pasnownut

Good point. Axis is NE enough to thwart cookin us too much. Were trough axis deeper, then we'd have more to worry about (other than Euro just shartin da bed a bit).

FYP

One other note is that at 114 GFS is coldest a 500's while GEPS/GEFS are warmer. Gotta love the model drama.

Great post. Like you , I looked at timestamps for periods in question and noticed much the same. Skew T's had me at 33 max and much qpf was already laid down, and column was close enough to not yet worry (but 700's to surface were scarily close). Even if I did end as drizzle/snizzle, I'd be happy to see an appreciable event. Mind you not much dissecting will matter at 4+ days out, and we should just be looking for consistency/trends to get hammered out right now, but it sure is fun to be seeing winter on the maps though.

Yep, but this is par for the normal course of play down here. Only thing I'd add to your thoughts is that while stronger primary can kill thermals, if close enough temp wise qpf can overcome marginal temps. Not saying thats the case but something to ponder.

nooner extrapolation of Z German model 1.slp slightly weaker - likely not as good for CTP qpf wise, 2. a bit slower 3. a tad colder at surface (see below) but later panels really close for LSV and show a touch warmer for Lanco ish Overall, still in the game, but nerves of steel need to come outta the closet for some of us SE'rs. The old saying you gotta smell the rain for the best snows comes to mind. I'd be smellin it. ESE winds in next panels always scare down here. Its just one run w/ many many more left. Nice to see all the same. 6z 12z

As we've been suggesting #1 sorta sets the table for #2 and yeah #2 looks a touch better. Might not lose all of our precious snowpack. If we do, #3 looks to freshen it up (verbatim). parsing over GFS progression, it has come notably further S w/ #2, IMO the -NAO should help to keep this from cutting, so I'm gonna believe what the 6z is showing for that reason.

I think we need to get closer to event 1 before getting too worried abt storm 2 (not that you are worried..hehe). Gonna be lots of wiggle n wobbles for the next few days for #2. verbatim 1038hp way up in land of kanooks is stoudt, but ridging out ahead is kiss of death. Hoping that supresses as time moves on.

just getting caught up and saw this. agree 100%

Happy New Year to all. Hoping for health and happiness to all in 2024.

I'm fine w/ slp placement at 6 days out...and likely not far enough south for much comfort down here. Hunch says it comes north like they usually do. Once the 500's clean up a bit (12z showing 2 areas closed off) me thinks thats not likely and prob what gave the 12z southern slider look.

I was resistant to this mindset, but now am starting to think more of it.... Just dont seem hungry, and its ok to stick w/ a plan when working, but when its not....

I'm not usually too upset about it as its just a game... but I'm actually pissed off today.... I dont wash jersey when winning I wash when we lose. we've been losing....time to burn it yet

I like that tick SE. Pattern is just getting established, so I'm setting realistic expectations here in Lanco, but CTP should love the nooners.

if that 1035hp holds, i hope it bowling balls due east

That is Mitch's point, in one day we went from well south to bullseye. I'm back from a few days away, and like you, I'm about to get invested in the upcoming period that we've been seeing coming for weeks. Just hoping the chips fall right for us. Looking like plenty of opps for storms as the Pineapple connection looks to keep throwin stuff our way.

Not sure of what years (but I'm sure some of the data mongers have it). Yes, there were a few years when us SE'rs had notably more snow than some true CTP locals. Early look was for this year to potentially be one of em. I'm not throwing any towels whatsoever, but as the pattern looks to get better, cold is still taking some time. I've learned a long time ago that we need to get the pattern right before any digi snowmaps start to mean much. Still look to be heading in a better direction for that anyways. Weather insnt a light switch, and patience is still needed. If 2 weeks from now were still waiting....then I'll start to worry a bit more.

Based on nooner evolution, thats more of a miller A as its one system rolling along w/ HP up north. Overrunning is when the warmer moisture rides up over cold HP and in between precip gets squeezed out aka baroclinic zone. You often have baroclinic zones during zonal flow patterns. Hope that helps a bit.

At least they are coming under us and not at or above us, so at the minimum the pattern change is happening. To what degree, dunno yet. Merry Christmas to all.

It has a few items and one is models. Maybe this helps from NCEP as they have some tools as well https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml only goes out to 6-7 days tho me thinks.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/medrhist.shtml or pic below you pick.

sure looks better and nice to have support on all major ens guidance. In my opinion, Op models should start becoming more believable in the coming days. Sure hope so.

Here's the problem.....you've offered many long lead Op maps when some of us knew it wasn't happening (last weeks non event that you thew one out many days prior), yet you troll (me) and dismiss others for what they offer that you dont agree with. Hmmm.... Cant have it both ways pal. FWIW, ANY 300 hr map in the last few years has largely been "low res" if we look at verification scores. In the spirit of Christmas, I'll offer the last olive branch as I know we both share the love of weather in hopes of better times in here, as even I am tired of all of the basing of late. I'll no longer trash your offerings that I don't agree with, but I'll point out why I disagree (its a weather disco board ya know), and if I'm wrong, I'm capable of eating crow (and like usual, I'll admit it). As I enjoy/appreciate info you provide - and have even given you credit when you point something of merit, but being dismissive when others share same things as you do and only you get the "good call" is part of the problem here. Its surely noticed. Clickiness in our group has created alot of this, and many here have played a part in creating it...you're not exempt from that...and neither am I. It would be nice for all of us to have meaningful dialog without waiting for certain people to say "its happening". Were all a bunch of novice weather geeks, but there are plenty smart enough in here to support our groups weather convo. I don't think most here get paid for this. Its just for fun. Expecting to be ignored, but I'm over our past as I'm old enough to no longer hold grudges. Merry Christmas to all...and to any that don't believe in Christ....you should go to work tomorrow

Last week my thinking was that by this weekend, good looks would start to show up on the maps. Glad to see were getting there.

thinnking of you at this difficult time bud.