Jim Marusak

just love how ugly things got in 18-24 hours of model runs. and also, if the snow total maps are to be believed, high contrast in snow from the northwest metro (Brooklyn Park) compared with much lower amounts in Cottage Grove and Hastings. and it probably wouldn't take much to shift that band 30 miles. good thing I have off work tomorrow. I'll be able to observe here in St. Paul.

i just wasn't convinced on the pressure given the location and how it was located, as the Atlantic most of the time just isn't as strong as the pacific. I have to admit I needed the actual ob before I could be totally convinced and not felt teased. that being said, those winds and the rain will still be ugly as they go thru the Nicaragua mountains.

935hPa, 140kt

is it just me, or are the remnants of Gamma making a bit of a bubble for the shear to move in to Delta? or am I way late to the ball game?

I wonder what's going to be left of the Hattiesburg area after this tornadic storm. the downtown and north side of town is looking at golf ball hail and high winds, the south side, including the airport, is looking they're about to get blasted with either the tornado itself or a pretty nasty inflow wind into this tornado. good luck to them in these next few minutes

not sure if I ever saw two tornado emergencies like that before. overlapping regular tornado or severe thunderstorm warnings? yes. this is just a very scary situation down there.

this tornado threaded the needle between the ULM radar and the airport, as the winds did a quick switch from 120 to 220 when the tornado passed. I also heard from pretty big damage over at the Pecanland Mall (their main shopping mall in the area). I just wonder what the damage reports are on the ULM campus.

moderate or high I don't think really maters at this point. it's probably more a worry now of PDS tornado Watches and normal Tornado Watches than anything else.

I'm thinking that's why to this point they didn't go from Moderate to High. But given that this event has been moderate risk since day 3, even if they keep it moderate, there's plenty of warning out there that most normal "on the street" people should at least be heeding for the possibility that yes this may get ugly. and that in and of itself I hope helps save lives, no matter what the final outcome is at this point.

actually, the RGEM is a lot better with convection ever since they made their spring 2013 upgrade, including 4dvar. before that, yea is was horrible. whatever they did then made them go from "convective trash" to "usable in convection and even decent in convective modes".

for the storm heading into Muskegon, you thinking mainly hail and gusts, or with the rotation on the west end of the storm as seen on the SRV data, is there maybe the chance of a spin-up when the storm makes landfall north of the city of Muskegon itself?

how coupled are the HRRR, 3km NAM, and other models to the current soil moisture in the region? is that maybe skewing the potential dew points high or low for tomorrow? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

quick question here, i know maybe something really small in the big scale of things. But given the much lower air traffic compared to normal, we have less cirrus cover than normal, which may allow for a few more w/m2 of solar incoming radiation to come through during the times when it clears out between any convection bands during the daytime hours. Will that little bit more solar input maybe help to break caps a bit earlier than expected before sunset?

true, maybe less chasers. but what if counties or towns are closed off in your path ahead due to quarantine, limiting escape routes? and what if offices are forced to be closed due to lack of staff from a potential quarantine?

ok folks, first off, sorry it's been way too long since I've been on this board. my mind just went elsewhere for a while. I know this has probably not been discussed a lot over at the political board. But now I am looking at the calendar and storm-chasing season is nearly here. and i know there are more than a few chasers here. And we also see a lot of problems with the Coronavirus spreading all across the country, even in the plains and dixie alley. And hopefully we don't get bad enough where possible quarrantines may just about close off certain NWS offices due to personnel forced at home (maybe including SPC), or maybe that certain towns/cities, counties, or maybe even states could become restricted to non-residents. gas prices are probably the only thing that's not going to be a potential issue. but could this coronavirus end up making storm chasing more difficult than normal this year? could it almost eliminate it in the worst case? and how could all this affect potential weather watches and warnings this year? debate is open. I just hope i'm not overthinking all of this.

well, Dr. Neil Jacobs, current acting head of NOAA, will be speaking a keynote address tomorrow morning at 8am CT at the NWA Annual meeting in Huntsville. how do you think that will go? especially any Q&A after the speech?

i'm over here attm because I have a question for a lot of peeps. someone on twitter just had his flight-tracker app on. and with the vast majority of planes staying away from Dorian, except for identifiable NOAA/USAF hurricane Hunter planes, was seeing some type of rogue flight heading right into Dorian with an Embraer 600 Legacy jet (an executive business jet, not one you wanting to fly towards a cat-4/5 hurricane). What do you think could be going on with that flight? I checked the specs available, its max service altitude is 41kft msl, and it has Rolls Royce 8000lbf thrust engines. no turbulence tolerance specs available.

yea, that is a nice hook down near there, but it sort of devolved a bit as it moves south of Carta Valley. As for the storms near Waco, the most interesting velocity signature there is in between Meridian, Whitney, and Clifton.

that all being said, I have to admit having that line on US 281 from Mineral Wells to Lampasas looks awfully ominous for i-35 eventually, and the t-storm in Mansfield may make things interesting at the stadium in the next 15-30 mins.

i thought AT&T stadium was a domed stadium.

isn't that right around the time the Dallas/Green Bay game ends and people start heading home? maybe some post-game fan safety concerns?

apparently the parts needed to get SJT up and going won't be there until Tuesday. have to admit, that's good timing.

question for gulf coast residents, especially the ones in Louisiana right now. what does it look like outside when you have rainfall rates of 6-7"/hr? latest rates in a couple of spots are in the 6-6.5"/hr if the radar estimates are close to true from Slidell radar. and I just can't imagine what the drop size would be for that high a rainfall rate. i know there's a theoretical equation that can figure that out, but reality would be the better to know than the equation at this point. and radar-estimated totals of 40+", I just can't imagine that much out of one storm. some of the worst flooding i remember was when a decaying tropical storm dumped like 20-30" in central america back in the 2000's. hopefully the radar estimates are off, on the high side.

05Z analysis of this monster system. double-barrel low. barrel 1 in northeastern Ontario near Earlton (CYXR) 992 hPa. Barrel #2, between Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, and Dayton with an estimated central pressure near 990 hPa if not 989 hPa. I've seen some strong single lows with pressures like this in the past, and they caused enough damage. But a double-barrel like this at the end of April, we're probably lucky this wasn't worse, as bad as this system was. Btw, I haven't been keeping track of all of the alerts and such in the northern end, except for my folks in northeastern PA. Has there been any severe t-storm warnings in Ontario or western Quebec with this, on top of all the chaos down here?