michsnowfreak

oh wow. That's way worse than here (26"). Just curious why you think it will be THAT bad...that has to be rare for Toronto.

Only time will tell. Fingers crossed.

What was the total snowfall in 2011-12 there? I always find it strange that every year when a mild pattern is showing up some start fearing 2011-12 lol. I actually don't fully disagree with you, I think its going to be a roller coaster of ups and downs, but I will be shocked if a stormy nina fails to materialize and snowfall ends up as bad as you fear

picked up 0.2" of snow this morning, quite windy and blowing a bit. First measurable snow of the season

Ann Arbor really had the extremes this week, seeing the warmest official temperature on November 9th at 81ﾟ, and the coldest official temperature today at 14ﾟ. Quite an impressive streak for a 5 day period. Detroit saw a low of 25ﾟ this morning after a high of 77ﾟ during the warm spell.

It was a beautiful, vivid Fall here. Last year was a late leaf drop.

last years leaf drop was late

Nov 10, 2020: 77°, warmest temp so late in season at Detroit Nov 13, 2019: 7°, coldest temp so early in season at Detroit What a difference a year makes

Browsing various outlook posts, it seems like the analogs that keep showing up are 1975-76 1983-84 1988-89 2007-08 2016-17 other ones include 1973-74, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2017-18

The cold produced nicely in 17-18 here. Plenty of snow Dec-Feb. Then after a March 1st snowstorm it turned cold and dry while the northeast cashed in.

Jan 11 was all winter here. Though I have a feeling by the negative hints he meant Jan 12, which is everyone's favorite winter to fear lol.

Nice work! I am no forecaster, just a climo guy. I am really seeing a lot of roller coaster weather this Winter, would you agree? Seems as though while it can happen any year, and usually does, nina is extra susceptible to having wild swings. For instance, a +2ﾟ nina January could easily have a Max of 62 and Min of -12 whereas a +2° nino January could have a Max of 49 in a Min of 9. how we arrive at the final on numbers may be a wild ride.

yup, same. The November torch was extremely impressive & despite a cold snap and snow on Thanksgiving the month still holds 4th warmest November on record here. Then December saw 20" of snow sandwiched around a torch mid month where the temperature hit 65ﾟ. January saw plenty more snow and a temperature as low as -18ﾟ at Detroit before the 2nd half of February saw the torch return with more temps in the mid 60s.

One year ago tomorrow was the largest November snowstorm on record followed by record smashing cold.

I mean don't get me wrong, a ratter is certainly possible...anything is always possible. But if the tables were turned and there were a few good winters and a bunch of ratters and someone called for a good winter, can you imagine the they would get? . One year ago today a Winter storm watch was in effect and on Veterans Day Detroit saw the largest November snowstorm on record, followed by record smashing cold. Did that foretell Winter? I think not!

88-89 was the worst strong Nina of the bunch. made no sense in many ways, it was a dry winter which defies nina climo. 99-00 was also crap but it did have a solid consecutive 6 weeks of white in Jan/Feb, surrounded by torches on either side. All the other strong ninas were above avg snow. This is starting off similar to 75-76 with a warm first half of November. Strong Nina Snowfall at Detroit (longterm avg 41") 1973-74: 49.2" 1975-76: 55.9" 1988-89: 25.1" 1998-99: 49.5" 1999-00: 23.7" 2007-08: 71.7" 2010-11: 69.1"

Yep. All this sunny, calm weather in November the Winter will NOT remember lol. I mean there's no guarantees in anything, but when you look at certain factors such as a typical active storm track in the Great Lakes during nina's, the somewhat increasing precipitation/snowfall that's been observed in this region in the past few decades, & the unfrozen waters ripe for Lake effect snow, I just cannot see how there's not plenty of fun times for the Great Lakes this Winter. That said, Im really not feeling a beavis/Josh type of Winter with nonstop cold and snow cover.

I'm all for wintry around Christmas! Obviously we are in different areas but your outlook gives me a good idea what to expect. If its as active as ninas usually are, I just can't go ratter here from a snowfall perspective regardless, but it can certainly be frustrating from a sustained perspective.

There will end up being 6 days of 70+ at Detroit which is a November record, breaking the 2015 record of 4. Several sites in Southeast Michigan had 6 or 7 days of 70+ in November 1975 but DTW officially only had 3 (several 69s). Today's high of 77, by far the warmest of the stretch, is the warmest this late in the season, beating 75 on Nov 9, 1999. An impressive stretch of Indian summer but with sunny skies, rapidly cooling nighttime temps, and the time of year it is, its a stretch that won't stick in the memory bank like other warm or cold spells do.

Are you still seeing a wintry December? This Indian summer weather is something else but I know how quickly the weather can change. La Nina typically has wintry December's.

its early November. show me this look a month from now and I'll be discouraged. Last year at this time we were days away from a record snowstorm and record smashing cold. That did not forebode winter.

With storminess very likely in any nina, im sure we will get our share of snow, but I expect wild swings.

Thanks Don! For Detroit the results are definitely a mixed bag, but the 11 years average 41.9" which is right around avg

don what are the 10 ninas that followed Nino?

I'm thinking slightly above avg temps (wild swings though), well above avg precip, and above avg snow.