as of now mostly sunny so expect temps to reach low-id 80s again. We'll see if showers and clouds are more widespread tomorrow / Fathers day. Beyond there Mon - Fri look hot with each day close to or exceeding 90 ahead of the next front Fri nd into next weekend. As we close out June 6/29 and into early July nation looks warm and ridging pushes more heat/above normal temps into the area. Still think its warm and wet (storms) . Still need to watch pattern getting stuck up the tendency of late but looking more a concern north..

360 hours away and starting to show up on th elong range extended guidance. ECM / GFS show warm above normal into the east and most of the country for that matter. Will see how it progresses.

Down to 62 last night and up to 75/63 with Partly sunny skies. 0.11 in the bucket yesterday. More southerly flow next few days, means steamy, warm and potentially wet, slow moving storms. Fri - Sun where the sun is out it'll shoot into the 80s and with Dewpoint temps in the upper 60s to low 70s be very uncomfortable. Beyond there Mon (6/22) to Fri (6/26) very warm and with enough the opportunity to rack up a few 90(+) days between storms/showers. Beyond there into the last few days of June and into early July suttle shift to more ridging showing up. Lets see how it evolves. Time to start the July 4th forecast. Overall looks warmer on latest guidance in the long run similar to Perhaps taking shape similar to Don's call in the long range (seasonal) warmer Jul-Aug..

Cool down; 6/13: NYC: 75/59 (-4) EWR: 77/58 (-4) LGA: 77/60 (-3) JFK: 73/59 (-3) TTN: 74/57 (-4) 6/14 NYC: 75/52(-6) EWR: 75/53 (-8) LGA: 75/55 (-7) JFK: 71/54 (-7) TTN: 75/52 (-6) 6/15: NYC: 75/59 (-5) EWR: 75/56 (-7) LGA: 77/62 (-2) JFK: 73/56 (-5) TTN: 75/52 (-7) 6/16: NYC: 78/60 (-3) EWR: 78/57 (-5) LGA: 80/63 (-1) JFK: 76/58 (-4) TTN: 76/53 (-6) 6/17: NYC: 78/60 (-3) EWR: 80/60 (-3) LGA: 79/63 (-2) JFK: 80/58 (-2) TTN: 76/55 (-5)

67/65 now with li rain. Clouds were widespread and never yielded yesterday. Here is that rainy day with clouds, mist and light rain. Moving from Southern California into a Southern Florida type feel by the weekend. Stuck up pattern revealing itself. Warm and wet next 7 - 10 days. Cut off / ULL meanders over the northeast Fri - Sun with a more S/ SE flow and enhanced clouds and showers. Steamy , perhaps stormy and warm when the sun comes out. By Mon (6/22) - Sat (6/28) could get hot where clouds /storms don't get in the way and if some areas can eek out 3 mostly dry days, it could be the seasons initial heatwave lots of mid / upper 80s and DT in the 60s. or more. Looks similar to first week/10 days of this month (6/3 - 6/13) but wetter. Beyond there (6/28) stuck up / more cut off ULL antics may invade the area to end June and the first few days of July. Need to watch if this is more north of previous two instances which would mean wetter. should the WAR move west and push the weakness north, itll also bring the sustained warmth and ridging that is building into the Plains and GL.

Cool down; 6/13: NYC: 75/59 (-4) EWR: 77/58 (-4) LGA: 77/60 (-3) JFK: 73/59 (-3) TTN: 74/57 (-4) 6/14 NYC: 75/52(-6) EWR: 75/53 (-8) LGA: 75/55 (-7) JFK: 71/54 (-7) TTN: 75/52 (-6) 6/15: NYC: 75/59 (-5) EWR: 75/56 (-7) LGA: 77/62 (-2) JFK: 73/56 (-5) TTN: 75/52 (-7) 6/16: NYC: 78/60 (-3) EWR: 78/57 (-5) LGA: 80/63 (-1) JFK: 76/58 (-4) TTN: 76/53 (-6)

Another California type day. Low of 53 up to 69 with onshore flow. Clouds just south of CNJ and burning off. Go from Southern California to a more Southern Florida type pattern by Saturday Overall theme continues with the cut off lingering over the northeast into Father day as the flow goes more southerly by Saturday with seemingly plenty of clouds and chances for storms. Steamier pattern until the ULL opens and shift east allowing a more SW flow by Mon - Thu and pending on storms and clouds, its plenty warm enough to rack up 90s (gotta see if clouds get in the way) Beyond there it looks like that active warm but stormy pattern continues into the end of June. Ridging looks aimed into the Rockies/Plains through the period. Way out there but the open of July could see the WAR pushing west and rockies/Plain ridge moving east finally allowing a more sustained warmup into the area. Season tendencies of course need to be considered.