ValpoVike

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

That’s what I normally do when I chase. So would need a recommendation/find a hotel in one of these areas. I don’t go out and drive during the event I just sit back and hope my hotel jackpots ha

You could go to Black Hawk and stay at one of the casinos...maybe a jackpot either way.

12z ECMWF is increasing QPF in Larimer and Boulder foothills as well.   If I were chasing, I would target the Peak to Peak highway....Nederland to Estes Park area, but as mentioned it would be quite dangerous unless you got a hotel and tracked from a window .

I think the GFS may be on crack, but it is a very juicy trend on most of the models with 2"+ QPF's being pretty common up and down the foothills and the front range.

After what we went thru last August thru October, I say bring it on. Moisture rules.

For a real trip down fantasy lane, check out the GFS Kuchera numbers thru Sunday in the Larimer county foothills.

A nice little unforecasted surprise this morning of ~3" and still snowing.  Not much, but we'll take it...

I thought Denver was upgraded overnight, but I could be wrong.

EDIT:

Here is text that I found in this morning's forecast discussion:

We`ll keep the Winter Storm Warning going for the Denver and
Boulder metro areas going early this morning (until 8 am) with
the heavier band expected to slowly break down. 

21 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Models have been showing some snow for Colorado, next week maybe Thursday-Friday.

I noticed that today while browsing Pivotalweather.  Both ECMWF and GFS showing a pretty good dumping.

It has really been coming down up here for the past couple of hours. The GFS started to trend particularly juicy up here yesterday, and am hopeful that it was right. Some good banding moving slowly south from Northern Larimer, so we shall see...

7 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Crazy inversion this morning. Below about 5500 ft it's 30, above it around 50 just a few miles away.

Inversions like this are fascinating to see.  A few years ago in February, I drove down 36 from Estes where it was 53 degrees and when I got to Boulder it was snowing and 18.

4 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Yup, been here 10 years now, variability is the only constant. And most snow is in Feb/Mar/Apr/October. We sold our 25 year old John Deere in about 10 seconds before moving from SNE, cause we have a self-shoveling driveway here (faces due South). 

Also, last year (2019-20) we had the snowiest early season since we've been here, with about 2 feet by Thanksgiving- Parker had even a little more if I remember right. And sun angle is a HUGE determinant of snow removal around here- so Nov-Dec-Jan snows need a lot more work than Mar-Apr snows.

Same story here.  I moved here from a lake effect snowbelt and after my first two winters I unloaded my Cub Cadet due to being south facing.  I do have a very steep driveway but just park at the top if there is snow on it.  Probably an average of 10 days per year that I have to do that.  The most extreme example of this is the May 19, 2017 storm that dumped 41" in my area.  I kid you not...by the end of the next day it was 100% melted except under trees that had a bit of shade. 

54 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

And the Front Range gets screwed again.

 

Screw you La Nina!

Oh sure, blame it on the baby!  Never mind that we had issues with dryness before she was even born...   

I literally couldn't resist, but in all seriousness this has been a long term issue.

We had intense winds up here in Glen Haven last night.  On my home weather station I clocked 99mph at 8:40pm, and lost power shortly after.  Some fence damage, and many trees down in the neighborhood especially in the CP burn areas.

I did ok up here with a bit over 4".  I was expecting 3-6.  Definitely not a big snowfall, but I'll take anything.

12 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

I was inside but apparently about 2 PM my local airport had a temp of 70 F with a dew point of -8 F. I think that's the driest I've seen it in December here (RH 4%). Gonna have to drag out the hose and sprinkler again, never had to do that with the Xmas decorations up before.

Yesterday was crazy dry.  My home station dipped to 4% as well.

15 hours ago, Chinook said:

My area got about 2.5" of snow.

Only about 1" up here in Glen Haven.  We certainly needed a lot more.  I woke up around 2am Monday morning and noticed out my window a flame on a ridge above the North Fork trail at the edge of the CP fire.  Probably an isolated tree torching, but this fire isn't out yet and the dry pattern setting up over the next two weeks is of concern.  Crazy how this thing has survived two large snow events.

37 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The GFS, Euro, and Canadian all show measurable snow in the next 7 days north of Denver.  There's certainly a good chance of over 6" of snow for the north mountains. It is snowing in Iowa right now, so that's pretty early in the season for that area.

