ValpoVike

Final tally was 1.72” liquid. Really great moisture. 

I think it is basically done here. Accumulations were marred by the very high water content and the most I could measure was 5.5” due to compaction and melting. My weather station is showing 1.05” of liquid but I don’t have a heater on it so I’m not certain on the actual amount. 

About 3” here so far with a temp of 32.  

4 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

12z HRRR and GFS are ramping up snow totals

Well, there is now a warning out for the foothills for up to a foot below 8500', and up to 2 feet above...

Looks like NWS is starting to ramp up the foothills.  All of the models are now quite bullish on snowfall, and from what I can see from about 7k' and up...as well as the Palmer Divide.  NWS is highlighting 8.5k' and up, and nothing highlighted for the Palmer Divide.

Look at GFS...yowzers

11 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

18z NAM must see a lot of cold air. Dumping snow.

GFS and Euro have a lot more snow outside of the mountains than the AFD suggests

The last two events have been similar. Forecasts and AFDs have been very conservative while the GFS and Euro held steady for many days, and they seem to verify and slit the difference on accumulation. I am interested to see what happens here. 

20 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

This might be one of those times where you could take a walk uphill from your house and get snow, or downhill and get drenched. Either way, I like it- each day like this is a week less fire danger later on. Those long range summer outlooks are scary.

True and something that happens every spring. My neighbor 200’ above often receives several inches while I may get a sloppy mix, and my neighbor 300’ below is rain. All within adjacent property lines. Regarding fire danger, the state is forecasting “average”. I hope they are correct  

The models are interesting this weekend. As expected for late April, there is a massive gradient over a very short distance…with the euro at 10-12” across central Larimer and a couple of feet  from the GFS. By eyeball, about 5 miles east and a couple of hundred feet in reduced elevation - rain.  

Winds hit 46mph a few minutes ago here and increasing. Unfortunately there is a new fire start on hwy 36 near Big Elk Meadows and Pinewood Springs, northwest of Lyons.  Uggg. 

2 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

XCel energy is proactively shutting off power to a lot of homes on the front range until tomorrow. Seems a bit drastic, but then again they'll get blamed for wildfires if they didn't do it.

Inconvenient yes, but not drastic If the winds increase as expected.  The last time the area got hit with such winds was during the Marshall fire. Given that Xcel infrastructure was determined to be an ignition source, it is prudent. 

I saw that too. I think it went insane for 12z but it is April.  

12 hours ago, Chinook said:

classic look for Rockies and N Plains snow and S Plains severe (see day-4 outlook on the SPC)

 

Taking a weekend trip to MSP. Since I will be exposed to airports on both sides, I have little faith that I will have smooth travel Sunday evening 

Models showing another decent foothills hit for late weekend and Monday.  Not nearly the QPF as last storm, but still respectable. 

5 minutes ago, Chinook said:

oh by the way, 41" is red

My neighbor reports to cocorahs and he measured 37” here. A great storm. 

No worries on the backend amounts anymore. This is getting ridiculous. I have no idea how much has fallen here and I lost track many hours ago. 

43 minutes ago, Chinook said:

this webcam usually has no snow

 

Yeah and they closed all east entrances in RMNP at 5pm on Wednesday. That is unusual. 

Despite the slow, late start of heavier snow last night I received about 20" overnight.  The Point forecast shows an additional 10-18" coming with Act Two this afternoon and evening.  I share Smokey's cynical view of today's additional amounts, but we'll see.  Regardless, I'm pretty happy with what I received already so it is all gravy from here on.

Looking at storm reports, I noted that Ft Collins only received about 1".   That is a sharp gradient from here to there.

Still early, but nada up here so far. 

24 minutes ago, GansettBay said:

Based on previously experience, I suspect that the changeover could happen sooner due to the strong upslope, which models often seem to struggle to account for. This could significantly increase forecasted totals on most of the models except maybe the HRRR, which shows similar QPF outputs to others, but higher snow totals. Any thoughts?

This was discussed in the noon AFD update:

In particular, there`s more aggressiveness about the late afternoon
and evening convection and resulting heavy rain/snow and cooling
temperatures. The convection allowing models typically overdo the
intensity/coverage of the higher QPF amounts and are likely doing
that this evening, but the idea of a round of vigorous showers and
a few storms along with the resulting couple degrees extra cooling
means there`s a higher threat of getting heavy snow starting a few
hours earlier this evening.

27 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

The temp profiles will make this really interesting- 3 feet of concrete in the foothills??

 

Yeah, I am a bit concerned about that.  If the QPF verifies, and it is heavy/wet, the risk to power line infrastructure and trees could be high.  I am mentally prepared for an extended power outage.  I will admit that I still don't trust we get these crazy QPF amounts, but the trend is strong.

12 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

great point- Berthoud Pass was closed with actual avalanches affecting actual cars (rare!) last storm cycle, so I'd imagine CDOT will be very careful this cycle. If Berthoud's closed, only way to get to WP is I-70 through the tunnel then CO 9 up and around to US 40 East, quite a slog.

And I would think it possible that I70 get's hit with some closures as well.  I think your timing will be tricky.  Saturday would be way better.

51 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Thanks for the response.  My only blizzard warning was the Blizzard of '93.  We're supposed to ski @ Winter Park on Friday.  I think we take 25 south to 70 west to 40.  Think we'll be able to make it.  We have an F150 4WD.  

TW

 

Maybe the pass will be open Friday morning, but check COTRIP before heading out in the morning. 

Warning has been issued for the front range, and it has been ramped up by another foot on high end:

WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 18 to
  36 inches, with isolated totals up to 48 inches possible. Heaviest
  amounts expected along the eastern slopes of the Front Range,
  lesser amounts will occur west of the Continental Divide. Winds
  could gust as high as 35 mph.

Models have been consistent for a couple of days on a stripe of 24”+ across the higher foothills while the lower elevations have flip flopped somewhat. I am in the stripe, but given the track record this season I have tempered my expectations.