mercurydime

Nope...other than the temp increase and p-type issues for the scattered precipitation instances they've mentioned for the last day or so. Interested to see how the cold wedge holds up here just east of the escarpment.

Updated GSP AFD (Changed Discussion only) - Changed Discussion -- As of 940 AM EST Saturday: Despite the widespread mid and high clouds, and patchy low clouds, temps have warmed faster than expected. Have raised highs a couple of degrees most locations as a result. This warming may also play a part in the resulting p-types of the pre-main event rain/snow showers that develop over the mountains, NC Foothills, and I-40 corridor this afternoon. With the warmer temps, the showers may be more rain than snow outside of the mountains, even with the expected evaporational cooling. Either way no significant accums are expected outside of the highest elevations. Even there, mainly a dusting is expected. Largely anticipate quasi-zonal flow aloft with weak northeasterly flow at the surface. High pressure settles across New England today and strengthens the developing northeasterly flow, prompting the developing of a cold-air damming situation east of the Appalachians. Increasing low-level WAA suggests that moist upglide will gradually tick upward throughout the day, which will result in enhanced low- to mid-level cloud cover. A few of the CAMs are advertising spotty showers from late morning onward, but profiles indicate continued dry advection in the boundary layer (courtesy of sustained northeast winds) will keep much of the precipitation from reaching the ground in lieu of simply strengthening the cold wedge. Saturday night, impacts from an approaching winter storm will begin in earnest. By 21Z, the models depict a closed upper low shifting east out of the ArkLaTex region and steering a rapidly developing surface cyclone northeast out of the Deep South. Models are now in excellent agreement that the low will track across the southern Upstate and produce widespread wintry precipitation. With the cold wedge still intact and ~850mb WAA enhancing a warm nose aloft, a developing rain-freezing rain mix will further enhance the CAD. How far north and west this warm nose will extend remains a topic of contention among the models still, but the trend over the last 24 hours has been for the CAMs to bring the warm nose farther inland, resulting in more widespread ice across the Upstate and even into parts of the Piedmont. As the 850mb low tracks north and east of our CWA, low-level flow will rapidly turn easterly by perhaps 12Z Sunday. 850mb WAA becomes increasingly anemic and the warm nose begins to diminish by Sunday evening. By this point in time, however, profiles will starting to dry, as dry cool-sector air filters into the area, scouring out the wedge. This drying should gradually deactivate ice nuclei, decreasing precip rates overall and allowing a transition back to a light, patchy, snow-sleet mix across most of the Piedmont and Upstate. The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow forecast. The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians. Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing through most of the event, allowing for an easy transition from a rain-snow mix to all snow from Saturday night onward. Precipitation intensity and coverage should drop off significantly past mid-afternoon Sunday. Patchy snow and sleet warrants slight PoPs across the area through 00Z Monday and beyond, however, especially in the mountains where NW flow snow will likely already be developing in the wake of the system. -- End Changed Discussion --

I'm going to try and set up a photo time-lapse for the event.

You still in Bostic?

And you and I need cold air. Hope to see some fall, though. Good luck to everyone west and north. Thunder snow is on my bucket list.

Yeah, slow dancing!

Confirmed F-0 tornado in eastern McDowell on Saturday night. We missed most of the heavy wind here in western McDowell, but not the rain. 2.60 inches out of the storm, and about half of that was in a ~2 hour time frame. Rain guage rolling like an odometer.

A good time to go fishin' is when you can! Glad to see you enjoyed yourself! We'll go one of these first days, hopefully.

I have not done opening day in I can't tell you when. You do any good?

Pea size hail here just east of the escarpment here in MACK-dowell!

Just over two inches here, but half of that's come in the last 3 hours or so. High today of 58, Low 48. So much for fly fishing over the next few days...

A harbinger of things to come?? Coincidence? I think not!

This is not doing much to encourage me to fly fish.

Now, that is a capital idea!

Let's hit it on a slow day, and release some DH trout.

I was there for 21 of my 25 years in the system (but you may have figured that out already). Moved on to other pursuits in 2011.

GSP has put out a SWS for the overnight.

31.3 at Casa Verde in western McDowell County. And it's a *cold* 31.3. Mercy.

I'll take drier overall as well.

37.2/23.8 up the hill. I agree. I may hold off filling up the bathtub.

Nice. Love that little part of our world.

Are you just off the Bostic-Sunshine Highway?

35.1/24.5 here on my little ridge.

35.2/24.6 here. Clear skies.