We can hope.  I have never wished for winter as hard as I do now, and I love snow so the bar was already set pretty high 

Loveland should be ok, RH's there this morning have recovered to 90%+, winds should be much lighter, and the fire front is in grasses.  I do think that parts of west Loveland dodged a bullet yesterday.  As for our neighborhood, it has burned thru about 30% of the neighborhood and the VFD along with the IC crews are still battling.  Fortunately since yesterday morning it appears to be active and not extreme.  Reduced wind speed should allow aviation on it today which will help a ton.  My home is furthest from the Miller Fork drainage, so I appear to be in good shape.  I personally dodged a big giant bullet (so far), but others not so lucky.

Well, that damn fire finally got us today. My neighborhood, The Retreat, was ground zero for today's fire.  This thing is an unbelievable monster. Just this morning the Sheriff office let me thru at sunrise to winterize my home since they had cut power. I took this photo from my deck at 8am before I left. At the time, the fire was still smoldering which you can see. Then at noon it went extreme and tore down the Miller Fork drainage. The other image is from Lily Lake looking over Estes Park back towards the Glen Haven area.

I sure hope not. This is crazy.  Today was the southeast side of Cameron's turn to explode. It is currently at the western edge of the CSU Mountain Campus.  The winds for Sunday early a.m. thru afternoon are of concern. 

3 hours ago, finnster said:

Hello I’ve been away from this forum for a couple months.  As with many folks in the west it’s been a very tough summer - to put it mildly. Where I live west of Fort Collins, we’ve been on high fire alert - first from a smaller fire near Rist Canyon and then Cameron Peak.  We’ve packed up our valuables a couples of times but have not had to evacuate.  I can tell you the rain and snow received earlier in September saved our bacon.  Many others have not been so fortunate.  
 

I consider it a miracle of sorts we got that storm in September.  The day before we literally had our trailer packed ready to leave.  Unfortunately it has now been 3 weeks + without any precipitation.  Not sure what is causing the massive high pressure systems to the west but this seems to be more or less a permanent feature of the weather pattern.  Until or unless there is a change in this pattern, the big fires burning now will keep going despite the fire fighters best efforts.  We need a succession of significant storms to put them out - not just one.  For now at least the weather is cooling down....

 

 

I feel exactly the same as you do about that storm in September.  It was a freak snowstorm and just at the right time.  I have a trailer full of family photos and such parked in a friends garage in Estes, and it feels like it has been going on forever.  On the bright side, I no longer care much about Covid-19.  

Crazy photo taken by the RMNP fire officer from yesterday of two pyrocumulus clouds from the Cameron Peak fire with what appears to be a lenticular cloud forming above. 

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Good Saturday morning western USA! There must be a pretty big wild fire near southern WY/northern CO border.  You can see the plume modeled in these graphics, as presented for 4-5 AM this morning, and then about the same time tomorrow morning (sinking southward). Plume origination points  are easily presented in the Mountains and CA. Some of you should be noticing smoke aloft this morning.

Finally I added a graphic for the W coast as developed by SPC yesterday... for early next week as critical fire danger risk increases with another huge west coast ridge. 

Fire is my concern...and it's plume impacts here in the east. So, i wasn't sure if anyone had seen graphics such as these.  Have a good day. 

 

 

Actually it is from two fires, Cameron Peak Fire in Northern Colorado and Mullins Fire just across into Wyoming. 

Edit: I forgot about the fire near Steamboat...make that 3 fires.

Looking quite dicey for Red Feather Lakes now with pyrocumulus to their immediate SW.  So sad to see.  Here is a webcam link of live video feed from RFL:  

3 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

That little fire keeps on going and going, soon to be in the top two largest fires in CO history if it keeps up. Consistent cooler and wetter weather can't come soon enough. That area is gorgeous.

Yeah, this fire does keep going and going.  I think we are at 6 weeks today on this fire.  Many folks around Glen Haven (and I suspect elsewhere in Larimer) have something like PTSD due to the constant threat of this thing, myself included.  With all of the beetle kill, we expected that this would happen one day.  I am definitely looking forward to tracking snowstorms...