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pasnownut

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Everything posted by pasnownut

  1. pasnownut
    Not sure how much he stops in here, but I think most of us regulars try to share a mix of models and logic and try to boil it down (bad terminology I know) that makes reasonable sense, and thats what we share w/ the masses. And for the weenie posts, many here know that they are just that, and meant often for fun and not forecasts. We ARE better than that.
  2. pasnownut
    Not sure who this is pointed at, but some of us "experienced" ones where showing people how the most recent models were misrepresenting "game time" obs that didnt match. Obs were also being shared to further prove that point. Personally I did that for peeps to use/learn from as we get so hung up on the models. That is all.
  3. pasnownut
    as per 511 cams snow appears to bat aoa I81 corridor up to just above chambersburg. Keep pushin SE quickly....please and thank you. edit. snow in gettysburg as well
  4. pasnownut
    yeah from what I saw on the cams, nothing wasted over your way. Seeing a couple of the RGEM and GFS runs makes us LSV'r have a smidge of hope that we can keep thermals long enough to get a bit of flakage that sticks as the appreciable precip starts to fall.
  5. pasnownut
    looking at intellicast radar, its nice to see blues hangin on below us. Not saying a big surprise is in order, but as alluded to for the last couple days, ever hour we can hang on will help.
  6. pasnownut
    I say the same....yet here we are. We're only 2 good runs away from hearing the big model worship vaccuum sound.
  7. pasnownut
    After further review, I have a friend that grew up in Houtzdale, and I get up there several times a year with him. Beautiful area. Enjoy.
  8. pasnownut
    Welcome and enjoy. Googlin rockton to see where you are. Edit - found you....you are just south of arguably my favorite motorcycle/road trip...Straub Brewery. Love that friggin place. Drink one for me if you go there.
  9. pasnownut
    32/28 in the megalopolis of Akron btw
  10. pasnownut
    this looks closer to reality IMO
  11. pasnownut
    NAM looks to have pooped the preverbal bed early on IMO. Heres 8am map depiction, and as per what I/you just shared...its already happenin in many places that the NAM said it wouldnt be yet.
  12. pasnownut
    cams showing snow fallin in somerset/clearfield/Potter/Tioga/NEPA. show should start soon. Good luck and enjoy every friggin flake. Take pics...we dont see this often
  13. pasnownut
    some also need reminded that WAA often comes in earlier than modeled, even if its getting eaten up by dry dp's.
  14. pasnownut
    looks like a pecker ready to drip right into my cheerios
  15. pasnownut
    absolutely hysterical....and rather fitting
  16. pasnownut
    Thats about as good as we can get w/ this setup. Nice to hear they are "on board" with us weenies....
  17. pasnownut
    Oof. Add the Euro to the jog north with thermals camp. Did NOT expect that......but the term atmospheric memory comes to mind right now. I may need to go get a jockstrap and cup....this may hurt a little.
  18. pasnownut
    Yeah, thats a great reminder for folks to remember. This SHOULD be one of those situ's. Guessing that's what CTP is thinking as well.
  19. pasnownut
    Just took a peek and yep...ur right. Ticked N. Hoist flag.....once again. arghhh
  20. pasnownut
    I think your expectation is reasonable, and hopefully one that we can overachieve with. IF this new look is legit, we should see these looks hold, or get a tad better as we approach go time.
  21. pasnownut
    Yeah I guess its just a little weeble wobbling of the R/S line for the westers that came north. CAD still doin its thingy round here. As we all know, that is often an inevitable trend that seems easy to pick out cause were so used to seeing it. 6z nooner
  22. pasnownut
    I will add that I'm liking where the Op runs are headed into the weekend though. Looks like the cold press is legit and still a steady stream of chances incoming.
  23. pasnownut
    GFS didnt trend any better, and thermals retreated a skosh. Still not horrible, but was hoping to see that trend continue. Just an observation of 1 run tho. Other nooners still look ok on the front end.
  24. pasnownut
    and my last snipper WRT NAM, we hold thermals through 57hrs on NAM, and most precip has fallen by that time, so while we might taint, verbatim were in the frozen category, and not just wet. Beyond that there is a short period of rain, but temps at 33 -36 may be cold enough to hang onto whatever falls. Sometimes life about celebrating the small victories and not the BIG Win (like the Eagles had yesterday...
  25. pasnownut
    to add to the mid week convo and what Bubbler was just pointing out above CAD feature really showing up nicely on nooner NAM
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